天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI短线杂音难免，基本面仍是最大底气

加权股价指数近6个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至2026/10/14）

野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI短线杂音难免，基本面仍是最大底气

野村脚勤观点：
AI短线杂音难免，基本面仍是最大底气
近期市场担忧中国长鑫存储扩产恐加剧记忆体供给压力，但中国厂商目前仍难以取得最先进的EUV设备，即使技术有所突破，若无法有效提升量产良率，技术再好也是枉然，因此我们评估此事件对整体记忆体市场冲击相对有限，而目前台厂记忆体现货与合约价格仍存在一倍以上的价差，营收与获利仍有望逐季成长。被动元件方面，MLCC第二季已针对通路商调涨过一波价格，而大型ODM客户今年以来尚未调涨价格，预期今年Q4至明年Q1将迎来新一波涨价，幅度约10%～30%。目前股市位居高位，任何风吹草动都可能成为短线回档理由，市场焦点也逐渐从题材与资金追捧，转向企业营收、订单能见度及产品规格升级等基本面议题。Vera Rubin逐步进入实际出货阶段，相关供应链同时受惠拉货放量与产品单价提升，基本面支撑将更加明确，仍是后续台股布局重点。

经理人视角：

大盘利多因素：
（一）AI资本支出强劲：四大CSP 2027年资本支出上修至1兆美元，AI基础建设的投资循环尚未见顶
（二）Vera Rubin出货：预期Q4末~明年Q1初进入大量量产阶段，相关供应链可望看到月营收显著成长
（三）获利上修趋势不变：野村投信内部股票池估计2026年EPS YoY上修至77.3%，连续第9个月上修
大盘利空因素：
（一）评价面仍有压力：Fed进入升息循环、美债殖利率突破5.3%，短线或为评价面带来压力
（二）CSP自由现金流转负：短期对资本支出影响应属有限，但若加速恶化，或影响未来资本支出节奏

行情进入财报验收期，聚焦两大关键
随着S&P 500企业进入第三季财报公布高峰，AI相关股票也迎来获利检验，近期盘面震荡未必代表趋势反转，而是股价累积可观涨幅后，市场更关注企业获利能否跟上。接下来将关注两大重点：一是四大云端服务供应商(CSP)的资本支出在法说会公布后是否有调整，二是本周(10/15)台积电法说会；由于今年AI相关资本支出大致已经底定，市场焦点转向明年资本支出能否进一步上修，以及AI需求是否持续强劲。只要四大CSP持续加码AI投资，台积电对需求与扩产展望也维持乐观，就代表AI成长动能仍有基本面支撑，即使短线受到财报或评价压力干扰，也无须因一时的股价震荡而过度担忧AI长期趋势。

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【野村投信赞助刊登】

警语

注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615台北市信义路五段7号30楼(台北101大楼)客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：www.nomurafunds.com.tw 上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书(或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用(境外基金含分销费用)已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书(或其中译本)或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站(https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw)中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书(投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】

