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"title": "晶片股血洗!那指蒸发1兆美元 专家激辩:AI泡沫将破裂还是「最佳买点」?",
"shortTitle": "晶片股血洗!那指蒸发1兆美元 专家激辩:AI泡沫将破裂还是「",
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"description": "全球晶片股遭遇获利了结卖压,SK 海力士、三星电子、美光、AMD 与英特尔股价重挫,那斯达克 100 市值一度蒸发逾 1 兆美元。面对 AI 概念股大跌,华尔街包括 Jim Paulsen、Andrew Slimmon、Dan Ives 与",
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"content": "<p>周二(23 日)全球股市出现剧烈震荡,以美国与亚洲科技股为首的晶片相关个股遭到大举抛售,投资人在半导体类股近一个月狂飙之后纷纷获利了结,引发市场一片献血。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6509569/l/32ab806977f3a5f4e4f8a1e44ab2c896.jpg\" alt=\"晶片股血洗!那指蒸发1兆美元 专家激辩:AI泡沫将破裂还是「最佳买点」?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>根据《Business Insider》报导,晶片重镇南韩股市暴跌 10%,SK 海力士与三星电子领跌;美股方面,美光科技 (<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:MU:STOCK:COMMON\" href=\"#\">MU-US</a>) 、超微半导体 (<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:AMD:STOCK:COMMON\" href=\"#\">AMD-US</a>) 与英特尔 (<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:INTC:STOCK:COMMON\" href=\"#\">INTC-US</a>) 股价开盘后一度暴跌 6%,那斯达克 100 指数市值一度蒸发逾 1 兆美元。</p>\n\n<p>此次卖压与晶片股近数月来的疯狂涨势形成强烈对比。尽管周二重挫,安硕半导体 ETF(<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:SOXX:STOCK:ETF\" href=\"#\">SOXX-US</a>) 今年以来涨幅仍高达 95%,显示这波修正仍是建立在惊人涨势之上的回吐。</p>\n\n<p>以下是一些市场顶级评论员对此抛售潮的看法:</p>\n\n<p><em>华尔街资深策略师 Jim Paulsen:若跌破前低 恐有更大跌势</em></p>\n\n<p>华尔街资深策略师、Leuthold 集团前首席策略师 Jim Paulsen 警告,若标普 500 科技类股跌破前波低点,科技板块将遭受更大打击,意味还有约 3% 的下跌空间,可能回测 6 月初低点。</p>\n\n<p>他指出,近期 AI 概念股的卖压从历史角度来看相当罕见,相较于网路泡沫时期仅出现一轮大规模卖压后整个交易就崩盘,这次情况更值得留意。</p>\n\n<p>Paulsen 近月来多次提出警讯,包括科技与成长股与大盘其他类股之间的分歧持续扩大。他形容,眼看着一度炙手可热的当红股票如今变得无人问津,景象相当令人震撼。</p>\n\n<p><em>Piper Sandler 首席市场技术分析师 Craig Johnson:大盘须创新高才能延续动能</em></p>\n\n<p>Piper Sandler 首席市场技术分析师 Craig Johnson 表示,晶片股先前涨势呈现「抛物线式」上涨格局,回调在所难免。</p>\n\n<p>他认为这波卖压属于市场领涨股轮动扩散的一环,但如果市场无法尽快创下新高,晶片股的反弹可能有限。</p>\n\n<p>Johnson 表示,如果接下来几周大盘未能突破新高,逢低承接的买盘就会迅速退场,因此市场需要确认能再创新高。</p>\n\n<p>他也提醒,投资人不该忘记半导体股本质上仍是循环性产业,而非永续成长产业,但目前市场却把它当成永续成长股在炒作。</p>\n\n<p><em>摩根士丹利 Andrew Slimmon:这次回档「健康」</em></p>\n\n<p>摩根士丹利投资管理资深投资组合经理人 Andrew Slimmon 则持较正面看法,认为鉴于 AI 交易已过度拥挤,这波修正其实对市场有益。</p>\n\n<p>他在周二(23 日)指出,这次受伤最重的正是 AI 概念受益最大的个股,反映出市场动能交易者的情绪氛围。</p>\n\n<p>Slimmon 表示,这对市场是好事,因为大家最不希望看到的就是过度亢奋最终以崩盘收场。</p>\n\n<p>他补充说,这波回档也为想增加科技股与晶片股部位的投资人提供了进场机会,因为该产业的获利表现依然相当强劲。</p>\n\n<p><em>eToro 美国投资与选择权分析师 Bret Kenwell:「完美风暴」式卖压 弱势恐延续数周</em></p>\n\n<p>Kenwell 表示,鉴于晶片股近期涨势过于猛烈,整个族群已经进入适合出现回档的「完美风暴」阶段。