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每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险

2026-10-21 14:29:43 网络 阅读(1)

高盛集团(GS-US) 指出,受中东战争影响,过去一年全球石油海运成本暴涨约6倍,且运费短期内恐将持续居高不下。

每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险

包括 Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby 在内的高盛分析师团队于报告中指出,目前原油运费均价已飙升至每桶 20 美元以上,远高于一年前的 3 美元。

此波涨幅包含荷姆兹海峡高达 7 美元的战事风险溢价,以及燃油成本上涨与船对船转运(ship-to-ship transfers)影响各贡献的 4 美元。

高盛分析师表示,高运费长期化,加上航运遭袭风险加剧、石油基础设施受损,以及地缘政治风险溢价居高不下,均为布兰特原油(Brent)价格带来上行风险。

目前,高盛的基本情境预估为布兰特原油年底前跌至每桶 90 美元。

美国与伊朗的战争导致波斯湾及周边海域船舶遭到攻击,冲击全球航运市场。冲突初期,经由荷姆兹海峡运输的货运量骤减,但此后已回升。目前,船舶穿梭这条冲突水道运送原油,再转装至大型油轮,送往炼油厂。

分析师指出,高昂的原油运费可能「推升原油到岸价格,进而压低炼油业者的整体原油需求」。同时炼油厂也可能转向寻求邻近供应商,进而改变既有的贸易格局。

就目前而言,分析师认为只要中东冲突维持现状,支撑原油运费高档震荡的因素就将持续存在。报告并补充,目前在波斯湾与阿曼湾(Gulf of Oman)航行的油轮中,每日有近6分之1正投入船对船转运作业。

