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苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响

2026-08-21 02:10:11 钜亨网 阅读(5)

苹果秋季发表会,折叠机与pro先行,iPhone18标准版明年3月发布

苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响

即将到来的年度大事秋季发表会,9月发布的新品有:

◆iPhone: Ultra折叠机、18 Pro, 18 Pro Max

◆Apple Watch: Series 12、Ultra 4

◆Apple TV box、HomePod mini iPhone

◆一般版 iPhone 18、18e、Air2 则要在明年3月推出

出货量预估:外资法人估26Q3 iPhone 生产5400万支,但下调 iPad 生产量至1200万台。折叠新机H2 约700–800 万支。当然首波拉货不足以代表什么,因为苹果惯性的拉货手法分两波,通常都是Q2~Q3陆续备货新机发布,真正重要的是Q4二波拉货,因应实际销量的数字,届时的拉货数字才是真正反应实际销售状况,与供应链营收的分水岭

BOM结构剧烈改变,记忆体成本占比攀升,涨价难以避免

首先面对到的是记忆体涨价,涵盖LPDDR6X RAM、QLC/SLC NAND的记忆体成本占比大幅飙升,如下表,目前主要观察到的是利用面板砍价,换取部分记忆体涨价导致的成本压力,但实际上,不能只考量iPhone18 Pro、Pro max,折叠机的推出,相关面板与绞链会是捆绑销售与变相规格升级与涨价之处。

长短料风险攀升,记忆体备货量不足?

除了涨价以外,这要也等到实际售价公开与终端消费者而定,但长短料风险立即上升,近期传闻甚嚣尘上的是台积电的库存周转次数明显降低/周转天数明显攀升,因此部分机构猜测台积电囤积了十亿美元以上的处理器半成品,主要是等待十分紧缺的记忆体供应。

部分反驳论点认为,为了9月新机发布,先囤积晶片库存是很正常的,Q2季底的数字就会是最库存周转次数的相对低点。本中心认为这个数据并不是太能就这样轻描淡写的带过。

首先将台积电逐季库存周转次数,分为每年度的Q1~Q4制表呈现如上,明显看出季节性影响,所谓Q2为相对低点并非如此,尤其是2024、2025愈来愈不适用,计算公式是销货成本除以平均存货,这反应台积电的营收占比中AI加速器的占比愈来愈高,反驳方的论点不太扎实

因此这个库存异常堆高的数字,必然是某项主要产品的影响,答案呼之欲出,推测苹果手机AP、Rubin两者二选一,或各有贡献。本中心认为前者的贡献较大。

小结:

这个消息尚未完全发酵也未被证实,台积电也不可能会对外说明,苹果股价在财报公布后下跌,300元正式失守,可留意看外作内与估值去化效应,资金提款的潜在主要标的,可能落在手机供应链

