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美光AI需求爆发 Q1财测大幅超预期股价盘后走高

2026-10-01 08:33:00 网络 阅读(1)

美光科技(MU-US)周三(30日)公布2026会计年度第四季财报及2027会计年度第一季财测,受人工智慧(AI)资料中心持续拉动高频宽记忆体(HBM)及其他记忆体产品需求,公司营收与获利均优于华尔街预期,并预期下一季业绩进一步攀升,带动股价盘后上涨逾1%。

美光AI需求爆发 Q1财测大幅超预期股价盘后走高

美光预估2027会计年度第一季营收将达615亿美元,上下浮动15亿美元,明显高于分析师平均预估的567.7亿美元;调整后每股盈余(EPS)预估为38.15美元,上下浮动1美元,也高于市场预期的36.02美元。公司预估第一季调整后毛利率约86.25%,调整后营业费用约20.6亿美元。

强劲财测反映AI基础建设需求仍在快速成长。美光表示,伺服器用LPDDR SOCAMM产品第四季营收较前一季增加逾1倍,PCIe Gen 5及Gen 6固态硬碟(SSD)产品也已出货给客户,用于AI相关快取应用。公司执行长梅罗特拉(Sanjay Mehrotra)表示,美光2026会计年度创下创纪录表现,预期2027会计年度将更加强劲,主要受到AI需求及策略性客户协议支持。

美光第四季营收达542.3亿美元,较去年同期大增379%,高于市场预估的504.5亿至510.7亿美元;调整后每股盈余为33.42美元,高于分析师预估的31.16至31.72美元。调整后毛利率由第三季的84.9%升至87.0%,调整后营业利益由前一季的336.8亿美元增加至446.4亿美元,调整后净利则由288.6亿美元升至384.0亿美元。

以GAAP口径计算,美光第四季营收为542.29亿美元,净利为377.01亿美元;营运现金流达439.73亿美元。如此大幅成长,使公司2026会计年度全年营运表现达到新高,也显示AI资料中心对记忆体及储存产品的需求已经成为推动美光业绩的重要力量。

AI伺服器需要大量HBM及高速记忆体,以配合AI加速器处理庞大的资料传输需求。美光目前是美国主要的HBM制造商,也是辉达(NVDA-US)的重要供应商之一。随着生成式AI及AI代理等应用持续扩大,云端服务商及大型科技企业持续提高资料中心投资,进一步推升HBM及伺服器记忆体需求。

美光表示,目前HBM订单需求已大幅超过公司现有产能,AI记忆体需求强劲也使传统记忆体供应趋紧,推升整体半导体市场的价格。公司因此持续扩大产能及技术投资,已将截至2035年的美国投资计划提高至超过2500亿美元。

AI基础建设支出规模也持续扩大。Reuters指出,Amazon(AMZN-US)、Alphabet(GOOGL-US)及其他大型科技企业今年在AI基础建设上的支出预计超过7300亿美元,记忆体供应商因此受惠于资料中心扩建所带动的需求成长。

美光也正透过多年期策略性客户协议,提高未来营收的可预测性。截至最新财报,公司已签署36份多年期供应协议,高于上一季的16份,这些协议涵盖约三分之一的营收,并延伸至2030年。部分合约采取长达5年的供应安排,包含价格下限、较高价格上限、具约束力的采购承诺及客户预付款等条款。

这类协议是美光降低记忆体产业周期性波动的重要措施。记忆体市场过去经常受到供需变化影响,价格及获利容易大幅波动;美光透过较长期的供应合约锁定部分需求,希望让AI时代的高需求能转化为更稳定的长期营收及现金流。

强劲的业绩也大幅改善美光的现金流状况。公司2026会计年度自由现金流达590亿美元,期间偿还约100亿美元债务,剩余债务降至约50亿美元,同时已启动股票回购计划。市场预期公司2027会计年度自由现金流可能进一步达到约1290亿美元。

产品方面,美光此前已开始量产出货采用1-beta DRAM技术的HBM4,并向多家终端客户提供产品认证样品;下一代采用1-gamma DRAM技术的HBM4E正在开发,预计2027年进入量产。公司也已向伺服器生态系统主要客户提供256GB DDR5 RDIMM认证样品,显示AI伺服器及高阶资料中心记忆体产品布局持续扩大。

美光股价今年以来已大幅上涨,Reuters指出,截至周三盘后公布财报前,公司股价今年累计涨幅已超过3倍;财报及财测公布后,盘后交易一度上涨逾1%。

市场目前关注的焦点已从AI需求能否延续,转向美光能否透过扩产、HBM升级及多年期客户合约满足快速增加的订单。公司管理层表示,记忆体及储存市场的供需状况预计在2027及2028会计年度将比2026会计年度更加紧俏,意味着AI资料中心扩张仍可能为记忆体产业带来持续需求。