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      "title": "从盟友到互呛 川普、泽伦斯基怎么了?三大争端一次看",
      "shortTitle": "从盟友到互呛 川普、泽伦斯基怎么了?三大争端一次看",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634798/l/df27875d36c9ad654a133055f991081d.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T03:44:26.000Z",
      "description": "川普与泽伦斯基因攻击俄罗斯炼油厂、军援与情报问题频频交锋,美乌关系出现裂痕
川普批泽伦斯基不知所云,并抱怨美国给很多、乌克兰却未回报;乌方拒停打俄国能源目标
美国未批准爱国者拦截飞弹转让,乌方又称星盾、星链受限并忧情报中断",
      "pv": 1,
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    {
      "id": 21261,
      "title": "CoreWeave股价腰斩还有压力 汇丰看再跌37%、目标价剩39美元",
      "shortTitle": "CoreWeave股价腰斩还有压力 汇丰看再跌37%、目标价",
      "img": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T03:33:34.000Z",
      "description": "汇丰维持CoreWeave「减码」与39美元目标价,称仍有约37.2%下跌空间。
汇丰估CoreWeave 2027年每百万瓦营收约1200万美元,低于超大规模云端业者的1700万至1800万美元。
大型语言模型成长放缓与殖利率攀升,恐削弱即期算力需求并压抑新兴云端业者扩产。",
      "pv": 1,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21262,
      "title": "高通传11月起全球裁员 加速半导体业务多元化",
      "shortTitle": "高通传11月起全球裁员 加速半导体业务多元化",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634758/l/d7247aa933e131979f3118c74f68b363.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T03:30:05.000Z",
      "description": "高通传将在年度绩效评估后全球裁员,11月起发通知,目的是强化绩效导向文化。
执行长Amon称将依业务优先、组织需求与员工技能决定裁员;高通全球约5.2万人。
公司加速拓展AI资料中心与非手机业务,将2029非手机营收目标自220亿美元上调至400亿美元。",
      "pv": 1,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21268,
      "title": "不必跟进降价促销!爱迪达原价照卖、关税退款助攻 获利预测上修",
      "shortTitle": "不必跟进降价促销!爱迪达原价照卖、关税退款助攻 获利预测上修",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634618/l/166470c1e800ea594ab1af81a87076c6.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T04:40:03.000Z",
      "description": "爱迪达因获美国关税退款及热销商品可原价销售,周二上修全年获利预测。
第3季营业利益年增37%至10.08亿欧元创新高,并获约2亿欧元关税退款。
全年营业利益估25亿欧元,高于先前23亿与市场估24亿;ADR一度涨3.9%。",
      "pv": 1,
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      "name": "实时",
      "path": "/hour"
    },
    {
      "id": 21274,
      "title": "每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险",
      "shortTitle": "每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634885/l/417bfca1789c2cd721738aa7cf796014.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T05:57:45.000Z",
      "description": "高盛集团(GS-US) 指出,受中东战争影响,过去一年全球石油海运成本暴涨约6倍,且运费短期内恐将持续居高不下。 包括 Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby 在内的高盛分析师团队于报告中指出,目前原油运费均价已飙升至每桶 20 美元以上,远高于一年前的 3 美元。 此波涨幅包含荷姆兹海峡高达 7 美元的战事风险溢价,以及燃油成本上涨与船对船转运(ship-to-ship transfers)影响各贡献的 4 美元。 高盛分析师表示,高运费长期化,加上航运遭袭风险加剧、石油基础设施受损,",
      "pv": 1,
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    {
      "id": 21275,
      "title": "鑫创电子新专案数量暴增5倍 三大核心市场布局扩大",
      "shortTitle": "鑫创电子新专案数量暴增5倍 三大核心市场布局扩大",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634941/l/21f4f50a4e9be023bd3d83cc67740690.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T05:50:17.000Z",
      "description": "鑫创电子(6680-TW)表示,随着全球国防自主化、智慧交通及工业自动化加速导入边缘AI,公司积极扩大三大核心市场布局,今年新专案与新产品开案量已突破去年同期5倍,市场拓展与产品开发动能持续升温。 鑫创电子董事长许育瑞指出,AI应用正从概念验证走向实际部署,带动军工、智慧交通及工业自动化市场对高可靠性边缘AI平台的需求。其中,军工无人载具、自动驾驶及工业机器人等自主系统,须在通讯受限、极端环境及即时决策等条件下运作,对运算效能、散热能力及系统可靠性提出更高要求。 在军工市场方面,许育瑞表示,强固",
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      "name": "实时",
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    },
    {
      "id": 21276,
      "title": "川普金主选前2周开砲:共和党去年减税是错的 川普对盟友关税战是「灾难」",
      "shortTitle": "川普金主选前2周开砲:共和党去年减税是错的 川普对盟友关税战",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634909/l/9a4bfec60a181d0f1bbf4c4b5d6d49e9.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T05:30:12.000Z",
