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9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图,升息与否固然重要但只是配角

2026-10-19 18:41:56 网络 阅读(54)

试想如果9月升息,但点阵图变动不大,真的是利空吗?
9月升不升息的议题,笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读,笔者早在今年开市后不久,2月底3月初,算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点,并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价,再度率先喊出「年底前升息」,而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。

9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图,升息与否固然重要但只是配角

从年初至今,对于升息或利率议题,一直都是完整的问题组,完整回答完,才是整合分析。
Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码? A1:升2码;
Q2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC,一开始是10月,目前转9月;
Q3:第二次升息什么时候? A3: 27年1/3月

所以这隐含一个有趣的现象的,如果「9月升息,但届时点阵图相比于6月并没有明显上移」,非常可能利率市场反而会利多解读,并非9月升息就世界末日,躲过9月就天下太平。重点应该摆在1.FED内部是否仍多数认为会有二次加息,2.通膨数据是否只要没有回落,选项就只有不变/升息。因此点阵图比9月升息与否更重要。9月不升,Q4也会升,基本上只是时间早晚而已。

市场情绪或许浮动,但FED票委一直都有等待数据、中性观望的共识
市场情绪与舆论浮动,
但截至9/4Polymarket上交易的9月FOMC利率决策,升息1码与不变仍机率相当。也可以发现有投票权的FOMC委员们发言,共识就是等数据、再看看,既然如此,现阶段讨论9月升息与否其实没太大意义,重点应该是8月CPI的事前事后分析,以及还会再升几码。

本周FOMC官员发言:
◇古尔斯比(芝加哥联储总裁,2027票委;中性偏鸽):
力挺抗通膨,警告经济过热通膨尚未脱离险境
◇威廉姆斯(纽约联储总裁,常任票委;中性偏鹰): 通膨数据令人鼓舞,随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退,通膨正缓慢下降,目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。
◇沃勒(理事,常任票委;中性偏鸽): 只要即将公布的8月通膨数据显示物价压力持续降温,他愿意支持Fed在9月会议维持利率不变

(撰文者:永诚资产管理处分析师 范振峰)

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    "description": "试想如果9月升息,但点阵图变动不大,真的是利空吗? 9月升不升息的议题,笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读,笔者早在今年开市后不久,2月底3月初,算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点,并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价,再度率先喊出「年底前升息」,而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。 从年初至今,对于升息或利率议题,一直都是完整的问题组,完整回答完,才是整合分析。 Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码?  A1:升2码; Q2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC,一",
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    "content": "<p><strong><u>试想如果9月升息,但点阵图变动不大,真的是利空吗?</u></strong><br>\n9月升不升息的议题,笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读,笔者早在今年开市后不久,2月底3月初,算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点,并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价,再度率先喊出「年底前升息」,而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/9d627f8033d71a91e7890b165f7ab111.jpg\" alt=\"9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图,升息与否固然重要但只是配角\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>从年初至今,对于升息或利率议题,一直都是完整的问题组,完整回答完,才是整合分析。<br>\n<strong>Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码?  A1:升2码;<br>\nQ2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC,一开始是10月,目前转9月;<br>\nQ3:第二次升息什么时候?  A3: 27年1/3月</strong></p>\n\n<p>所以这隐含一个有趣的现象的,如果「<strong>9月升息,但届时点阵图相比于6月并没有明显上移」,非常可能利率市场反而会利多解读</strong>,并非9月升息就世界末日,躲过9月就天下太平。重点应该摆在1.<strong>FED</strong><strong>内部是否仍多数认为会有二次加息,2.通膨数据是否只要没有回落,选项就只有不变/升息。因此点阵图比9月升息与否更重要。9月不升,Q4也会升,基本上只是时间早晚而已。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong><u>市场情绪或许浮动,但FED票委一直都有等待数据、中性观望的共识</u><br>\n市场情绪与舆论浮动,</strong>但截至9/4Polymarket上交易的9月FOMC利率决策,升息1码与不变仍机率相当。也可以发现<strong>有投票权的FOMC委员们发言,共识就是等数据、再看看</strong>,既然如此,现阶段讨论9月升息与否其实没太大意义,重点应该是<strong>8月CPI的事前事后分析,以及还会再升几码。</strong></p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"232\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.2758620689655173\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xxl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<p><strong><u>本周FOMC官员发言:</u><br>\n◇古尔斯比(芝加哥联储总裁,2027票委;中性偏鸽):</strong> 力挺抗通膨,警告经济过热通膨尚未脱离险境<br>\n<strong>◇威廉姆斯(纽约联储总裁,常任票委;中性偏鹰):</strong> 通膨数据令人鼓舞,随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退,通膨正缓慢下降,目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。<br>\n<strong>◇沃勒(理事,常任票委;中性偏鸽</strong>): 只要即将公布的8月通膨数据显示物价压力持续降温,他愿意支持Fed在9月会议维持利率不变</p>\n\n<p>(撰文者:永诚资产管理处分析师 范振峰)</p>\n\n<p><strong>点击下图【60 秒测试 你的理财天赋有几分?】</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"174\" data-ratio=\"4.011494252873563\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\"></a></p>\n\n<p>「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」,20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区,以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务,让努力累积财富的你,也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。</p>\n\n<p>没有代理金融商品,不以商品销售出发,减少你的财务漏洞!从资产配置出发,透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」,你不需牺牲时间体力,就能感受到资产提升!</p>\n\n<p>「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑<br>\n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a><br>\n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a><br>\n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16417.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉继电器厂松川营运动能增强中 股价开高重登300元大关\">〈焦点股〉继电器厂松川营运动能增强中 股价开高重登300元大关</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6370.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 鼎炫-KY(8499)6月营收3.54亿元年增率高达116.29%\">营收速报  - 鼎炫-KY(8499)6月营收3.54亿元年增率高达116.29%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-19137.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 皇龙(3512)9月营收1,450万元年增率高达47.39%\">营收速报  - 皇龙(3512)9月营收1,450万元年增率高达47.39%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12496.html\" title=\"中国旺旺被曝要裁员1,000人 要求员工反思\">中国旺旺被曝要裁员1,000人 要求员工反思</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-15568.html\" title=\"晶圆厂没它动不了!从面板级封装到次世代制程,这项「关键耗材」正在大缺货\">晶圆厂没它动不了!从面板级封装到次世代制程,这项「关键耗材」正在大缺货</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4641.html\" title=\"1档买遍全球!贝莱德首发ETF伞型基金009826+00991B 7/15开募\">1档买遍全球!贝莱德首发ETF伞型基金009826+00991B 7/15开募</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-04T08:14:12.000Z",
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