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"title": "苹果躲过AI卖压却迎换机考验！KeyBanc示警股价有27%下行空间",
"shortTitle": "苹果躲过AI卖压却迎换机考验！KeyBanc示警股价有27%",
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"description": "KeyBanc示警iPhone涨价、电信促销缩减恐压抑换机需求，给苹果250美元目标价、评等减码。 分析师称iPhone 18销售或不如预期，因现有手机仍堪用；苹果今年涨26%，2027年预估本益比约36倍。 苹果将于10月28日发表首款触控萤幕MacBook；股价市值仍约5兆美元。",
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"content": "<p>《巴隆周刊》周一 (19 日) 报导，苹果 (AAPL-US) 虽躲过上周人工智慧 (AI) 类股抛售潮，市值首度突破 5 兆美元，但 KeyBanc 分析师警告，iPhone 涨价、电信业者限缩促销，加上消费者现有手机仍堪用，可能压抑换机需求，并给予苹果 250 美元目标价，较上周五收盘价低约 27%。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6633802/l/32f21fae310a628c1e072f7dfe3621cf.jpg\" alt=\"苹果躲过AI卖压却迎换机考验！KeyBanc示警股价有27%下行空间\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>KeyBanc 分析师 Brandon Nispel 在汇整 iPhone 用户调查的报告中指出，iPhone 18 上市后的销售表现，可能不如苹果预期。当现有装置已足以满足日常需求，消费者更难接受新机价格上涨。</p>\n\n<p>他表示，从更广泛的消费族群来看，价格走高、电信业者缩减促销，以及现有硬体仍够用，都会降低换机意愿，最终使销量降温。</p>\n\n<p>Nispel 目前给予苹果「减码」评等。</p>\n\n<p>除了换机需求，苹果的估值也面临检验。该股今年以来已上涨约 26%，以 2027 会计年度预估获利计算，本益比约 36 倍，明显高于历史平均水准。投资人关注的是，未来获利成长能否支撑目前的高估值。</p>\n\n<p>不过，苹果仍持续推出新品，为成长增添动能。</p>\n\n<p>《彭博》周一报导，苹果将于 10 月 28 日在洛杉矶举行的「Pro and tell」活动中，发表首款触控萤幕 MacBook。此前，苹果已于上月推出 Duo 折叠手机，并在本月稍早发表 HomeView 智慧家庭中枢。苹果未立即回应《巴隆周刊》对即将公布新品的置评请求。</p>\n\n<p>另一方面，苹果相对节制的 AI 投资，也成为支撑股价的因素。相较于 Alphabet (GOOGL-US)、微软 (MSFT-US) 与亚马逊 (AMZN-US) 计划投入数千亿美元发展 AI，苹果尚未大举投入同等规模的资金。</p>\n\n<p>Melius 分析师 Ben Reitzes 认为，苹果正是市场奖励低资本支出、且不绑定特定 AI 模型策略的代表。他维持苹果「买进」评等，目标价为 370 美元。</p>\n\n<p>截至周一，苹果股价大致持平，收跌0.15% 至每股 342.94 美元，市值仍维持在 5 兆美元之上。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5275.html\" title=\"微软大动刀！Xbox裁两成人力 五大工作室全面重组\">微软大动刀！Xbox裁两成人力 五大工作室全面重组</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6440.html\" title=\"SK海力士自历史高位已修正近40% 虽财报亮眼 市场两极化看待后市前景\">SK海力士自历史高位已修正近40% 虽财报亮眼 市场两极化看待后市前景</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9813.html\" title=\"AMD对AI自信十足 市场却关注供给能否跟上\">AMD对AI自信十足 市场却关注供给能否跟上</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8248.html\" title=\"关键一飞！星舰完成SpaceX上市后首飞 成功部署V3星链 低轨卫星概念股行情将重燃？\">关键一飞！星舰完成SpaceX上市后首飞 成功部署V3星链 低轨卫星概念股行情将重燃？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12791.html\" title=\"美债抛售潮将落幕？选择权市场大举押注长债反弹\">美债抛售潮将落幕？选择权市场大举押注长债反弹</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3505.html\" title=\"最快下月赴美IPO！韩媒：SK海力士将向韩监管机关提交美股ADR上市文件\">最快下月赴美IPO！韩媒：SK海力士将向韩监管机关提交美股ADR上市文件</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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