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"description": "试想如果9月升息，但点阵图变动不大，真的是利空吗? 9月升不升息的议题，笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读，笔者早在今年开市后不久，2月底3月初，算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点，并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价，再度率先喊出「年底前升息」，而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。 从年初至今，对于升息或利率议题，一直都是完整的问题组，完整回答完，才是整合分析。 Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码? A1:升2码； Q2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC，一",
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"content": "<p><strong><u>试想如果9月升息，但点阵图变动不大，真的是利空吗?</u></strong><br>\n9月升不升息的议题，笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读，笔者早在今年开市后不久，2月底3月初，算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点，并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价，再度率先喊出「年底前升息」，而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/9d627f8033d71a91e7890b165f7ab111.jpg\" alt=\"9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图，升息与否固然重要但只是配角\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>从年初至今，对于升息或利率议题，一直都是完整的问题组，完整回答完，才是整合分析。<br>\n<strong>Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码? A1:升2码；<br>\nQ2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC，一开始是10月，目前转9月；<br>\nQ3:第二次升息什么时候? A3: 27年1/3月</strong></p>\n\n<p>所以这隐含一个有趣的现象的，如果「<strong>9月升息，但届时点阵图相比于6月并没有明显上移」，非常可能利率市场反而会利多解读</strong>，并非9月升息就世界末日，躲过9月就天下太平。重点应该摆在1.<strong>FED</strong><strong>内部是否仍多数认为会有二次加息，2.通膨数据是否只要没有回落，选项就只有不变/升息。因此点阵图比9月升息与否更重要。9月不升，Q4也会升，基本上只是时间早晚而已。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong><u>市场情绪或许浮动，但FED票委一直都有等待数据、中性观望的共识</u><br>\n市场情绪与舆论浮动，</strong>但截至9/4Polymarket上交易的9月FOMC利率决策，升息1码与不变仍机率相当。也可以发现<strong>有投票权的FOMC委员们发言，共识就是等数据、再看看</strong>，既然如此，现阶段讨论9月升息与否其实没太大意义，重点应该是<strong>8月CPI的事前事后分析，以及还会再升几码。</strong></p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"232\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.2758620689655173\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xxl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<p><strong><u>本周FOMC官员发言:</u><br>\n◇古尔斯比(芝加哥联储总裁，2027票委；中性偏鸽):</strong> 力挺抗通膨，警告经济过热通膨尚未脱离险境<br>\n<strong>◇威廉姆斯(纽约联储总裁，常任票委；中性偏鹰):</strong> 通膨数据令人鼓舞，随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退，通膨正缓慢下降，目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。<br>\n<strong>◇沃勒(理事，常任票委；中性偏鸽</strong>): 只要即将公布的8月通膨数据显示物价压力持续降温，他愿意支持Fed在9月会议维持利率不变</p>\n\n<p>（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师 范振峰）</p>\n\n<p><strong>点击下图【60 秒测试 你的理财天赋有几分？】</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"174\" data-ratio=\"4.011494252873563\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\"></a></p>\n\n<p>「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。</p>\n\n<p>没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！</p>\n\n<p>「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑<br>\n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a><br>\n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a><br>\n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6427.html\" title=\"〈台币〉午后猪羊变色！央行阻贬 惊险翻升收32.17元\">〈台币〉午后猪羊变色！央行阻贬 惊险翻升收32.17元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-438.html\" title=\"外资买超761亿元史上第4大 2天爆买1364亿元 拱台股首度收盘站上4万2\">外资买超761亿元史上第4大 2天爆买1364亿元 拱台股首度收盘站上4万2</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12353.html\" title=\"证交所「公布注意暨处置专区」上线 一站式查询强化资讯揭露\">证交所「公布注意暨处置专区」上线 一站式查询强化资讯揭露</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5756.html\" title=\"商总与日本商总签MOU 许舒博：未来扩大与全球商总签约、带服务业打国家队\">商总与日本商总签MOU 许舒博：未来扩大与全球商总签约、带服务业打国家队</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4311.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：华邦电(2344-TW)EPS预估上修至21.27元，预估目标价为236元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：华邦电(2344-TW)EPS预估上修至21.27元，预估目标价为236元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9336.html\" title=\"权值巨头熄火、主动式ETF锁码股发威，法人点名「这3大族群」准备接棒补涨！\">权值巨头熄火、主动式ETF锁码股发威，法人点名「这3大族群」准备接棒补涨！</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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