整体而言,美光最新财报显示AI需求正同时推动HBM、伺服器DRAM及AI储存产品成长,而第一季财测大幅高于市场预期,进一步反映公司对AI记忆体景气延续的信心。不过,随着公司积极扩大美国及全球产能,后续供应增加速度、资本支出规模及AI资料中心需求是否能维持目前成长速度,仍将是市场评估美光后续业绩的重要因素。

项目 2026会计年度Q4实际 市场预期 2027会计年度Q1财测
营收 542.3亿美元 约504.5-510.7亿美元 615亿美元 ±15亿美元
调整后EPS 33.42美元 约31.16-31.72美元 38.15美元 ±1美元
调整后毛利率 87.0% - 约86.25%
调整后营业利益 446.4亿美元 - -
调整后净利 384.0亿美元 - -
营运现金流 439.73亿美元 - -
AI需求 强劲 - 预期持续成长
HBM需求 产能供不应求 - 持续扩产
多年期供应协议 36份 - 延伸至2030年
多年期协议涵盖营收 约1/3 - -
美国投资计划 - - 2035年前超过2500亿美元
2026财年自由现金流 590亿美元 - -
2026财年偿还债务 约100亿美元 - -
剩余债务 约50亿美元 - -

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美光称HBM订单已超产能,签36份多年期供应协议,涵盖约1/3营收至2030年",
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    "content": "<p>美光科技(MU-US)周三(30日)公布2026会计年度第四季财报及2027会计年度第一季财测,受人工智慧(AI)资料中心持续拉动高频宽记忆体(HBM)及其他记忆体产品需求,公司营收与获利均优于华尔街预期,并预期下一季业绩进一步攀升,带动股价盘后上涨逾1%。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6619198/l/19634eee036cbfe7b1c5b13392305c9e.jpg\" alt=\"美光AI需求爆发 Q1财测大幅超预期股价盘后走高\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>美光预估2027会计年度第一季营收将达615亿美元,上下浮动15亿美元,明显高于分析师平均预估的567.7亿美元;调整后每股盈余(EPS)预估为38.15美元,上下浮动1美元,也高于市场预期的36.02美元。公司预估第一季调整后毛利率约86.25%,调整后营业费用约20.6亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>强劲财测反映AI基础建设需求仍在快速成长。美光表示,伺服器用LPDDR SOCAMM产品第四季营收较前一季增加逾1倍,PCIe Gen 5及Gen 6固态硬碟(SSD)产品也已出货给客户,用于AI相关快取应用。公司执行长梅罗特拉(Sanjay Mehrotra)表示,美光2026会计年度创下创纪录表现,预期2027会计年度将更加强劲,主要受到AI需求及策略性客户协议支持。</p>\n\n<p>美光第四季营收达542.3亿美元,较去年同期大增379%,高于市场预估的504.5亿至510.7亿美元;调整后每股盈余为33.42美元,高于分析师预估的31.16至31.72美元。调整后毛利率由第三季的84.9%升至87.0%,调整后营业利益由前一季的336.8亿美元增加至446.4亿美元,调整后净利则由288.6亿美元升至384.0亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>以GAAP口径计算,美光第四季营收为542.29亿美元,净利为377.01亿美元;营运现金流达439.73亿美元。如此大幅成长,使公司2026会计年度全年营运表现达到新高,也显示AI资料中心对记忆体及储存产品的需求已经成为推动美光业绩的重要力量。</p>\n\n<p>AI伺服器需要大量HBM及高速记忆体,以配合AI加速器处理庞大的资料传输需求。美光目前是美国主要的HBM制造商,也是辉达(NVDA-US)的重要供应商之一。随着生成式AI及AI代理等应用持续扩大,云端服务商及大型科技企业持续提高资料中心投资,进一步推升HBM及伺服器记忆体需求。</p>\n\n<p>美光表示,目前HBM订单需求已大幅超过公司现有产能,AI记忆体需求强劲也使传统记忆体供应趋紧,推升整体半导体市场的价格。公司因此持续扩大产能及技术投资,已将截至2035年的美国投资计划提高至超过2500亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>AI基础建设支出规模也持续扩大。Reuters指出,Amazon(AMZN-US)、Alphabet(GOOGL-US)及其他大型科技企业今年在AI基础建设上的支出预计超过7300亿美元,记忆体供应商因此受惠于资料中心扩建所带动的需求成长。</p>\n\n<p>美光也正透过多年期策略性客户协议,提高未来营收的可预测性。截至最新财报,公司已签署36份多年期供应协议,高于上一季的16份,这些协议涵盖约三分之一的营收,并延伸至2030年。部分合约采取长达5年的供应安排,包含价格下限、较高价格上限、具约束力的采购承诺及客户预付款等条款。</p>\n\n<p>这类协议是美光降低记忆体产业周期性波动的重要措施。记忆体市场过去经常受到供需变化影响,价格及获利容易大幅波动;美光透过较长期的供应合约锁定部分需求,希望让AI时代的高需求能转化为更稳定的长期营收及现金流。</p>\n\n<p>强劲的业绩也大幅改善美光的现金流状况。公司2026会计年度自由现金流达590亿美元,期间偿还约100亿美元债务,剩余债务降至约50亿美元,同时已启动股票回购计划。市场预期公司2027会计年度自由现金流可能进一步达到约1290亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>产品方面,美光此前已开始量产出货采用1-beta DRAM技术的HBM4,并向多家终端客户提供产品认证样品;下一代采用1-gamma DRAM技术的HBM4E正在开发,预计2027年进入量产。公司也已向伺服器生态系统主要客户提供256GB DDR5 RDIMM认证样品,显示AI伺服器及高阶资料中心记忆体产品布局持续扩大。</p>\n\n<p>美光股价今年以来已大幅上涨,Reuters指出,截至周三盘后公布财报前,公司股价今年累计涨幅已超过3倍;财报及财测公布后,盘后交易一度上涨逾1%。