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欧洲升息还没完？ECB利率升至2.5% 市场猜下一站3%

2026-09-10 21:06:04 网络 阅读（1）

欧洲中央银行(ECB)周四(10日)宣布升息1码(25个基点)，将关键存款利率从2.25%调高至2.5%，符合市场预期。不过，美伊战争造成的能源与通膨风险仍笼罩政策前景，投资人对ECB接下来将按兵不动或继续升息看法分歧。

欧洲升息还没完？ECB利率升至2.5% 市场猜下一站3%

伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)数据显示，市场会前已完全反映升息1码的可能性。ECB决策官员自美伊战争爆发以来，多次强调将依据每次会议取得的数据逐次作出决定，不会预先承诺特定利率路径。

最新数据显示，欧元区8月通膨率升至3.3%，其中能源价格年增率飙上14.3%。欧元区高度仰赖能源进口，中东战事威胁荷姆兹海峡的大宗商品运输后，油价急涨且持续剧烈波动，推动通膨重新升破ECB的2%目标。

中东冲突升级也促使市场上调通膨及升息预期，欧洲公债殖利率近几周攀上数十年高点，政府借贷成本大幅上升。

ECB今年6月已因战争引发的通膨风险，自2023年以来首度升息，将存款利率调高至2.25%，成为第一家因应这场战争升息的主要央行，随后一次会议则按兵不动。ECB总裁拉加德(Christine Lagarde)当时表示，通膨面临上行风险，经济成长则有下行风险，但决策官员不会预先设定利率方向。

安本(Aberdeen)经济学家Felix Feather认为，ECB在本次升息后仍可能长时间将利率维持在2.5%。欧元区经济表现比预期更具韧性，加上能源价格高涨及通膨预期偏高，将使决策官员继续关注物价上行风险。

不过，基础通膨与薪资压力仍在缓解，能源冲击引发广泛第二轮效应的证据也相当有限。若美国与伊朗能缓和紧张局势，能源市场压力可望下降，但短期内似乎难以实现。

德意志银行(DB-US)客户调查显示，逾三分之一受访者预期ECB最终将利率升至2.75%，四分之一认为本轮升息已在2.5%告终，另有四分之一预期终端利率将达3%，意味ECB可能还会再升息两次。

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