天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-法国新一波示威来袭！家乐福股价重挫、精品免税购物受波及基金经理人警告：政治真空恐拖累成长

法国政府的借贷成本近日攀抵24年以来最高水准，社会动荡正加深投资人对财政前景的疑虑。由于周六(24日)将出现新一波示威，基金经理人正在评估，若局势持续动荡，是否会削弱经济成长、打击市场信心，并使政府更难实现原定的预算节支目标。

法国新一波示威来袭！家乐福股价重挫、精品免税购物受波及基金经理人警告：政治真空恐拖累成长

法国政府能否通过预算案？

法国政府计划将财政赤字占国内生产毛额(GDP)比率，从2026年预估的5.4%，降至2027年的5%。法国国民议会预定下周二(27日)恢复讨论预算案中的税收措施，相关措施旨在节省支出，但反对派议员正在抵制这些计划。

法国外贸银行投资银行部(Natixis CIB)欧非中东(EMEA)经济研究主管Alain Durré表示，政府已经下定决心避免借贷成本大幅攀升，可能试图援引宪法第49.3条，或透过行政命令，坚持原定财政目标。第49.3条允许政府在未经国民议会最终表决的情况下推动法案，除非议员成功通过不信任动议。

Durré补充，这些措施可能有助于平息市场不安、恢复投资人信心。他认为近期法国主权债务承受的压力，主要来自策略性的投资组合调整，传统上采取买进并持有策略的投资人「仍在场外观望」。

10年期法国公债(OAT)殖利率本周四上升11个基点，攀抵2002年以来最高水准，这使法国与德国10年期公债殖利率的利差，扩大至2011年11月以来最大。德国公债是衡量欧元区债务市场的重要基准。

荷兰国际集团(ING)法国与瑞士资深经济学家Charlotte de Montpellier表示，社会动荡「为原本已令法国资产饱受压力的预算与政治疑虑，再增添一层不确定性」，也「进一步强化这个观感：未来任何一届政府，都将难以推动必要的改革与节支措施」。

英国跨境支付公司Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan说：「2027年预算案能否在国会过关，目前仍不明朗。即使顺利通过，法案似乎也将充斥左右两派的妥协，导致赤字问题未能获得充分处理。」

社会动荡将如何影响法国经济成长？

法国周六将有新一波示威活动，工会支持的全国罢工与抗议日则订于11月5日。反建制的「黄背心」运动人士也呼吁举行更多集会。

ING的de Montpellier在10月20日、上周末暴力事件发生后发布的报告中指出，市场或许能承受短暂的社会动荡，「但若信心持续流失，可能造成更大的影响」。

她表示：「这些事件使原本就不乐观的经济前景进一步恶化。我们原先预估法国2026年国内生产毛额(GDP)成长率仅为0.3%，2027年为0.6%。如果动荡持续、信心进一步恶化，或市场紧张情势升高，经济成长可能更疲弱。」

根据de Montpellier引用的法国国家统计与经济研究所(INSEE)估计，2018年第4季的「黄背心」运动使法国GDP成长率折损0.1个百分点。法国央行(Banque de France)的数据则显示，2023年春季反对退休制度改革的抗议和罢工，使当年第1季GDP成长率折损约0.1个百分点。

de Montpellier在指出，暴力事件可能使民众避开市中心，促使游客延后行程，也可能让企业延后投资。

法国外贸银行投资银行部的Durré表示，在最新一波抗议爆发前，法国消费者信心已接近历史低点，代表法国经济几乎没有余裕承受新的总体经济冲击。

他补充，这波动荡为市场带来「两项重要警讯」，第一，持续的社会动荡可能拖累GDP成长，第二，市场担心政治压力可能使政府无法推动关键支出削减计划。他认为无论是哪一种情况，都会扩大财政赤字，并使赤字占GDP比超过政府设定的5%目标。

哪些法国产业最容易受到冲击？

法国CAC 40指数过去一个月以来下跌4.5%。ING指出，零售、旅宿与观光，以及运输与物流业，是最直接受到社会动荡影响的产业。

de Montpellier表示，商店与购物中心可能面临人流减少、暂停营业及销售损失，饭店、咖啡馆、餐厅与旅游服务业则可能失去难以改期的消费活动。她补充，如果动荡持续，运输与物流业也可能受到冲击。