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关注四大CSP资本支出与10/15台积电法说，Vera Rubin将量产，AI供应链营收有望放大。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/l/c08511142323a3e7cc11dbf98deb8a75.jpg", "content": "加权股价指数近6个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至2026/10/14）\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/l/c08511142323a3e7cc11dbf98deb8a75.jpg\" alt=\"野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI短线杂音难免，基本面仍是最大底气\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"189\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4.021164021164021\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/m/f90bea39fdf45ec1aad06aaee124100d.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/l/f90bea39fdf45ec1aad06aaee124100d.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/l/f90bea39fdf45ec1aad06aaee124100d.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/xl/f90bea39fdf45ec1aad06aaee124100d.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630948/xxl/f90bea39fdf45ec1aad06aaee124100d.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n野村脚勤观点： \nAI短线杂音难免，基本面仍是最大底气 \n近期市场担忧中国长鑫存储扩产恐加剧记忆体供给压力，但中国厂商目前仍难以取得最先进的EUV设备，即使技术有所突破，若无法有效提升量产良率，技术再好也是枉然，因此我们评估此事件对整体记忆体市场冲击相对有限，而目前台厂记忆体现货与合约价格仍存在一倍以上的价差，营收与获利仍有望逐季成长。被动元件方面，MLCC第二季已针对通路商调涨过一波价格，而大型ODM客户今年以来尚未调涨价格，预期今年Q4至明年Q1将迎来新一波涨价，幅度约10%～30%。目前股市位居高位，任何风吹草动都可能成为短线回档理由，市场焦点也逐渐从题材与资金追捧，转向企业营收、订单能见度及产品规格升级等基本面议题。Vera Rubin逐步进入实际出货阶段，相关供应链同时受惠拉货放量与产品单价提升，基本面支撑将更加明确，仍是后续台股布局重点。\n\n经理人视角：\n\n大盘利多因素： \n（一）AI资本支出强劲：四大CSP 2027年资本支出上修至1兆美元，AI基础建设的投资循环尚未见顶 \n（二）Vera Rubin出货：预期Q4末~明年Q1初进入大量量产阶段，相关供应链可望看到月营收显著成长 \n（三）获利上修趋势不变：野村投信内部股票池估计2026年EPS YoY上修至77.3%，连续第9个月上修 \n大盘利空因素： \n（一）评价面仍有压力：Fed进入升息循环、美债殖利率突破5.3%，短线或为评价面带来压力 \n（二）CSP自由现金流转负：短期对资本支出影响应属有限，但若加速恶化，或影响未来资本支出节奏\n\n行情进入财报验收期，聚焦两大关键 \n随着S&P 500企业进入第三季财报公布高峰，AI相关股票也迎来获利检验，近期盘面震荡未必代表趋势反转，而是股价累积可观涨幅后，市场更关注企业获利能否跟上。接下来将关注两大重点：一是四大云端服务供应商(CSP)的资本支出在法说会公布后是否有调整，二是本周(10/15)台积电法说会；由于今年AI相关资本支出大致已经底定，市场焦点转向明年资本支出能否进一步上修，以及AI需求是否持续强劲。只要四大CSP持续加码AI投资，台积电对需求与扩产展望也维持乐观，就代表AI成长动能仍有基本面支撑，即使短线受到财报或评价压力干扰，也无须因一时的股价震荡而过度担忧AI长期趋势。\n\n<a href=\"https://money.nomurafunds.com.tw/articles.html?c=8&utm_source=cnYES&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=Campaignsite&utm_content=articles\">阅读更多精彩文章</a>\n\n【野村投信赞助刊登】\n\n警语\n\n \n\n注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615台北市信义路五段7号30楼(台北101大楼)客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：<a href=\"http://www.nomurafunds.com.tw\">www.nomurafunds.com.tw</a> 上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书(或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用(境外基金含分销费用)已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书(或其中译本)或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站(https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw)中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书(投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20912.html\" title=\"AI股重挫、CoreWeave债务疑虑升温巨亨买基金：单一企业风险不等同产业反转\">AI股重挫、CoreWeave债务疑虑升温巨亨买基金：单一企业风险不等同产业反转</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20888.html\" title=\"欧洲多国爆示威法国逾2000人被捕、马克宏谴责暴力\">欧洲多国爆示威法国逾2000人被捕、马克宏谴责暴力</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20901.html\" title=\"法国示威演变为暴力动乱逾1800人被捕政治阵营相互指责\">法国示威演变为暴力动乱逾1800人被捕政治阵营相互指责</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20855.html\" title=\"乌克兰命运由三强决定？普丁邀川普、习近平谈停战排除泽伦斯基\">乌克兰命运由三强决定？普丁邀川普、习近平谈停战排除泽伦斯基</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20918.html\" title=\"多重供应冲击全球粮食通膨恐加剧并持续至2027年\">多重供应冲击全球粮食通膨恐加剧并持续至2027年</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-20917.html\" title=\"局势严峻下很招！德媒：福斯拟将全球60万员工薪资「冻涨」至2030年\">局势严峻下很招！德媒：福斯拟将全球60万员工薪资「冻涨」至2030年</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6630948", "createdAt": "2026-10-19T09:11:27.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-19T09:26:12.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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