〈纽约汇市〉Fed升息后美元六连涨止步英镑在央行按兵不动后走弱

美元周四(17日)暂停连续六个交易日的涨势，此前一日美国联准会(Fed)如市场普遍预期升息。市场焦点转向英格兰银行(BoE)维持利率不变的决定，同时外汇交易员也为市场普遍预期的日本银行(BoJ)收紧货币政策做准备。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)徘徊在100.23，略低于平盘。

美元在过去六个交易日累计上涨近1.5%，市场对联准会升息的预期持续升温。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三符合市场预期，一致投票决定将联邦资金利率从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。

升息决定公布后，美元指数一度触及当日高点，因较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。

外汇市场参与者也消化了联准会最新公布的经济预测摘要以及联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)记者会所释放的鹰派讯号。最新点阵图显示，至少有12名FOMC成员预期今年还会再升息一次。

华许则强调，美国潜在通膨趋势并未出现有意义的改善，同时指出整体金融环境的限制程度仍不足，并再次强调联准会致力于实现物价稳定。

华许告诉记者，「事实很清楚，通膨太高了，而且已经持续太久。」

根据CME FedWatch工具，10月再升息25个基点目前仍难以预料，市场认为这项升息的机率为55%。

英镑在英国央行按兵不动后走弱欧元小幅上涨

英镑兑美元周四下跌0.2%，至1.3356美元。

稍早，英格兰银行货币政策委员会如市场预期，将基准利率维持在3.75%不变。不过，9名具投票权成员中有3人反对这项决定，主张升息25个基点。

委员会承认，中东冲突持续延长推升了英国通膨，但也表示，到目前为止，「几乎没有证据显示价格与薪资制定出现实质性的第二轮效应」。

虽然委员会没有直接提供未来可能升息的政策指引，但认为，相较于7月会议时，通膨前景面临的风险更加偏向上行。

AJ Bell个人理财主管Sarah Coles表示，「不要因此感到安心。英格兰银行已经连续第六次维持利率不变，但市场越来越确信，未来可能会有多次升息。委员会或许暂停了升息，但市场预期接下来将快速转向。」

同时，9月会议纪要显示，委员们认为，「金融环境以及因此影响家庭与企业的利率，自冲突开始以来已经收紧，而且自7月以来进一步收紧」。

根据MUFG，英镑下跌是因为部分交易员原本预期英格兰银行会释放更加强硬的讯号。

由Henry Cook领导的MUFG分析师表示，「英格兰银行的政策更新比部分投资人担心的更加温和，导致英镑与英国公债殖利率同步回落，因为委员会没有释放11月升息的讯号，并持续强调更加紧缩的金融环境已经有助于抑制通膨。」

日元走强市场准备迎接日银历史性升息

日元走强，美元兑日元汇率下跌0.2%，至155.98。这项走势发生在市场普遍预期日本银行即将升息25个基点之前。

若升息成真，日本借贷成本将升至31年来最高水准，也代表日本将大幅告别持续数十年的超宽松货币政策。

日本银行总裁植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)正面对持续性的成本推动型通膨，而目前原油价格每桶超过100美元，更进一步加剧了通膨压力。

LPL Financial首席经济学家Jeffrey Roach表示，「昨天联准会的决策，为即将召开的日本银行会议带来了一个非常有趣的政策动态。」

「这里的拉扯在于，鹰派联准会与正在收紧政策的日本银行，正让美元兑日元受到相反方向的力量拉扯：联准会持续升息会推动美元走强，但随着日本银行政策正常化，日元则应该升值。」

Roach补充，「在日本银行公布决策前，美元兑日元维持在155附近，接下来的净变动将取决于日本银行是否释放加快升息步调的讯号。」

「如果日本银行加快升息周期，可能推高全球公债殖利率，因为日本投资人会为了寻求更高的国内报酬率而将资金汇回日本。这种外溢效应可能进一步放大固定收益市场的压力。」

截至台湾时间周五 (18 日) 约 5:30 价格:

美元指数报 100.2211。-0.0093%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1476美元。+0.0087%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3351美元。-0.0599%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7110美元。+0.0141%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3992加币。+0.0143%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑155.9400日元。-0.0064%

