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【被动涨价潮】国巨、华新科带头冲!主力洗盘3个月,10月低基期转机股曝光!

2026-10-02 09:40:06 网络 阅读(1)

台股正式进入光辉十月,进入第四季,AI产业仍是市场的重要主轴,但资金轮动也可能带来不同族群的表现机会。而有一个族群值得特别留意,那就是「被动元件」!经历了整整3个月的筹码大洗盘,10月台股最震撼的转折巨浪,正由被动元件正式领军爆发!

【被动涨价潮】国巨、华新科带头冲!主力洗盘3个月,10月低基期转机股曝光!

为什么是被动元件?筹码沉淀3个月,「扣三低」转折点爆发!

过去三个月,很多人觉得被动元件族群走势死气沉沉,以为AI狂潮没它的份。事实上,这是主力最标准的「洗盘阴招」把没有耐心的散户洗到脱皮抛售,让筹码高度集中到法人与主力手中。

到了10月,技术面正式迎来关键的「扣三低」转折点!当股价进入过去三个月的扣抵低价区,原本压在头上的均线将反转向上成为强烈支撑,这正是飙股从底部主升段起攻的起跑哨声。更重要的是,背后的产业基本面正在发生三大结构性巨变:

  • 原物料涨价与成本成功转嫁:铜、镍、银等上游金属价格飙升,看似是成本压力,但被动元件龙头具备极强的议价能力。三星电机已开出调涨报价第一枪,这波涨价潮正从代理商通路扩散至OEM、ODM等直接客户,代表产品毛利率与EPS直接迎来上修潮。
  • AI规格爆发:带动高阶元件供不应求 AI伺服器与ASIC平台算力越强,对稳定供电的要求就越高。辉达伺服器架构维持12V供电,对高容值小尺寸MLCC、NP0电容与钽质电容的需求大幅翻倍!高阶交期已拉长至20~26周,业界更预估高阶缺货潮将一路延续至2027年。
  • 国际龙头转单红利加持:全球龙头日本村田制作所宣布产品线优化,逐步停产部分常规MLCC,将资源全数转向顶级车用与航太高阶领域。这留下的庞大常规与中高阶订单,顺理成章全数转向技术精湛的台湾厂商,带来极为可观的转单红利!

国巨、华新科领军,被动元件个股值得追踪

当产业景气逐步回温,投资人不能只看龙头股,更要留意不同厂商的产品布局、获利结构与成长潜力。

国巨(2327-TW):全球被动元件巨头,完整布局MLCC、钽质电容与电阻。全面受惠辉达与ASIC高阶AI伺服器12V电源升级需求,加上并购效益发酵与高毛利产品比重拉升,获利成长动能强劲,具备产业定价权利基。

华新科(2492-TW):国内MLCC指标大厂,受惠村田转单效应与高阶产品组合改善。随着厂区稼动率攀升至高档,10月技术面扣三低转折点启动,毛利率与EPS具备强烈上修空间,为被动元件族群起涨的重要领头羊。

九豪(6127-TW):被动元件晶片电阻陶瓷基板领导厂。在国际大厂缩减产能、常规与中高阶转单效益下,订单能见度大增;搭配月线级数扣三低技术转折展现强烈攻击讯号,获利随产能利用率拉升大幅跳增。

钧宝(6155-TW):主攻磁性材料、电感及EMI抗干扰组件。AI伺服器与高功率电源架构对抗杂讯与电感需求大增,产品升级效益显著。筹码历经三个月沉淀后站上关键均线,营收与获利成长弹性极佳。

禾伸堂(3026-TW):切入AI电源,关注高阶产品成长

布局高阶MLCC及AI伺服器电源应用,随AI基础建设需求扩大,具备产品升级与营运成长机会,后续可追踪高阶产品出货及获利表现。

信昌电(6173-TW):华新科集团介电粉末与中高压大尺寸MLCC大厂。深耕高功率电源与工业AI,原料自给率高具成本优势,第二季EPS达1.79元,受惠稼动率提升与涨价潮,获利爆发力十足。

钰邦(6449-TW):全球卷绕型固态电容龙头,深耕AI板卡与伺服器供电。切入辉达等供应链,第二季EPS达2.31元,受惠伺服器板卡降噪稳压需求急增,订单能见度极高,获利成长显著。

天二科技(6834-TW):晶片电阻利基型大厂,专精高精密与厚薄膜电阻。受惠工控与车用AI升级带动高规格电阻需求,第二季EPS 1.15元且营收回温,筹码沉淀完毕,具备高毛利与成长弹性。

