苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响

苹果秋季发表会，折叠机与pro先行，iPhone18标准版明年3月发布

苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响

即将到来的年度大事秋季发表会，9月发布的新品有:

◆iPhone: Ultra折叠机、18 Pro, 18 Pro Max

◆Apple Watch: Series 12、Ultra 4

◆Apple TV box、HomePod mini iPhone

◆一般版 iPhone 18、18e、Air2 则要在明年3月推出

出货量预估：外资法人估26Q3 iPhone 生产5400万支，但下调 iPad 生产量至1200万台。折叠新机H2 约700–800 万支。当然首波拉货不足以代表什么，因为苹果惯性的拉货手法分两波，通常都是Q2~Q3陆续备货新机发布，真正重要的是Q4二波拉货，因应实际销量的数字，届时的拉货数字才是真正反应实际销售状况，与供应链营收的分水岭

BOM结构剧烈改变，记忆体成本占比攀升，涨价难以避免

首先面对到的是记忆体涨价，涵盖LPDDR6X RAM、QLC/SLC NAND的记忆体成本占比大幅飙升，如下表，目前主要观察到的是利用面板砍价，换取部分记忆体涨价导致的成本压力，但实际上，不能只考量iPhone18 Pro、Pro max，折叠机的推出，相关面板与绞链会是捆绑销售与变相规格升级与涨价之处。

长短料风险攀升，记忆体备货量不足?

除了涨价以外，这要也等到实际售价公开与终端消费者而定，但长短料风险立即上升，近期传闻甚嚣尘上的是台积电的库存周转次数明显降低/周转天数明显攀升，因此部分机构猜测台积电囤积了十亿美元以上的处理器半成品，主要是等待十分紧缺的记忆体供应。

部分反驳论点认为，为了9月新机发布，先囤积晶片库存是很正常的，Q2季底的数字就会是最库存周转次数的相对低点。本中心认为这个数据并不是太能就这样轻描淡写的带过。

首先将台积电逐季库存周转次数，分为每年度的Q1~Q4制表呈现如上，明显看出季节性影响，所谓Q2为相对低点并非如此，尤其是2024、2025愈来愈不适用，计算公式是销货成本除以平均存货，这反应台积电的营收占比中AI加速器的占比愈来愈高，反驳方的论点不太扎实

因此这个库存异常堆高的数字，必然是某项主要产品的影响，答案呼之欲出，推测苹果手机AP、Rubin两者二选一，或各有贡献。本中心认为前者的贡献较大。

小结:

这个消息尚未完全发酵也未被证实，台积电也不可能会对外说明，苹果股价在财报公布后下跌，300元正式失守，可留意看外作内与估值去化效应，资金提款的潜在主要标的，可能落在手机供应链

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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"articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "苹果秋季发表会，折叠机与pro先行，iPhone18标准版明年3月发布即将到来的年度大事秋季发表会，9月发布的新品有: ◆iPhone: Ultra折叠机、18 Pro, 18 Pro Max ◆Apple Watch:  Series 12、Ultra 4 ◆Apple TV box、HomePod mini iPhone ◆一般版 iPhone 18、18e、Air2 则要在明年3月推出出货量预估：外资法人估26Q3 iPhone 生产5400万支，但下调 iPad 生产量至1", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/1e3e2c25249eee13b160cf8ffb6df1d3.jpg", "content": "\n苹果秋季发表会，折叠机与pro先行，iPhone18标准版明年3月发布 \n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/1e3e2c25249eee13b160cf8ffb6df1d3.jpg\" alt=\"苹果新机受记忆体涨价与长短料双重影响\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n即将到来的年度大事秋季发表会，9月发布的新品有: \n\n◆iPhone: Ultra折叠机、18 Pro, 18 Pro Max \n\n◆Apple Watch: Series 12、Ultra 4 \n\n◆Apple TV box、HomePod mini iPhone \n\n◆一般版 iPhone 18、18e、Air2 则要在明年3月推出\n\n出货量预估：外资法人估26Q3 iPhone 生产5400万支，但下调 iPad 生产量至1200万台。折叠新机H2 约700–800 万支。当然首波拉货不足以代表什么，因为苹果惯性的拉货手法分两波，通常都是Q2~Q3陆续备货新机发布，真正重要的是Q4二波拉货，因应实际销量的数字，届时的拉货数字才是真正反应实际销售状况，与供应链营收的分水岭\n\nBOM结构剧烈改变，记忆体成本占比攀升，涨价难以避免\n\n首先面对到的是记忆体涨价，涵盖LPDDR6X RAM、QLC/SLC NAND的记忆体成本占比大幅飙升，如下表，目前主要观察到的是利用面板砍价，换取部分记忆体涨价导致的成本压力，但实际上，不能只考量iPhone18 Pro、Pro max，折叠机的推出，相关面板与绞链会是捆绑销售与变相规格升级与涨价之处。\n\n长短料风险攀升，记忆体备货量不足?\n\n除了涨价以外，这要也等到实际售价公开与终端消费者而定，但长短料风险立即上升，近期传闻甚嚣尘上的是台积电的库存周转次数明显降低/周转天数明显攀升，因此部分机构猜测台积电囤积了十亿美元以上的处理器半成品，主要是等待十分紧缺的记忆体供应。\n\n部分反驳论点认为，为了9月新机发布，先囤积晶片库存是很正常的，Q2季底的数字就会是最库存周转次数的相对低点。本中心认为这个数据并不是太能就这样轻描淡写的带过。\n\n首先将台积电逐季库存周转次数，分为每年度的Q1~Q4制表呈现如上，明显看出季节性影响，所谓Q2为相对低点并非如此，尤其是2024、2025愈来愈不适用，计算公式是销货成本除以平均存货，这反应台积电的营收占比中AI加速器的占比愈来愈高，反驳方的论点不太扎实\n\n因此这个库存异常堆高的数字，必然是某项主要产品的影响，答案呼之欲出，推测苹果手机AP、Rubin两者二选一，或各有贡献。本中心认为前者的贡献较大。\n\n小结:\n\n这个消息尚未完全发酵也未被证实，台积电也不可能会对外说明，苹果股价在财报公布后下跌，300元正式失守，可留意看外作内与估值去化效应，资金提款的潜在主要标的，可能落在手机供应链\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<figure><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"190\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/m/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/l/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/xl/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6577287/xxl/f3977dcb1779263aedb496ca1a72e959.jpg 3x\"></img></a></figure>\n\n \n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑\n\n▪立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a>\n\n▪进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a>\n\n▪收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12099.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：旺矽(6223-TW)EPS预估上修至64.67元，预估目标价为8500元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：旺矽(6223-TW)EPS预估上修至64.67元，预估目标价为8500元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10207.html\" title=\"〈台币〉股汇齐挫！一度掼破32.3关卡中止连2升收32.288元\">〈台币〉股汇齐挫！一度掼破32.3关卡中止连2升收32.288元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17088.html\" title=\"禾伸堂(3026)狂赚翻倍！利基型MLCC是「下一个记忆体」，还是日韩进逼前的最后荣景？\">禾伸堂(3026)狂赚翻倍！利基型MLCC是「下一个记忆体」，还是日韩进逼前的最后荣景？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5016.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 2026年7月4日台股中小型公司6月营收一览（新增76家）\">营收速报 - 2026年7月4日台股中小型公司6月营收一览（新增76家）</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13618.html\" title=\"〈车市〉8月销量跌破3万台创近半年低 Q4渐入佳境\">〈车市〉8月销量跌破3万台创近半年低 Q4渐入佳境</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9626.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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