牧德(3563)法说释出强讯号，订单排到明年下半年！产能一口气扩至100亿元，2027年毛利率拚回60%以上

AOI检测设备厂牧德(3563-TW)昨(30)日召开法人说明会，公司表示，目前订单能见度已由过去约3至5个月拉长至接近一年，现阶段新增订单多数须排至2027年下半年交货，部分载板专案的能见度甚至长达3年。

订单拉长也迫使牧德(3563-TW)重新调整扩产规画，公司今年3月原先预计于年底前建立60亿元营收规模的产能，但随AI、半导体及载板需求持续增加，现有规画已不足以支应订单，因此将年底产能目标提高至100亿元，后续还可进一步扩充至130亿元。

牧德(3563-TW)8月营收3.61亿元，年增35.67%；累计前8月营收26.32亿元，累计年增14.39%。公司表示，目前已连续24个月营收年增、连续10个月月增，并连续6个月改写单月营收新高。

不过，扩产并不代表所有新产品都能立即放量，电测机因配合FOPLP应用提高定位精度，验证时程约延后一个月，显示后续成长除了产能，仍取决于新设备的客户认证与量产进度。

AI营收占比由70%提高至最高90%

牧德(3563-TW)目前采取「双轨四线」策略，两大市场分别为PCB与半导体封装，四条产品线则涵盖PCB AOI、PCB电测机、Wafer-level AOI及Packaged IC AOI。

PCB AOI目前已有13项产品销售，另有5项产品开发中，预计明年产品数量增至18项。半导体方面已有3项产品上市，但目前仅1项明显贡献营收，另外2项虽已通过验证，仍处于逐步导入阶段。

公司预估，2026年约70%营收来自AI相关产品；随半导体、载板、FOPLP及光模组设备陆续放量，2027年AI营收占比可望提高至80%至90%。

其中，2027年成长力道最强的业务预计是半导体与载板，其次为FOPLP与光模组；已于前期开始贡献的GPU及AI伺服器相关PCB设备，则以温和成长为主。相对而言，消费性产品过去占营收约10%至15%，公司将逐步降低承接比重，把有限产能优先配置至高单价、高附加价值产品。

FOPLP设备明年首季测试，电测机延后约一个月

公司预计于今年第四季末，将Packaged IC六面检设备送至客户端进行Beta Site测试；FOPLP设备则规画于2027年第一季送交测试，可应用于5微米/5微米以下的高阶载板，以及30×30与60×60规格的面板级封装。

电测机原本被公司视为下一项重要成长产品，但为了配合FOPLP更高的探针定位精度，公司重新调整取放及定位系统，研发进度因此延后约一个月，目前已重新送交客户验证。

这也代表牧德(3563-TW)虽已提前准备产能，但新产品仍须依序完成验证、试产与客户扩产，营收贡献不会在单一季度一次跳升。公司也指出，设备推出后通常要经过首次采购及认证，待客户下一轮扩厂才可能扩大采购，成功产品从初期导入到高速成长，最快仍需要两至三年。

产能冲上100亿元，供应链反而成为主要风险

为支应未来订单，牧德(3563-TW)将搬迁竹科部分业务、客服及仓储单位，腾出既有空间作为研发与生产使用，昆山新厂也预计年底完成。整体产能预计由原定60亿元提高至100亿元，并保留扩充至130亿元的空间，以支应2027年至2028年的需求。

然而，产能扩张目前最大的限制不只在厂房，而是关键零组件供应。公司表示，部分使用的Memory价格约上涨10倍、相机价格上涨逾2倍，部分零组件交期也由两至三个月延长至半年以上。

牧德(3563-TW)因此将长交期物料的备货量提高至交期的1.5倍，例如交期为6个月的零件，将预备约9个月需求，同时扩大两岸机加工供应链，以降低缺料对交货的影响。但提前备料也会推升库存与营运资金需求，若产品验证或客户扩产延后，仍须留意库存调整风险。

