博通携TOPPAN扩产利空延烧！南电、欣兴续挫逾4%，载板股连两日交易订单分食风险

2026-10-19 18:26:37 网络阅读（55）
2026年09月04日（优分析／产业数据中心报导）⸺ 博通Broadcom(AVGO-US)扩充载板供应链的消息，连续第二天冲击台湾载板股。南电(8046-TW)昨日跌停后，今早盘中再跌5.56%至1,020元，欣兴(3037-TW)跌4.12%至885元，臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)跌2.80%，景硕(3189-TW)跌2.73%。盘面持续反映博通导入新供应来源的利空，市场焦点已从AI载板需求成长，转向台厂未来订单是否遭到分食，以及议价能力是否受到影响。
筹码面也加重压力。三大法人昨日卖超南电7,726张、景硕6,984张、欣兴1,618张及臻鼎-KY 12,340张，利空出现后法人先行调节，今天卖压仍未明显收敛。
不过，博通协助TOPPAN在新加坡兴建FC-BGA载板新厂，背后仍是高阶载板供给不足。1.6T交换器晶片对ABF载板耗用量将翻倍，但南电新增产能最快2029年才开出，因此博通需要另外增加供给来源。换句话说，新增供应商并非来自AI需求转弱，而是AI ASIC与高速交换器需求增加后，现有载板产能难以完全支应。
另一项压力则来自BT载板涨价预期降温。南电第3季BT载板仍有涨价，但目前尚未收到上游原物料进一步涨价通知，第4季能否续涨仍不确定；另一方面，昆山厂ABF产能利用率正在提升，2027～2028年ABF载板供需缺口仍可能持续扩大。
目前载板股真正的争议因此并非AI需求能否延续，而是AI ASIC需求持续增加之际，新增载板产能将由谁取得订单。对南电、欣兴等台厂而言，后续观察重点将从整体AI载板市场规模，进一步转向博通ASIC供应链中的订单份额、TOPPAN新加坡产能爬坡速度，以及新增供应是否开始影响台厂的议价能力。
※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载，原文出处:原文连结
※ 免责声明：文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考，并非投资建议，投资人应独立判断，审慎评估风险。
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