去杠杆之后，长债殖利率又来袭！美财长放大招！震荡后的长线选股策略

美国财政部部长贝森特日前(8/19)公布将回购美国长债的规模增加一倍，单次上限由 20 亿美元提高至至少 40 亿美元，首次回购操作于9月9日进行，长债回购规模至少提升至140亿美元，相当于预计期间的20年期和30年期债券约13%的发行量。但显然这个回购规模并不够，美债殖利率压回一日之后，再度回升。

目前传出美国财政部可能动用「一般帐户」(TGA)目前约有9500亿美元，进行长债的回购。由于目前的市场环境并不适合联准会降息，川普政府由财政部出面主导「扭转操作」(QT)，由于总发行量未改变，主要是运用债务管理政策来抑制长期债券殖利率，但总体来说，美国财政部部长贝森特展现「不惜一切代价」的决心，去降低长债殖利率。

由于美国财政部可采用发行短期国库券(T-bills)的方式置换长债，总体债务规模不变，因此，不用担心其财源，影响政策执行的期间与规模。过去市场总是说「不要和联准会对抗」，现在或许应该说「不要和财政部对抗」。

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受到AI基础建设的火热，超大规模云端服务商 (Hyperscalers) 因大规模资本支出，在2024年后自由现金流(FCF)出现断崖式下跌，甚至首次跌入负值。资金大幅流入半导体与关键零组件等「卖铲人」手中。市场担忧下，资金从超大规模云端服务商流入半导体公司，甲骨文(ORCL-US)今年股价依然下跌27%，即使近期半导体类股遭遇挑战，今年费半指数累计涨幅依然高达61%。

但随着AI模型转向推理AI与代理AI的算力需求大增，超大规模云端服务商的投入资本报酬率(ROIC)显现，未来营运杠杆效应将较市场预期的高，更加深超大规模云端服务商对未来资本支出的信心。因此，即使从六月底全球去杠杆导致全球股市震荡，AI上下游供应链对于未来产业前景依然看好，投资朋友反而应该利用市场震荡的机会找寻买点。

辉达(NVDA-US)财报与财测公布前连续第七个交易日收黑，先不管市场如何看待辉达的财报与财测，但有一点不变的新一代Vera Rubin平台将进入大规模量产，投资朋友可留意相关供应链的买点机会，下方为Vera Rubin供应链绩优股，提供给投资朋友参考。

从全球去杠杆到现在全强长债的走升，下半年开始全球股市面对的风险与挑战高，选股难度大增，目前更需要的是长线产业面的基本面把握度，并在关键的时候进场。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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alt=\"去杠杆之后，长债殖利率又来袭！美财长放大招！震荡后的长线选股策略\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n目前传出美国财政部可能动用「一般帐户」(TGA)目前约有9500亿美元，进行长债的回购。由于目前的市场环境并不适合联准会降息，川普政府由财政部出面主导「扭转操作」(QT)，由于总发行量未改变，主要是运用债务管理政策来抑制长期债券殖利率，但总体来说，美国财政部部长贝森特展现「不惜一切代价」的决心，去降低长债殖利率。\n\n由于美国财政部可采用发行短期国库券(T-bills)的方式置换长债，总体债务规模不变，因此，不用担心其财源，影响政策执行的期间与规模。过去市场总是说「不要和联准会对抗」，现在或许应该说「不要和财政部对抗」。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n受到AI基础建设的火热，超大规模云端服务商 (Hyperscalers) 因大规模资本支出，在2024年后自由现金流(FCF)出现断崖式下跌，甚至首次跌入负值。资金大幅流入半导体与关键零组件等「卖铲人」手中。市场担忧下，资金从超大规模云端服务商流入半导体公司，甲骨文(ORCL-US)今年股价依然下跌27%，即使近期半导体类股遭遇挑战，今年费半指数累计涨幅依然高达61%。\n\n但随着AI模型转向推理AI与代理AI的算力需求大增，超大规模云端服务商的投入资本报酬率(ROIC)显现，未来营运杠杆效应将较市场预期的高，更加深超大规模云端服务商对未来资本支出的信心。因此，即使从六月底全球去杠杆导致全球股市震荡，AI上下游供应链对于未来产业前景依然看好，投资朋友反而应该利用市场震荡的机会找寻买点。\n\n辉达(NVDA-US)财报与财测公布前连续第七个交易日收黑，先不管市场如何看待辉达的财报与财测，但有一点不变的新一代Vera Rubin平台将进入大规模量产，投资朋友可留意相关供应链的买点机会，下方为Vera Rubin供应链绩优股，提供给投资朋友参考。\n\n从全球去杠杆到现在全强长债的走升，下半年开始全球股市面对的风险与挑战高，选股难度大增，目前更需要的是长线产业面的基本面把握度，并在关键的时候进场。\n\n台股回测月线支撑好买点，不想错过的投资朋友？加入我的行列，可先加入<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>并私讯【金融家】\n\nVera Rubin概念股：\n\nIC：台积电(2330-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)\n\n组装：鸿海(2317-TW)、广达(2382-TW)、纬颖(6669-TW)\n\n散热：奇𬭎(3017-TW)、双鸿(3324-TW)、健策(3653-TW)、富世达(6805-TW)\n\n零组件：欣兴(3037-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、台达电(2308-TW)、光宝科(2301-TW)、新盛力(4931-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n\n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17701.html\" title=\"群联(8299)不是辉达认证商，为何能携Tesla Megapack抢进DSX AI工厂？第二成长曲线先看这3点\">群联(8299)不是辉达认证商，为何能携Tesla Megapack抢进DSX AI工厂？第二成长曲线先看这3点</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-19252.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-8.71点至421.75点，跌幅2.02%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-8.71点至421.75点，跌幅2.02%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10336.html\" title=\"志圣H1获利创新高EPS达 7.16元 7月营收以11.68亿元再登顶\">志圣H1获利创新高EPS达 7.16元 7月营收以11.68亿元再登顶</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17757.html\" title=\"鸿海转型有成董座刘扬伟获选2026全球百大制造业领袖第7名\">鸿海转型有成董座刘扬伟获选2026全球百大制造业领袖第7名</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5409.html\" title=\"继电器厂松川精密获利走强中 2元股息订7/24除息\">继电器厂松川精密获利走强中 2元股息订7/24除息</a></li>\n <li><a 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