〈纽约汇市〉美元自18个月高点回落油价下跌、通膨数据受瞩

美元周二(13日)自18个月高点滑落，随着油价下跌，加上市场重新评估今年支撑美国资产需求、由人工智慧(AI)题材带动的涨势。投资人同时等待更多有关联准会(Fed)利率政策走向的线索。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.37%，报102.18。该指数周一曾升至102.61，创2025年4月以来最高。

Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示，「随着市场对AI相关股票估值的合理性及涨势能否持续产生更多疑虑，美元正走弱。这可能抑制流入美国金融市场的资金。」

纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)表示，他仍预期今年会再升息一次，但认为2027年没有必要进一步升息。此番言论公布后，美元跌幅进一步扩大。

市场预期，美国总统川普将避免中东局势进一步升级，因为更大规模的冲突可能损害他在下个月期中选举前的政治支持度。

川普上周表示，美国不会在选举前攻击伊朗，他也在周日提及俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的能源停火安排。

周二油价下跌0.75%，至每桶105.87 美元，交易人士正评估俄罗斯是否可能额外增加柴油供应。俄罗斯表示，其柴油出口量可恢复至高于川普在与莫斯科达成的协议中所提及水准。

分析师指出，除了能源因素之外，市场对AI带动投资的前景日益存疑，也正在挑战近期美元涨势。

投资人正等待周三公布的美国9月消费者物价指数(CPI)，这项数据将进一步提供联准会未来是否收紧货币政策的线索。

在两名联准会官员主张应搜集更多证据，再决定是否有必要进一步紧缩政策后，投资人已放弃对本月稍晚升息的押注。

芝商所(CME Group)FedWatch工具显示，交易员预期联准会在10月27至28日会议上维持利率不变的机率约为80%，高于一个月前的51%。另一方面，市场目前预期截至2027年底，联准会累计紧缩幅度约为75个基点。

渣打银行全球G10外汇研究主管暨北美宏观策略主管Steven Englander表示，「我们认为通膨数据可能会略低于预期。油价仍带来一些数据公布前的风险，但推升核心通膨的部分因素正在消退。关税已经是去年的话题了。」

近期油价上涨曾支撑美元，并使欧元、日元等货币承压，因欧元区与日本的经济对进口石油的依赖程度远高于美国。

欧元反弹尽管天然气价格升高

尽管天然气价格再度大涨，而天然气是推升欧元区通膨的重要因素之一，加上法国财政前景仍令人担忧，欧元仍从约17个月低点反弹。

欧元兑美元上涨0.40%，至1欧元兑1.1198 美元。周一欧元曾跌至1.11525美元，为2025年5月以来最低。

Englander表示，「欧洲各国公债殖利率利差略有收敛。就市场对法国财政脆弱性的看法而言，我们还没有到达最高警戒状态，相关担忧已经有所缓和。」

欧洲天然气价格升至2022年12月以来最高水准，最新报价为每百万瓦时86.74欧元。

日本银行(BoJ)公布数据显示，日本9月批发物价年增率为6.8%，低于市场预估中位数的7.6%。尽管如此，数据仍足以支撑市场对日本利率可能进一步上升的担忧。日元兑美元升值0.18%，至158.33日元兑1美元。

投资人仍认为，日银进一步收紧货币政策的可能性，以及官方可能出手干预过度的汇率波动，将为日元提供支撑。

澳币兑美元报0.69830美元。此前，澳洲央行(RBA)公布9月会议纪录，显示委员会一致同意今年第四度升息。

截至台湾时间周三 (14 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 102.2109。+0.0145%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1196美元。-0.0179%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3247美元。-0.0604%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.6979美元。-0.0573%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4213加币。-0.0141%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.3000日元。0.0000%