法国大型连锁超市家乐福(Carrefour)本周三股价重挫逾14%，因该公司下修获利展望并缩减投资，理由是社会动荡与能源成本上升正在打击消费者信心。执行长Alexandre Bompard表示，法国正面临「前所未有的局面」。

ING引述法国商会网路的预测指出，截至周二，已有超过2,000家企业直接受到影响。

Carmignac投资委员会成员兼投资组合顾问Kevin Thozet表示，这波动荡的影响可能远超过直接暴露于抗议活动的企业。

Thozet说：「对股票市场而言，这对银行业并没有帮助，因为股权资金成本提高。不确定性若持续，也可能拖慢贷款成长并引发信用问题。」

法国精品产业的销售额大多来自海外市场，例如LVMH的本土市场直接曝险相对有限，法国市场仅占其2025年营收的8%。不过Thozet指出，示威活动可能打击观光，进而影响免税购物，而免税购物约占LVMH在法国营收的20%。

他补充：「政治真空若再持续六个月，对市场、经济与企业家而言，都是非常漫长的一段时间。」

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新一波示威恐拖累GDP与信心；零售、旅宿观光、运输物流受冲击，家乐福股价重挫逾14%。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637115/l/f79ecd013ec1aee1f33776c95cf79e98.jpg", "content": "法国政府的借贷成本近日攀抵24年以来最高水准，社会动荡正加深投资人对财政前景的疑虑。由于周六(24日)将出现新一波示威，基金经理人正在评估，若局势持续动荡，是否会削弱经济成长、打击市场信心，并使政府更难实现原定的预算节支目标。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6637115/l/f79ecd013ec1aee1f33776c95cf79e98.jpg\" alt=\"法国新一波示威来袭！家乐福股价重挫、精品免税购物受波及基金经理人警告：政治真空恐拖累成长\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<h6>法国政府能否通过预算案？</h6>\n\n法国政府计划将财政赤字占国内生产毛额(GDP)比率，从2026年预估的5.4%，降至2027年的5%。法国国民议会预定下周二(27日)恢复讨论预算案中的税收措施，相关措施旨在节省支出，但反对派议员正在抵制这些计划。\n\n法国外贸银行投资银行部(Natixis CIB)欧非中东(EMEA)经济研究主管Alain Durré表示，政府已经下定决心避免借贷成本大幅攀升，可能试图援引宪法第49.3条，或透过行政命令，坚持原定财政目标。第49.3条允许政府在未经国民议会最终表决的情况下推动法案，除非议员成功通过不信任动议。\n\nDurré补充，这些措施可能有助于平息市场不安、恢复投资人信心。他认为近期法国主权债务承受的压力，主要来自策略性的投资组合调整，传统上采取买进并持有策略的投资人「仍在场外观望」。\n\n10年期法国公债(OAT)殖利率本周四上升11个基点，攀抵2002年以来最高水准，这使法国与德国10年期公债殖利率的利差，扩大至2011年11月以来最大。德国公债是衡量欧元区债务市场的重要基准。\n\n荷兰国际集团(ING)法国与瑞士资深经济学家Charlotte de Montpellier表示，社会动荡「为原本已令法国资产饱受压力的预算与政治疑虑，再增添一层不确定性」，也「进一步强化这个观感：未来任何一届政府，都将难以推动必要的改革与节支措施」。\n\n英国跨境支付公司Ebury市场策略主管Matthew Ryan说：「2027年预算案能否在国会过关，目前仍不明朗。即使顺利通过，法案似乎也将充斥左右两派的妥协，导致赤字问题未能获得充分处理。」\n\n<h6>社会动荡将如何影响法国经济成长？</h6>\n\n法国周六将有新一波示威活动，工会支持的全国罢工与抗议日则订于11月5日。反建制的「黄背心」运动人士也呼吁举行更多集会。\n\nING的de Montpellier在10月20日、上周末暴力事件发生后发布的报告中指出，市场或许能承受短暂的社会动荡，「但若信心持续流失，可能造成更大的影响」。\n\n她表示：「这些事件使原本就不乐观的经济前景进一步恶化。我们原先预估法国2026年国内生产毛额(GDP)成长率仅为0.3%，2027年为0.6%。如果动荡持续、信心进一步恶化，或市场紧张情势升高，经济成长可能更疲弱。」\n\n根据de Montpellier引用的法国国家统计与经济研究所(INSEE)估计，2018年第4季的「黄背心」运动使法国GDP成长率折损0.1个百分点。法国央行(Banque de France)的数据则显示，2023年春季反对退休制度改革的抗议和罢工，使当年第1季GDP成长率折损约0.1个百分点。