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"title": "科技股回档是年底前上车机会?Jefferies明星分析师看好美股11、12月强攻",
"shortTitle": "科技股回档是年底前上车机会?Jefferies明星分析师看好",
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"description": "那斯达克100周四盘中大幅反转,幅度创4月来最大,Jefferies称可能是10月修正以来最振奋发展。 Jefferies的Kirsch看好轮动扩大,年底前11、12月或有强劲表现。 BTIG的Krinsky指半导体连跌7日后或短弹,但后市仍可能下跌。",
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"content": "<p>那斯达克100指数周四盘中大幅反转,幅度创4月以来最大,被形容为「可能是10月修正开始以来最令人振奋的发展」。Jefferies分析师认为,当前震荡可能是布局年底行情前,最后几次具吸引力的进场机会之一,并预期11月与12月将有强劲表现。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6632283/l/09f6cba4915d9ee4fd6bd6dc69886506.jpg\" alt=\"科技股回档是年底前上车机会?Jefferies明星分析师看好美股11、12月强攻\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Jefferies备受推崇的技术分析师Dan Kirsch,其每日技术分析报告广受市场关注。他在周五的报告中坦言,虽然早已预期本月波动会加剧,但科技股的疲弱程度仍超出预期。</p>\n\n<p>不过,最让Kirsch感到鼓舞的是,他先前所预期的「轮动广度扩大」正在发生,且发酵力道比想像中更为猛烈。</p>\n\n<p>Kirsch认为,近期最关键的发展在于科技股与其他大盘类股(以等权重S&P 500指数 RSP 为代表)之间的走势分歧。他指出,那斯达克指数(<a data-symbol-template=\"GI:NDX:INDEX:COMMON\" href=\"#\">NDX</a>) 虽自高点拉回约5%,但等权重S&P 500指数已自低点反弹约7%至8%。</p>\n\n<p>虽然他更希望这种轮动广度的扩展能伴随科技股的强势,但这对整体市场而言仍是极具建设性的积极讯号。</p>\n\n<p>另一方面,BTIG技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky认为,半导体股连跌七个交易日后,「终于可望迎来短线反弹,但这并未改变我们对后市的整体看法,接下来可能还有下跌空间」。</p>\n\n<p>Krinsky仅找到两次费城半导体指数出现如此长连跌纪录的前例,分别发生在2002年与2008年。这两次指数都曾强劲反弹,随后却在接下来几周再度大幅下挫,跌幅分别达33%与38%。</p>\n\n<p>Kirsch仍认为,现在就宣告修正结束还言之过早。他的分析显示,标普500指数仍可能下探约7,600点的100日均线。他也与Krinsky一样,对费城半导体指数抱持疑虑,并将11,000点列为下一个重要支撑。</p>\n\n<p>Kirsch指出,目前部位拥挤程度「已明显低于夏季」。报告援引Vanda数据指出,科技股曝险已接近中性,近期跌势应已使曝险进一步降低。</p>\n\n<p>最后,Kirsch指出,科技股走弱是推动美债殖利率下滑的主要力量之一。他对美国10年期公债殖利率的目标为5.00%,之后则看向4.8%。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20802.html\" title=\"欧洲正认清一个现实:川普越来越偏向普丁\">欧洲正认清一个现实:川普越来越偏向普丁</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20804.html\" title=\"辉达RTX Spark笔电开卖!大模型暴瘦85% 740亿参数塞进22.1GB\">辉达RTX Spark笔电开卖!大模型暴瘦85% 740亿参数塞进22.1GB</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20810.html\" title=\"外资持有美债规模8月回升 加拿大、比利时增最多 中国砍到18年低点\">外资持有美债规模8月回升 加拿大、比利时增最多 中国砍到18年低点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20733.html\" title=\"IMF估日银将再升息一次 后续应维持弹性与财政纪律\">IMF估日银将再升息一次 后续应维持弹性与财政纪律</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20760.html\" title=\"能源供应警报连响!美油突破100美元、布兰特逼近110美元\">能源供应警报连响!美油突破100美元、布兰特逼近110美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20769.html\" title=\"〈能源盘后〉油价周线连二涨 布兰特原油登上110美元五个月首见\">〈能源盘后〉油价周线连二涨 布兰特原油登上110美元五个月首见</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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"createdAt": "2026-10-16T14:50:02.000Z",
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