天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI资本支出续航，震荡中布局台湾供应链龙头

加权股价指数近6个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至2026/10/28）

野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI资本支出续航，震荡中布局台湾供应链龙头

野村脚勤观点：

美国期中选举
从目前民调来看，共和党在期中选举失去众议院控制权的机率偏高，美国可能再度进入「分立政府」状态，然而并不必然代表川普将成为跛脚总统，一来是总统仍握有否决权，二来国会也须在达法定出席人数下，由两院各自取得投票议员三分之二支持才能推翻，门槛甚高，故川普仍保有政策主导空间，而就投资表现来说，历史统计标普500指数在期中选举后12个月通常表现较强，不论是分立政府还是完全执政政府都是如此，合理的解释是选举落幕后政策不确定性下降，市场得以重新聚焦企业获利、产业趋势与利率环境，故操作上仍应把握检视基本面能否支撑估值的原则，避免将选举结果直接等同股市方向。

经理人视角：

大盘利多因素：
（一）AI资本支出强劲：五大CSP 2027年资本支出上修至1.3兆美元，AI基础建设的投资循环尚未见顶
（二）Vera Rubin出货：预期Q4末~明年Q1初进入大量量产阶段，相关供应链可望看到月营收显著成长
（三）获利上修趋势不变：野村投信内部股票池估计2026年EPS YoY上修至80.3%，连续第10个月上修

大盘利空因素：
（一）评价面仍有压力：Fed进入升息循环、美债殖利率突破5%，短线或为评价面带来压力
（二）CSP自由现金流转负：短期对资本支出影响应属有限，但若加速恶化，或影响未来资本支出节奏

AI资本支出续航，震荡中布局台湾供应链龙头
回顾今年台股较大震荡，时间主要集中在4月、7月与10月，恰逢季报公布及美国大型CSP扩大资本支出的时点，也呼应近期市场对 AI融资成本上升与投资延续性的担忧，不过拉长时间观察，4月与7月的修正未扭转今年多头走势，加权指数仍由4月约35,000点上升至10月约48,000点附近，显示在短期筹码与情绪波动过后，企业基本面与AI成长趋势仍是行情的重要支撑。而观察美国Q3财报状况，率先揭露业绩的Meta再度大幅上修资本支出，进一步支撑2027年四大CSP资本支出扩张至1兆美元的乐观预期。故在此背景下，尽管偶有个别公司掉单或产品规格降级的消息影响盘面投资情绪，但如伺服器滑轨、ABF、散热等产业，台厂在供应链的主导地位依然稳固，因此操作上坚持持续追踪订单并利用震荡检视持股，从具竞争优势的次产业龙头中，挑选值得布局的优质公司。

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【野村投信赞助刊登】

本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表本基金之绩效，本基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。

警语

注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615台北市信义路五段7号30楼(台北101大楼)客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：www.nomurafunds.com.tw
上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书(或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用(境外基金含分销费用)已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书(或其中译本)或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站(https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw)中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书(投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】