公司预期，随高阶半导体及载板产品占比提高、消费性低价订单下降，2027年产品组合将优于2026年，毛利率可望维持或回到60%以上。

因此，牧德(3563-TW)这次法说释出的讯号，不只是AI订单增加，而是公司已为订单能见度拉长重新调高产能上限。

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"articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "AOI检测设备厂牧德(3563-TW)昨(30)日召开法人说明会，公司表示，目前订单能见度已由过去约3至5个月拉长至接近一年，现阶段新增订单多数须排至2027年下半年交货，部分载板专案的能见度甚至长达3年。订单拉长也迫使牧德(3563-TW)重新调整扩产规画，公司今年3月原先预计于年底前建立60亿元营收规模的产能，但随AI、半导体及载板需求持续增加，现有规画已不足以支应订单，因此将年底产能目标提高至100亿元，后续还可进一步扩充至130亿元。牧德(3563-TW)8月营收3.61亿元，年增3", "img": "", "content": "<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6619570/o/d642eec51b00bfc383b9e83f03da762b.jpg\" alt=\"图片来源：优分析产业资料库\" /><p>AOI检测设备厂牧德(3563-TW)昨(30)日召开法人说明会，公司表示，目前订单能见度已由过去约3至5个月拉长至接近一年，现阶段新增订单多数须排至2027年下半年交货，部分载板专案的能见度甚至长达3年。</p>\n<p>订单拉长也迫使牧德(3563-TW)重新调整扩产规画，公司今年3月原先预计于年底前建立60亿元营收规模的产能，但随AI、半导体及载板需求持续增加，现有规画已不足以支应订单，因此将年底产能目标提高至100亿元，后续还可进一步扩充至130亿元。</p>\n<p>牧德(3563-TW)8月营收3.61亿元，年增35.67%；累计前8月营收26.32亿元，累计年增14.39%。公司表示，目前已连续24个月营收年增、连续10个月月增，并连续6个月改写单月营收新高。</p>\n<p>不过，扩产并不代表所有新产品都能立即放量，电测机因配合FOPLP应用提高定位精度，验证时程约延后一个月，显示后续成长除了产能，仍取决于新设备的客户认证与量产进度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6619570/o/4ce3ddc6b088bfc5aa3442d3c6867958.jpg\"></p>\n<h2>AI营收占比由70%提高至最高90%</h2>\n<p>牧德(3563-TW)目前采取「双轨四线」策略，两大市场分别为PCB与半导体封装，四条产品线则涵盖PCB AOI、PCB电测机、Wafer-level AOI及Packaged IC AOI。</p>\n<p>PCB AOI目前已有13项产品销售，另有5项产品开发中，预计明年产品数量增至18项。半导体方面已有3项产品上市，但目前仅1项明显贡献营收，另外2项虽已通过验证，仍处于逐步导入阶段。</p>\n<p>公司预估，2026年约70%营收来自AI相关产品；随半导体、载板、FOPLP及光模组设备陆续放量，2027年AI营收占比可望提高至80%至90%。</p>\n<p>其中，2027年成长力道最强的业务预计是半导体与载板，其次为FOPLP与光模组；已于前期开始贡献的GPU及AI伺服器相关PCB设备，则以温和成长为主。相对而言，消费性产品过去占营收约10%至15%，公司将逐步降低承接比重，把有限产能优先配置至高单价、高附加价值产品。</p>\n<h2>FOPLP设备明年首季测试，电测机延后约一个月</h2>\n<p>公司预计于今年第四季末，将Packaged IC六面检设备送至客户端进行Beta Site测试；FOPLP设备则规画于2027年第一季送交测试，可应用于5微米/5微米以下的高阶载板，以及30×30与60×60规格的面板级封装。</p>\n<p>电测机原本被公司视为下一项重要成长产品，但为了配合FOPLP更高的探针定位精度，公司重新调整取放及定位系统，研发进度因此延后约一个月，目前已重新送交客户验证。</p>\n<p>这也代表牧德(3563-TW)虽已提前准备产能，但新产品仍须依序完成验证、试产与客户扩产，营收贡献不会在单一季度一次跳升。公司也指出，设备推出后通常要经过首次采购及认证，待客户下一轮扩厂才可能扩大采购，成功产品从初期导入到高速成长，最快仍需要两至三年。</p>\n<h2>产能冲上100亿元，供应链反而成为主要风险</h2>\n<p>为支应未来订单，牧德(3563-TW)将搬迁竹科部分业务、客服及仓储单位，腾出既有空间作为研发与生产使用，昆山新厂也预计年底完成。整体产能预计由原定60亿元提高至100亿元，并保留扩充至130亿元的空间，以支应2027年至2028年的需求。</p>\n<p>然而，产能扩张目前最大的限制不只在厂房，而是关键零组件供应。公司表示，部分使用的Memory价格约上涨10倍、相机价格上涨逾2倍，部分零组件交期也由两至三个月延长至半年以上。</p>\n<p>牧德(3563-TW)因此将长交期物料的备货量提高至交期的1.5倍，例如交期为6个月的零件，将预备约9个月需求，同时扩大两岸机加工供应链，以降低缺料对交货的影响。但提前备料也会推升库存与营运资金需求，若产品验证或客户扩产延后，仍须留意库存调整风险。</p>\n<p>公司预期，随高阶半导体及载板产品占比提高、消费性低价订单下降，2027年产品组合将优于2026年，毛利率可望维持或回到60%以上。</p>\n<p>因此，牧德(3563-TW)这次法说释出的讯号，不只是AI订单增加，而是公司已为订单能见度拉长重新调高产能上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6619570/o/f1034dc1ca894a2ef7988022a89a9f56.jpg\"></p><p>※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载，原文出处:<a style=\"color:#A9A9A9\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https://uanalyze.com.tw/articles/3324356292\">原文连结</a>\n <br>※ 免责声明：文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考，并非投资建议，投资人应独立判断，审慎评估风险。</p>\n <p></p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9879.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉双鸿GB系列产品加单7月营收创高涨停重回千金股行列\">〈焦点股〉双鸿GB系列产品加单7月营收创高涨停重回千金股行列</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2558.html\" title=\"〈观察〉GPU及ASIC需求强劲健策、奇?、双鸿下半年营运看增\">〈观察〉GPU及ASIC需求强劲健策、奇?、双鸿下半年营运看增</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-15257.html\" title=\"公股携手「对治」中小企绿色焦虑台企银李嘉祥：金融业是企业永续最强推手\">公股携手「对治」中小企绿色焦虑台企银李嘉祥：金融业是企业永续最强推手</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10122.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：研华(2395-TW)目标价调升至710元，幅度约3.65%\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：研华(2395-TW)目标价调升至710元，幅度约3.65%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-252.html\" title=\"群联首度进军国际资本市场！完成8亿美元ECB定价，资金全数用于AI业务外币购料\">群联首度进军国际资本市场！完成8亿美元ECB定价，资金全数用于AI业务外币购料</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8808.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 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AI营收占比由70%提高至最高90%

FOPLP设备明年首季测试，电测机延后约一个月

产能冲上100亿元，供应链反而成为主要风险

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