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威廉斯称今年仍可能再升息一次，10月会议按兵不动机率升至80%。
油价跌0.75%至105.87美元，欧元、日元反弹，投资人聚焦周三美国CPI。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629508/l/3109e5dbeb9675784f3656da48664a4c.jpg", "content": "美元周二(13日)自18个月高点滑落，随着油价下跌，加上市场重新评估今年支撑美国资产需求、由人工智慧(AI)题材带动的涨势。投资人同时等待更多有关联准会(Fed)利率政策走向的线索。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6629508/l/3109e5dbeb9675784f3656da48664a4c.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元自18个月高点回落油价下跌、通膨数据受瞩\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.37%，报102.18。该指数周一曾升至102.61，创2025年4月以来最高。\n\nCorpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示，「随着市场对AI相关股票估值的合理性及涨势能否持续产生更多疑虑，美元正走弱。这可能抑制流入美国金融市场的资金。」\n\n纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)表示，他仍预期今年会再升息一次，但认为2027年没有必要进一步升息。此番言论公布后，美元跌幅进一步扩大。\n\n市场预期，美国总统川普将避免中东局势进一步升级，因为更大规模的冲突可能损害他在下个月期中选举前的政治支持度。\n\n川普上周表示，美国不会在选举前攻击伊朗，他也在周日提及俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的能源停火安排。\n\n周二油价下跌0.75%，至每桶105.87 美元，交易人士正评估俄罗斯是否可能额外增加柴油供应。俄罗斯表示，其柴油出口量可恢复至高于川普在与莫斯科达成的协议中所提及水准。\n\n分析师指出，除了能源因素之外，市场对AI带动投资的前景日益存疑，也正在挑战近期美元涨势。\n\n投资人正等待周三公布的美国9月消费者物价指数(CPI)，这项数据将进一步提供联准会未来是否收紧货币政策的线索。\n\n在两名联准会官员主张应搜集更多证据，再决定是否有必要进一步紧缩政策后，投资人已放弃对本月稍晚升息的押注。\n\n芝商所(CME Group)FedWatch工具显示，交易员预期联准会在10月27至28日会议上维持利率不变的机率约为80%，高于一个月前的51%。另一方面，市场目前预期截至2027年底，联准会累计紧缩幅度约为75个基点。\n\n渣打银行全球G10外汇研究主管暨北美宏观策略主管Steven Englander表示，「我们认为通膨数据可能会略低于预期。油价仍带来一些数据公布前的风险，但推升核心通膨的部分因素正在消退。关税已经是去年的话题了。」\n\n近期油价上涨曾支撑美元，并使欧元、日元等货币承压，因欧元区与日本的经济对进口石油的依赖程度远高于美国。\n\n欧元反弹尽管天然气价格升高\n\n尽管天然气价格再度大涨，而天然气是推升欧元区通膨的重要因素之一，加上法国财政前景仍令人担忧，欧元仍从约17个月低点反弹。\n\n欧元兑美元上涨0.40%，至1欧元兑1.1198 美元。周一欧元曾跌至1.11525美元，为2025年5月以来最低。\n\nEnglander表示，「欧洲各国公债殖利率利差略有收敛。就市场对法国财政脆弱性的看法而言，我们还没有到达最高警戒状态，相关担忧已经有所缓和。」\n\n欧洲天然气价格升至2022年12月以来最高水准，最新报价为每百万瓦时86.74欧元。\n\n日本银行(BoJ)公布数据显示，日本9月批发物价年增率为6.8%，低于市场预估中位数的7.6%。尽管如此，数据仍足以支撑市场对日本利率可能进一步上升的担忧。日元兑美元升值0.18%，至158.33日元兑1美元。\n\n投资人仍认为，日银进一步收紧货币政策的可能性，以及官方可能出手干预过度的汇率波动，将为日元提供支撑。\n\n澳币兑美元报0.69830美元。此前，澳洲央行(RBA)公布9月会议纪录，显示委员会一致同意今年第四度升息。\n\n截至台湾时间周三 (14 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 102.2109。+0.0145%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1196美元。-0.0179%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3247美元。-0.0604%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.6979美元。-0.0573%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4213<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0141%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.3000<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。0.0000%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12377.html\" title=\"衰退担忧降温！美国8月商业活动创逾四年最快 Q3经济成长率上看3%\">衰退担忧降温！美国8月商业活动创逾四年最快 Q3经济成长率上看3%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4485.html\" title=\"标普500今夏恐迎「三波修正」！美银：7月起宜采防御策略\">标普500今夏恐迎「三波修正」！美银：7月起宜采防御策略</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5305.html\" title=\"辉达否认下一代AI伺服器延期传闻强调产品蓝图未受影响\">辉达否认下一代AI伺服器延期传闻强调产品蓝图未受影响</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1850.html\" title=\"卖飞了！Arm高层集体套现2560万美元傻眼看股价喷新高\">卖飞了！Arm高层集体套现2560万美元傻眼看股价喷新高</a></li>\n <li><a 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