天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-中国新房价格续跌小型城市探底极端分化下复苏路漫漫

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中国新房价格续跌小型城市探底极端分化下复苏路漫漫

2026-10-19 15:25:45 网络阅读（1）
根据《路透》依据中国国家统计局公布数据计算，今年9月份中国新屋价格月减0.1%，降幅与8月相同，延续了长达33年多的景气低迷。若与去年同期相比，9月新屋价格年减2.8%，虽然较8月3.0%的跌幅略微收窄，但自2023年6月以来仍持续走低。
中国新房价格续跌小型城市探底极端分化下复苏路漫漫
房市长期不振已成为中国经济面临的最大挑战之一，严重打击消费者信心与地方政府财政收入。
与过往房价全面同涨同跌不同，当前中国房市正呈现显著的分化趋势。中原地产分析师Zhang Dawei表示：「全国房价普遍上涨的时代已彻底结束，结构性分化将成为市场常态。」
在政策放宽与8月补助奖励下，以上海为首的一线城市受中古屋(二手房)交易带动逐步回稳，二线城市趋于稳定，然而三四线等小型城市的预售屋与中古屋价格不论月减或年减均持续下探，短期内难见反弹。
针对房市后续走势，东吴证券首席经济学家Zhe Lu指出，历经多年收缩后，市场正处于「周期转折点的前夕」。他分析，虽然复苏的具体路径与规模仍待确定，但「未来进一步下行的空间已远比往年有限」。
Lu补充，自今年2月以来一线城市中古屋价格已连续7个月上扬，预计全国房价将在未来1至2年内趋于稳定。根据对1970年至2025年间57个经济体共190次房市下行周期的历史数据分析，房市低迷平均持续约23个季度，而中国房市至今已调整20个季度，预计房市可望在未来12至24个月内触底。
为提振小型城市的购屋需求，中国央行与金融监管机构于9月下旬推出了房屋贷款利息补贴政策，将适用购屋总价上限设定为150万人民币，但此金额在一线城市甚至不足以购买一房一厅的公寓。
房产贬值使许多屋主选择增加储蓄而非消费，拖累国内整体需求，今年前九个月的房地产投资与房屋销售额降幅均进一步扩大。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)资深经济学家 Sheana Yue 在研究报告中评估：「国家主导的投资与高科技出口预计将是2027年经济成长的主要支柱，但疲软的家庭消费与长期低迷的房市将持续压抑国内经济，限制这些成长动能对整体经济的带动效果。」
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