</p>\n\n<p>他指出,随着市场资金持续在不同族群间轮动,科技股的疲弱走势可能还会持续数周。</p>\n\n<p>Kenwell 表示:「联准会(Fed)释出的讯息比市场预期更偏向鹰派,但这一点目前似乎被市场忽略了。因此,我认为接下来几周市场可能会稍微喘口气、暂时休息一下。」</p>\n\n<p>他认为,在资金轮动及货币政策不确定性的影响下,市场短期内可能进入整理阶段,而非持续单边上涨。</p>\n\n<p><em>嘉信理财 Joe Mazzola:晶片股正接受「压力测试」</em></p>\n\n<p>嘉信理财交易与衍生性商品策略主管 Joe Mazzola 在报告中指出,投资人需观察这波涨势能否扩散至晶片股以外的个股,才能判断这只是正常回档,还是更严重的趋势反转。</p>\n\n<p>他写道,从目前情况看来,这较不像是全面性的宏观恐慌,更像是一个过度拥挤的领涨族群在经历一段强势上涨后接受压力测试,也可能代表 AI 与记忆体驱动的这波强势行情正在进行重置。除非卖压进一步扩散,否则目前还不能说是全面性的市场崩跌。</p>\n\n<p><em>Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives:卖压正是进场时机</em></p>\n\n<p>Dan Ives 是市场上最看好科技股的分析师之一。他表示,周二市场出现的大幅下跌,反而为投资人提供了布局科技股的绝佳机会。</p>\n\n<p>Ives 指出,根据该公司近期对亚洲晶片产业以及整体 AI 需求的调查,过去几个月来并未看到任何「防线出现裂痕」的迹象。他并强调,Wedbush 对于市场上的「AI 赢家股」仍维持高度看多的立场。</p>\n\n<p>Ives 在周二发布给客户的报告中写道:「我们认为,韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)的下跌,只是在今年已大涨近 100% 之后的一次正常回档与喘息。」</p>\n\n<p>他进一步表示,SK Hynix 市值超越 Samsung Electronics,具有相当大的象征意义,也让部分投资人开始担心记忆体晶片产业已经过热。不过,Wedbush 对此并不认同。</p>\n\n<p><em>Rosenberg 研究公司创办人 David Rosenberg:散户是否愿意逢低买进仍是未知数</em></p>\n\n<p>知名经济学家、Rosenberg 研究公司创办人 David Rosenberg 在周二的客户报告中形容,晶片股正经历一轮「剧烈」的了结卖压。</p>\n\n<p>他指出,目前仍不确定美国散户投资人是否会再次进场逢低买进,因为美国家庭目前持有股票的比重已处于历史高点。</p>\n\n<p>Rosenberg 写道,问题在于,那些充满「错失恐惧症」(FOMO)情绪的美国散户投资人,是否会再次扮演逢低买盘的角色;这是个合理的疑问,因为过去一个月共同基金资金流入大幅增加,而目前股票占美国家庭金融资产组合的比重已创下 73% 的历史新高。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11510.html\" title=\"Anthropic揭Claude Code「省钱6招」!善用快取、/clear降低Token成本\">Anthropic揭Claude Code「省钱6招」!善用快取、/clear降低Token成本</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4014.html\" title=\"义大利对微软展开调查 质疑Microsoft 365涨价及AI捆绑策略\">义大利对微软展开调查 质疑Microsoft 365涨价及AI捆绑策略</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6045.html\" title=\"伊朗南部再传爆炸 美方否认空袭 分析指以色列涉入可能性高\">伊朗南部再传爆炸 美方否认空袭 分析指以色列涉入可能性高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11426.html\" title=\"中国版Apple Intelligence技术路线曝光!核心不用Gemini、改采苹果自研模型\">中国版Apple Intelligence技术路线曝光!核心不用Gemini、改采苹果自研模型</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7718.html\" title=\"AI抢光记忆体产能 PC DRAM一年暴涨逾400%\">AI抢光记忆体产能 PC DRAM一年暴涨逾400%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11854.html\" title=\"以为买债能分散AI风险?摩根大通警告股债一起中招\">以为买债能分散AI风险?摩根大通警告股债一起中招</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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