      "description": "Griffin称共和党期中选举前景艰难,预测国会至少一院恐失守,众院最吃紧、参院胶着。
他批川普对加拿大、欧洲等盟友加征关税助长通膨、切断供应链,9月CPI年增3.7%。
Griffin并指去年减税是错误,美国债务已逾40兆美元;对伊朗战争与移民政策也表达批评。",
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    {
      "id": 21277,
      "title": "AI圈最大骗局?全球大模型排行榜遭质疑 高分不等于好用",
      "shortTitle": "AI圈最大骗局?全球大模型排行榜遭质疑 高分不等于好用",
      "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634799/l/f85efc3a575611f10556bedf083f225e.jpg",
      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T05:30:11.000Z",
      "description": "Hugging Face高层指现有AI评测有局限,AI代理时代表现受工具呼叫、执行框架与任务环境影响。
MMLU、GPQA、SWE-bench等跑分可比较技术,但高分未必能完成真实工作,且不同设定结果难直接比较。
企业选模型更看任务完成率、成本、安全与可重复性,竞争焦点正从榜单转向实际系统表现。",
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      "id": 21218,
      "title": "法国将部署军队反恐力量 应对下一轮示威活动",
      "shortTitle": "法国将部署军队反恐力量 应对下一轮示威活动",
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      "createdAt": "2026-10-21T01:14:52.000Z",
      "description": "法国24日示威活动前夕,法国政府将部署「哨兵」行动士兵。
内政部长努内兹称,士兵将负责固定看守,分担执法压力。
总理勒科尔尼说,维稳力量机动性不足。",
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    "title": "每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险",
    "shortTitle": "每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险",
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    "description": "高盛集团(GS-US) 指出,受中东战争影响,过去一年全球石油海运成本暴涨约6倍,且运费短期内恐将持续居高不下。 包括 Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby 在内的高盛分析师团队于报告中指出,目前原油运费均价已飙升至每桶 20 美元以上,远高于一年前的 3 美元。 此波涨幅包含荷姆兹海峡高达 7 美元的战事风险溢价,以及燃油成本上涨与船对船转运(ship-to-ship transfers)影响各贡献的 4 美元。 高盛分析师表示,高运费长期化,加上航运遭袭风险加剧、石油基础设施受损,",
    "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634885/l/417bfca1789c2cd721738aa7cf796014.jpg",
    "content": "<p>高盛集团(<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:GS:STOCK:COMMON\" href=\"#\">GS-US</a>) 指出,受中东战争影响,过去一年全球石油海运成本暴涨约6倍,且运费短期内恐将持续居高不下。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6634885/l/417bfca1789c2cd721738aa7cf796014.jpg\" alt=\"每桶运费从3美元飙破20美元 高盛示警油价上涨风险\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>包括 Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby 在内的高盛分析师团队于报告中指出,目前原油运费均价已飙升至每桶 20 美元以上,远高于一年前的 3 美元。</p>\n\n<p>此波涨幅包含荷姆兹海峡高达 7 美元的战事风险溢价,以及燃油成本上涨与船对船转运(ship-to-ship transfers)影响各贡献的 4 美元。</p>\n\n<p>高盛分析师表示,高运费长期化,加上航运遭袭风险加剧、石油基础设施受损,以及地缘政治风险溢价居高不下,均为布兰特原油(Brent)价格带来上行风险。</p>\n\n<p>目前,高盛的基本情境预估为布兰特原油年底前跌至每桶 90 美元。</p>\n\n<p>美国与伊朗的战争导致波斯湾及周边海域船舶遭到攻击,冲击全球航运市场。冲突初期,经由荷姆兹海峡运输的货运量骤减,但此后已回升。目前,船舶穿梭这条冲突水道运送原油,再转装至大型油轮,送往炼油厂。</p>\n\n<p>分析师指出,高昂的原油运费可能「推升原油到岸价格,进而压低炼油业者的整体原油需求」。同时炼油厂也可能转向寻求邻近供应商,进而改变既有的贸易格局。</p>\n\n<p>就目前而言,分析师认为只要中东冲突维持现状,支撑原油运费高档震荡的因素就将持续存在。报告并补充,目前在波斯湾与阿曼湾(Gulf of Oman)航行的油轮中,每日有近6分之1正投入船对船转运作业。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21243.html\" title=\"下一步三方会谈?  乌克兰问题会谈在挪威举行 美特使周三赴俄见普丁\">下一步三方会谈?  乌克兰问题会谈在挪威举行 美特使周三赴俄见普丁</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21288.html\" title=\"股价3日狂飙逾30% 「人形机器人第一股」宇树科技发布警讯\">股价3日狂飙逾30% 「人形机器人第一股」宇树科技发布警讯</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21275.html\" title=\"鑫创电子新专案数量暴增5倍 三大核心市场布局扩大\">鑫创电子新专案数量暴增5倍 三大核心市场布局扩大</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21268.html\" title=\"不必跟进降价促销!爱迪达原价照卖、关税退款助攻 获利预测上修\">不必跟进降价促销!爱迪达原价照卖、关税退款助攻 获利预测上修</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21218.html\" title=\"法国将部署军队反恐力量 应对下一轮示威活动\">法国将部署军队反恐力量 应对下一轮示威活动</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21290.html\" title=\"50+港口!欧洲地中海多国工会拟10月30日联合罢工 船期、装卸面临延误风险\">50+港口!欧洲地中海多国工会拟10月30日联合罢工 船期、装卸面临延误风险</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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