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台股4月、7月、10月震荡后仍由约35,000点升至48,000点，供应链龙头可续布局。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640356/l/5d15b6dc89fd60c600c6999c1860dc5a.jpg", "content": "加权股价指数近6个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至2026/10/28）\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640356/l/5d15b6dc89fd60c600c6999c1860dc5a.jpg\" alt=\"野村投信最新台股看法--【台股操盘人笔记】AI资本支出续航，震荡中布局台湾供应链龙头\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"189\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4.021164021164021\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640356/m/43386d04f4d130ffe16c8911b8bf6cfc.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640356/l/43386d04f4d130ffe16c8911b8bf6cfc.jpg\"></figure>\n\n野村脚勤观点：\n\n美国期中选举 \n从目前民调来看，共和党在期中选举失去众议院控制权的机率偏高，美国可能再度进入「分立政府」状态，然而并不必然代表川普将成为跛脚总统，一来是总统仍握有否决权，二来国会也须在达法定出席人数下，由两院各自取得投票议员三分之二支持才能推翻，门槛甚高，故川普仍保有政策主导空间，而就投资表现来说，历史统计标普500指数在期中选举后12个月通常表现较强，不论是分立政府还是完全执政政府都是如此，合理的解释是选举落幕后政策不确定性下降，市场得以重新聚焦企业获利、产业趋势与利率环境，故操作上仍应把握检视基本面能否支撑估值的原则，避免将选举结果直接等同股市方向。\n\n经理人视角：\n\n大盘利多因素： \n（一）AI资本支出强劲：五大CSP 2027年资本支出上修至1.3兆美元，AI基础建设的投资循环尚未见顶 \n（二）Vera Rubin出货：预期Q4末~明年Q1初进入大量量产阶段，相关供应链可望看到月营收显著成长 \n（三）获利上修趋势不变：野村投信内部股票池估计2026年EPS YoY上修至80.3%，连续第10个月上修\n\n大盘利空因素： \n（一）评价面仍有压力：Fed进入升息循环、美债殖利率突破5%，短线或为评价面带来压力 \n（二）CSP自由现金流转负：短期对资本支出影响应属有限，但若加速恶化，或影响未来资本支出节奏\n\nAI资本支出续航，震荡中布局台湾供应链龙头 \n回顾今年台股较大震荡，时间主要集中在4月、7月与10月，恰逢季报公布及美国大型CSP扩大资本支出的时点，也呼应近期市场对 AI融资成本上升与投资延续性的担忧，不过拉长时间观察，4月与7月的修正未扭转今年多头走势，加权指数仍由4月约35,000点上升至10月约48,000点附近，显示在短期筹码与情绪波动过后，企业基本面与AI成长趋势仍是行情的重要支撑。而观察美国Q3财报状况，率先揭露业绩的Meta再度大幅上修资本支出，进一步支撑2027年四大CSP资本支出扩张至1兆美元的乐观预期。故在此背景下，尽管偶有个别公司掉单或产品规格降级的消息影响盘面投资情绪，但如伺服器滑轨、ABF、散热等产业，台厂在供应链的主导地位依然稳固，因此操作上坚持持续追踪订单并利用震荡检视持股，从具竞争优势的次产业龙头中，挑选值得布局的优质公司。\n\n<a href=\"https://money.nomurafunds.com.tw/articles.html?c=8&utm_source=cnYES&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=Campaignsite&utm_content=articles\">阅读更多精彩文章</a>\n\n【野村投信赞助刊登】\n\n本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表本基金之绩效，本基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。\n\n警语\n\n注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615台北市信义路五段7号30楼(台北101大楼)客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：<a href=\"http://www.nomurafunds.com.tw\">www.nomurafunds.com.tw</a> \n上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书(或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用(境外基金含分销费用)已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书(或其中译本)或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站(https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw)中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书(投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22847.html\" title=\"〈车市〉耐久财买气偏观望？10月新车挂牌数创10年来同期次低\">〈车市〉耐久财买气偏观望？10月新车挂牌数创10年来同期次低</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22851.html\" title=\"保健食品开发商腾势多元品牌策略挹注营运预计12月上旬IPO\">保健食品开发商腾势多元品牌策略挹注营运预计12月上旬IPO</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22845.html\" title=\"晶技Q3纯益季增27% 前三季赚逾半股本EPS5.04元\">晶技Q3纯益季增27% 前三季赚逾半股本EPS5.04元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22821.html\" title=\"北美切换冬令时间美股交易时段改为台北时间22:30开盘\">北美切换冬令时间美股交易时段改为台北时间22:30开盘</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22838.html\" title=\"〈陆股盘后〉两市维持高档震荡三大指数走高\">〈陆股盘后〉两市维持高档震荡三大指数走高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-22840.html\" title=\"台股失守45K免惊！摩根：本益比回落17.5倍掌握3大关键中长线看俏\">台股失守45K免惊！摩根：本益比回落17.5倍掌握3大关键中长线看俏</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6640356", "createdAt": "2026-11-02T09:11:03.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-11-02T09:12:26.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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