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"美元周四(17日)暂停连续六个交易日的涨势，此前一日美国联准会(Fed)如市场普遍预期升息。市场焦点转向英格兰银行(BoE)维持利率不变的决定，同时外汇交易员也为市场普遍预期的日本银行(BoJ)收紧货币政策做准备。纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)徘徊在100.23，略低于平盘。美元在过去六个交易日累计上涨近1.5%，市场对联准会升息的预期持续升温。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三符合市场预期，一致投票决定将联邦资金利率从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609363/l/5bcc65ed90bf2efeb543c884681270d5.jpg", "content": "美元周四(17日)暂停连续六个交易日的涨势，此前一日美国联准会(Fed)如市场普遍预期升息。市场焦点转向英格兰银行(BoE)维持利率不变的决定，同时外汇交易员也为市场普遍预期的日本银行(BoJ)收紧货币政策做准备。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6609363/l/5bcc65ed90bf2efeb543c884681270d5.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉Fed升息后美元六连涨止步英镑在央行按兵不动后走弱\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)徘徊在100.23，略低于平盘。\n\n美元在过去六个交易日累计上涨近1.5%，市场对联准会升息的预期持续升温。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三符合市场预期，一致投票决定将联邦资金利率从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。\n\n升息决定公布后，美元指数一度触及当日高点，因较高的利率环境通常有利于美元走强。\n\n外汇市场参与者也消化了联准会最新公布的经济预测摘要以及联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)记者会所释放的鹰派讯号。最新点阵图显示，至少有12名FOMC成员预期今年还会再升息一次。\n\n华许则强调，美国潜在通膨趋势并未出现有意义的改善，同时指出整体金融环境的限制程度仍不足，并再次强调联准会致力于实现物价稳定。\n\n华许告诉记者，「事实很清楚，通膨太高了，而且已经持续太久。」\n\n根据CME FedWatch工具，10月再升息25个基点目前仍难以预料，市场认为这项升息的机率为55%。\n\n英镑在英国央行按兵不动后走弱欧元小幅上涨\n\n英镑兑美元周四下跌0.2%，至1.3356美元。\n\n稍早，英格兰银行货币政策委员会如市场预期，将基准利率维持在3.75%不变。不过，9名具投票权成员中有3人反对这项决定，主张升息25个基点。\n\n委员会承认，中东冲突持续延长推升了英国通膨，但也表示，到目前为止，「几乎没有证据显示价格与薪资制定出现实质性的第二轮效应」。\n\n虽然委员会没有直接提供未来可能升息的政策指引，但认为，相较于7月会议时，通膨前景面临的风险更加偏向上行。\n\nAJ Bell个人理财主管Sarah Coles表示，「不要因此感到安心。英格兰银行已经连续第六次维持利率不变，但市场越来越确信，未来可能会有多次升息。委员会或许暂停了升息，但市场预期接下来将快速转向。」\n\n同时，9月会议纪要显示，委员们认为，「金融环境以及因此影响家庭与企业的利率，自冲突开始以来已经收紧，而且自7月以来进一步收紧」。\n\n根据MUFG，英镑下跌是因为部分交易员原本预期英格兰银行会释放更加强硬的讯号。\n\n由Henry Cook领导的MUFG分析师表示，「英格兰银行的政策更新比部分投资人担心的更加温和，导致英镑与英国公债殖利率同步回落，因为委员会没有释放11月升息的讯号，并持续强调更加紧缩的金融环境已经有助于抑制通膨。」\n\n日元走强市场准备迎接日银历史性升息\n\n日元走强，美元兑日元汇率下跌0.2%，至155.98。这项走势发生在市场普遍预期日本银行即将升息25个基点之前。\n\n若升息成真，日本借贷成本将升至31年来最高水准，也代表日本将大幅告别持续数十年的超宽松货币政策。\n\n日本银行总裁植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)正面对持续性的成本推动型通膨，而目前原油价格每桶超过100美元，更进一步加剧了通膨压力。\n\nLPL Financial首席经济学家Jeffrey Roach表示，「昨天联准会的决策，为即将召开的日本银行会议带来了一个非常有趣的政策动态。」\n\n「这里的拉扯在于，鹰派联准会与正在收紧政策的日本银行，正让美元兑日元受到相反方向的力量拉扯：联准会持续升息会推动美元走强，但随着日本银行政策正常化，日元则应该升值。」\n\nRoach补充，「在日本银行公布决策前，美元兑日元维持在155附近，接下来的净变动将取决于日本银行是否释放加快升息步调的讯号。」\n\n「如果日本银行加快升息周期，可能推高全球公债殖利率，因为日本投资人会为了寻求更高的国内报酬率而将资金汇回日本。这种外溢效应可能进一步放大固定收益市场的压力。」\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (18 日) 约 5:30 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 100.2211。-0.0093%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1476美元。+0.0087%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3351美元。-0.0599%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7110美元。+0.0141%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3992<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0143%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑155.9400<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0064%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18029.html\" title=\"只花22天！Muse在美超越ChatGPT成最快达成500万次下载量AI应用程式\">只花22天！Muse在美超越ChatGPT成最快达成500万次下载量AI应用程式</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20811.html\" title=\"AI交易平仓潮重创全球避险基金亚洲基金首当其冲\">AI交易平仓潮重创全球避险基金亚洲基金首当其冲</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2728.html\" title=\"微软AI资料中心找上雪佛龙签20年供气协议\">微软AI资料中心找上雪佛龙签20年供气协议</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1605.html\" title=\"晶片荒恶化！全球手机出货恐创史上最惨非苹阵营迎「末日洗牌」\">晶片荒恶化！全球手机出货恐创史上最惨非苹阵营迎「末日洗牌」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20084.html\" 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