</p>\n\n<p>市场目前关注的焦点已从AI需求能否延续,转向美光能否透过扩产、HBM升级及多年期客户合约满足快速增加的订单。公司管理层表示,记忆体及储存市场的供需状况预计在2027及2028会计年度将比2026会计年度更加紧俏,意味着AI资料中心扩张仍可能为记忆体产业带来持续需求。</p>\n\n<p>整体而言,美光最新财报显示AI需求正同时推动HBM、伺服器DRAM及AI储存产品成长,而第一季财测大幅高于市场预期,进一步反映公司对AI记忆体景气延续的信心。不过,随着公司积极扩大美国及全球产能,后续供应增加速度、资本支出规模及AI资料中心需求是否能维持目前成长速度,仍将是市场评估美光后续业绩的重要因素。</p>\n\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>项目</th>\n<th>2026会计年度Q4实际</th>\n<th>市场预期</th>\n<th>2027会计年度Q1财测</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>营收</td>\n<td>542.3亿美元</td>\n<td>约504.5-510.7亿美元</td>\n<td>615亿美元 &plusmn;15亿美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>调整后EPS</td>\n<td>33.42美元</td>\n<td>约31.16-31.72美元</td>\n<td>38.15美元 &plusmn;1美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>调整后毛利率</td>\n<td>87.0%</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>约86.25%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>调整后营业利益</td>\n<td>446.4亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>调整后净利</td>\n<td>384.0亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>营运现金流</td>\n<td>439.73亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>AI需求</td>\n<td>强劲</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>预期持续成长</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>HBM需求</td>\n<td>产能供不应求</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>持续扩产</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>多年期供应协议</td>\n<td>36份</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>延伸至2030年</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>多年期协议涵盖营收</td>\n<td>约1/3</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>美国投资计划</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>2035年前超过2500亿美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2026财年自由现金流</td>\n<td>590亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2026财年偿还债务</td>\n<td>约100亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>剩余债务</td>\n<td>约50亿美元</td>\n<td>-</td>\n<td>-</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9841.html\" title=\"美股重点新闻摘要2026年8月6日\">美股重点新闻摘要2026年8月6日</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-330.html\" title=\"高盛示警市场进入罕见「双高」 风险偏好指标创近五年新高\">高盛示警市场进入罕见「双高」 风险偏好指标创近五年新高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6180.html\" title=\"SK海力士美股挂牌首日飙涨13% 崔泰源:AI记忆体需求非常庞大\">SK海力士美股挂牌首日飙涨13% 崔泰源:AI记忆体需求非常庞大</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-17535.html\" title=\"海外资金疯抢美股!12个月净买进9420亿美元创40年新高、美债需求却降温\">海外资金疯抢美股!12个月净买进9420亿美元创40年新高、美债需求却降温</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4825.html\" title=\"美6月非农就业数据今晚登场!强过预期料将推高Fed升息预期、美元指数挑战102关卡\">美6月非农就业数据今晚登场!强过预期料将推高Fed升息预期、美元指数挑战102关卡</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12708.html\" title=\"比特币强势反弹 知名投资者:反映资金从过热的AI撤出\">比特币强势反弹 知名投资者:反映资金从过热的AI撤出</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-10-01T00:20:02.000Z",
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