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华许鹰派讯号加剧债市波动 00990B经理人教战选债「三大关键」

2026-09-04 11:18:53 网络 阅读(1)

美国政府债务规模突破40兆美元,财政疑虑一度推升30年美债殖利率达5.3%,加上联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)于全球央行年会释出鹰派讯号,债券市场同时面临财政、政策不确定性。国泰投信表示,当债市波动加大,除了利率方向,债券布局更应着重「天期、票息、信用品质」。

华许鹰派讯号加剧债市波动 00990B经理人教战选债「三大关键」

具备月配息机制的国泰收益非投等债(00990B-TW)聚焦「短天期、高票息、明日之星信用升级机会」三大特色,自7月初挂牌后,本周已公告即将于9月23日迎来首次除息,每单位配发 0.08 元,若以昨日收盘价9.96元推算,年化报酬率达 9.64%,投资人若欲参与本次配息,最晚须于22日买进,预定10月20日发放。

00990B基金经理人陈韵竹表示,近期长天期美债受到财政赤字、债券供给及政策预期等多重因素影响,殖利率维持高档,加上华许强调通膨仍高于2%目标,在Fed政策方向尚未明朗下,美债殖利率短线可能持续高档震荡,也使控制债券天期的重要性提高,须留意的是,相较于长天期债券,短天期债券受到利率变化影响会相对低。

00990B基金经理人陈韵竹补充,除了天期之外,同时还要留意「信用分化」,今年以来整体美国非投资等级债信用利差(OAS)仍处历史相对低档,但CCC级债券利差已明显扩大,与BB、B级债券走势脱钩,显示风险逐渐集中于财务体质较弱的企业,目前并非全面性的信用恶化,而是更加考验投资人选债能力。

00990B追踪的「彭博TPEx 1-5年成熟市场明日之星收益优选票息美元非投资等级债券指数」主要投资剩余年限1至5年的非投资等级公司债,在选券机制上,指数采取更严格的信用筛选标准,运用「一票否决」机制,只要三大信评机构任一评等落于CCC+以下即予以排除,降低弱质企业信用风险,同时筛选票面利率前30%的券种,并设定单一发行人权重上限2%、单一产业上限15%,降低过度集中风险对投资组合的影响,兼顾票息机会与风险分散。

截至9月1日,00990B成分债的平均存续期间约1.69年,在当前利率仍处相对高档的环境下,兼具收益吸引力与较低利率敏感度的短天期债券,已是债市布局焦点。尤其近期股市位处相对高档、震荡加剧,投资人除掌握股市成长机会外,债券仍是资产配置不可或缺的重要一环,透过股债搭配,有助分散单一市场风险、降低整体投资组合波动。

※免责声明:文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考,并非投资建议,投资人应独立判断,审慎评估风险,自负盈亏。

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