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    "content": "\n<p><em>苹果秋季发表会,折叠机与pro先行,iPhone18标准版明年3月发布 </em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/1e3e2c25249eee13b160cf8ffb6df1d3.jpg\" alt=\"苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><span>即将到来的年度大事秋季发表会,9月发布的新品有: </span></p>\n\n<p><span>◆iPhone: Ultra折叠机、18 Pro, 18 Pro Max </span></p>\n\n<p><span>◆Apple Watch:  Series 12、Ultra 4 </span></p>\n\n<p><span>◆Apple TV box、HomePod mini iPhone </span></p>\n\n<p><span>◆一般版 iPhone 18、18e、Air2 则要在明年3月推出</span></p>\n\n<p><span>出货量预估:外资法人估26Q3 iPhone 生产5400万支,但下调 iPad 生产量至1200万台。折叠新机H2 约700&ndash;800 万支。当然首波拉货不足以代表什么,因为苹果惯性的拉货手法分两波,通常都是Q2~Q3陆续备货新机发布,真正重要的是Q4二波拉货,因应实际销量的数字,届时的拉货数字才是真正反应实际销售状况,与供应链营收的分水岭</span></p>\n\n<p><em><span>BOM结构剧烈改变,记忆体成本占比攀升,涨价难以避免</span></em></p>\n\n<p><span>首先面对到的是记忆体涨价,涵盖LPDDR6X RAM、QLC/SLC NAND的记忆体成本占比大幅飙升,如下表,目前主要观察到的是利用面板砍价,换取部分记忆体涨价导致的成本压力,但实际上,不能只考量iPhone18 Pro、Pro max,折叠机的推出,相关面板与绞链会是捆绑销售与变相规格升级与涨价之处。</span></p>\n\n<p><em><span>长短料风险攀升,记忆体备货量不足?</span></em></p>\n\n<p><span>除了涨价以外,这要也等到实际售价公开与终端消费者而定,但长短料风险立即上升,近期传闻甚嚣尘上的是台积电的库存周转次数明显降低/周转天数明显攀升,因此部分机构猜测台积电囤积了十亿美元以上的处理器半成品,主要是等待十分紧缺的记忆体供应。</span></p>\n\n<p><span>部分反驳论点认为,为了9月新机发布,先囤积晶片库存是很正常的,Q2季底的数字就会是最库存周转次数的相对低点。本中心认为这个数据并不是太能就这样轻描淡写的带过。</span></p>\n\n<p><span>首先将台积电逐季库存周转次数,分为每年度的Q1~Q4制表呈现如上,明显看出季节性影响,所谓Q2为相对低点并非如此,尤其是2024、2025愈来愈不适用,计算公式是销货成本除以平均存货,这反应台积电的营收占比中AI加速器的占比愈来愈高,反驳方的论点不太扎实</span></p>\n\n<p><span>因此这个库存异常堆高的数字,必然是某项主要产品的影响,答案呼之欲出,推测苹果手机AP、Rubin两者二选一,或各有贡献。本中心认为前者的贡献较大。</span></p>\n\n<p><em><span>小结:</span></em></p>\n\n<p><span>这个消息尚未完全发酵也未被证实,台积电也不可能会对外说明,苹果股价在财报公布后下跌,300元正式失守,可留意看外作内与估值去化效应,资金提款的潜在主要标的,可能落在手机供应链</span></p>\n\n<p>(撰文者:永诚资产管理处分析师 范振峰)</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>点击下图【60 秒测试 你的理财天赋有几分?】</strong></em></p>\n\n<figure><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"190\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/m/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/xl/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/xxl/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 3x\"></img></a></figure>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」,20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区,以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务,让努力累积财富的你,也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。</p>\n\n<p>没有代理金融商品,不以商品销售出发,减少你的财务漏洞!从资产配置出发,透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」,你不需牺牲时间体力,就能感受到资产提升!</p>\n\n<p>「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑</p>\n\n<p>▪立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a></p>\n\n<p>▪进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a></p>\n\n<p>▪收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br></br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br></br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p>\n\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11561.html\" title=\"国科会吴诚文率团访匹兹堡 深化台美AI与机器人科技合作\">国科会吴诚文率团访匹兹堡 深化台美AI与机器人科技合作</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7656.html\" title=\"工业电脑全面起飞?值得注意的 Physical AI 受惠股开始浮现\">工业电脑全面起飞?值得注意的 Physical AI 受惠股开始浮现</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-1816.html\" title=\"外资连5买力捧 八贯大涨逾半停板站上百元大关\">外资连5买力捧 八贯大涨逾半停板站上百元大关</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4312.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:万海(2615-TW)目标价调降至85元,幅度约3.41%\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:万海(2615-TW)目标价调降至85元,幅度约3.41%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-1626.html\" title=\"中国反制日菲 海警展开环台执法\">中国反制日菲 海警展开环台执法</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8761.html\" title=\"柜买指数重挫5.16% 柜买中心喊话基本面稳健 近7成上柜公司营收正成长\">柜买指数重挫5.16% 柜买中心喊话基本面稳健 近7成上柜公司营收正成长</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-08-14T09:51:31.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-08-20T18:10:11.000Z"
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