\n\nde Montpellier在指出，暴力事件可能使民众避开市中心，促使游客延后行程，也可能让企业延后投资。\n\n法国外贸银行投资银行部的Durré表示，在最新一波抗议爆发前，法国消费者信心已接近历史低点，代表法国经济几乎没有余裕承受新的总体经济冲击。\n\n他补充，这波动荡为市场带来「两项重要警讯」，第一，持续的社会动荡可能拖累GDP成长，第二，市场担心政治压力可能使政府无法推动关键支出削减计划。他认为无论是哪一种情况，都会扩大财政赤字，并使赤字占GDP比超过政府设定的5%目标。\n\n<h6>哪些法国产业最容易受到冲击？</h6>\n\n法国CAC 40指数过去一个月以来下跌4.5%。ING指出，零售、旅宿与观光，以及运输与物流业，是最直接受到社会动荡影响的产业。\n\nde Montpellier表示，商店与购物中心可能面临人流减少、暂停营业及销售损失，饭店、咖啡馆、餐厅与旅游服务业则可能失去难以改期的消费活动。她补充，如果动荡持续，运输与物流业也可能受到冲击。\n\n法国大型连锁超市家乐福(Carrefour)本周三股价重挫逾14%，因该公司下修获利展望并缩减投资，理由是社会动荡与能源成本上升正在打击消费者信心。执行长Alexandre Bompard表示，法国正面临「前所未有的局面」。\n\nING引述法国商会网路的预测指出，截至周二，已有超过2,000家企业直接受到影响。\n\nCarmignac投资委员会成员兼投资组合顾问Kevin Thozet表示，这波动荡的影响可能远超过直接暴露于抗议活动的企业。\n\nThozet说：「对股票市场而言，这对银行业并没有帮助，因为股权资金成本提高。不确定性若持续，也可能拖慢贷款成长并引发信用问题。」\n\n法国精品产业的销售额大多来自海外市场，例如LVMH的本土市场直接曝险相对有限，法国市场仅占其2025年营收的8%。不过Thozet指出，示威活动可能打击观光，进而影响免税购物，而免税购物约占LVMH在法国营收的20%。\n\n他补充：「政治真空若再持续六个月，对市场、经济与企业家而言，都是非常漫长的一段时间。」\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21694.html\" title=\"俄美乌11月阿布达比谈判！俄首艘柴油油轮赴美、乌克兰逾900处聚落停电\">俄美乌11月阿布达比谈判！俄首艘柴油油轮赴美、乌克兰逾900处聚落停电</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21724.html\" title=\"法国绷紧神经迎新一波示威 7万维安人力出动精品店封窗、罗浮宫闭馆\">法国绷紧神经迎新一波示威 7万维安人力出动精品店封窗、罗浮宫闭馆</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21714.html\" title=\"俄乌同意临时停火！奥列什基开放人道走道、11月将重启美方斡旋和平谈判\">俄乌同意临时停火！奥列什基开放人道走道、11月将重启美方斡旋和平谈判</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21678.html\" title=\"〈贵金属盘后〉金价掼破4000美元、本周重挫4% 油价涨势巩固Fed升息预期\">〈贵金属盘后〉金价掼破4000美元、本周重挫4% 油价涨势巩固Fed升息预期</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21723.html\" title=\"沙乌地拦截胡塞飞弹！川普威胁再次对伊朗发动军事行动、美伊冲突升温推高油价\">沙乌地拦截胡塞飞弹！川普威胁再次对伊朗发动军事行动、美伊冲突升温推高油价</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-21695.html\" title=\"辉达分析师示警：2027年规划中AI资料中心容量恐有45%无法建成\">辉达分析师示警：2027年规划中AI资料中心容量恐有45%无法建成</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6637115", "createdAt": "2026-10-24T10:30:09.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-24T11:23:20.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

法国政府能否通过预算案？

社会动荡将如何影响法国经济成长？

哪些法国产业最容易受到冲击？

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