兴勤(2428-TW):保护元件龙头厂,专攻压敏与热敏电阻。第二季EPS高达5.34元居族群之冠,受惠AI伺服器高功率电源保护规格升级与车用电子复苏,具极强获利护城河与高毛利利基。

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文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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    "content": "<p>台股正式进入光辉十月,进入第四季,AI产业仍是市场的重要主轴,但资金轮动也可能带来不同族群的表现机会。而有一个族群值得特别留意,那就是「被动元件」!经历了整整3个月的筹码大洗盘,10月台股最震撼的转折巨浪,正由被动元件正式领军爆发!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/l/6d3ce5ba0ef42f4c89b80ea942e73d50.jpg\" alt=\"【被动涨价潮】国巨、华新科带头冲!主力洗盘3个月,10月低基期转机股曝光!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><em>为什么是被动元件?筹码沉淀3个月,「扣三低」转折点爆发!</em></p>\n\n<p>过去三个月,很多人觉得被动元件族群走势死气沉沉,以为AI狂潮没它的份。事实上,这是主力最标准的「洗盘阴招」把没有耐心的散户洗到脱皮抛售,让筹码高度集中到法人与主力手中。</p>\n\n<p>到了10月,技术面正式迎来关键的「扣三低」转折点!当股价进入过去三个月的扣抵低价区,原本压在头上的均线将反转向上成为强烈支撑,这正是飙股从底部主升段起攻的起跑哨声。更重要的是,背后的产业基本面正在发生三大结构性巨变:</p>\n\n<ul>\n<li>原物料涨价与成本成功转嫁:铜、镍、银等上游金属价格飙升,看似是成本压力,但被动元件龙头具备极强的议价能力。三星电机已开出调涨报价第一枪,这波涨价潮正从代理商通路扩散至OEM、ODM等直接客户,代表产品毛利率与EPS直接迎来上修潮。</li>\n<li>AI规格爆发:带动高阶元件供不应求 AI伺服器与ASIC平台算力越强,对稳定供电的要求就越高。辉达伺服器架构维持12V供电,对高容值小尺寸MLCC、NP0电容与钽质电容的需求大幅翻倍!高阶交期已拉长至20~26周,业界更预估高阶缺货潮将一路延续至2027年。</li>\n<li>国际龙头转单红利加持:全球龙头日本村田制作所宣布产品线优化,逐步停产部分常规MLCC,将资源全数转向顶级车用与航太高阶领域。这留下的庞大常规与中高阶订单,顺理成章全数转向技术精湛的台湾厂商,带来极为可观的转单红利!</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p><strong><em>国巨、华新科领军,被动元件个股值得追踪</em></strong></p>\n\n<p>当产业景气逐步回温,投资人不能只看龙头股,更要留意不同厂商的产品布局、获利结构与成长潜力。</p>\n\n<p>国巨(2327-TW):全球被动元件巨头,完整布局MLCC、钽质电容与电阻。全面受惠辉达与ASIC高阶AI伺服器12V电源升级需求,加上并购效益发酵与高毛利产品比重拉升,获利成长动能强劲,具备产业定价权利基。</p>\n\n<p>华新科(2492-TW):国内MLCC指标大厂,受惠村田转单效应与高阶产品组合改善。随着厂区稼动率攀升至高档,10月技术面扣三低转折点启动,毛利率与EPS具备强烈上修空间,为被动元件族群起涨的重要领头羊。</p>\n\n<p>九豪(6127-TW):被动元件晶片电阻陶瓷基板领导厂。在国际大厂缩减产能、常规与中高阶转单效益下,订单能见度大增;搭配月线级数扣三低技术转折展现强烈攻击讯号,获利随产能利用率拉升大幅跳增。</p>\n\n<p>钧宝(6155-TW):主攻磁性材料、电感及EMI抗干扰组件。AI伺服器与高功率电源架构对抗杂讯与电感需求大增,产品升级效益显著。筹码历经三个月沉淀后站上关键均线,营收与获利成长弹性极佳。</p>\n\n<p>禾伸堂(3026-TW):切入AI电源,关注高阶产品成长</p>\n\n<p>布局高阶MLCC及AI伺服器电源应用,随AI基础建设需求扩大,具备产品升级与营运成长机会,后续可追踪高阶产品出货及获利表现。</p>\n\n<p>信昌电(6173-TW):华新科集团介电粉末与中高压大尺寸MLCC大厂。深耕高功率电源与工业AI,原料自给率高具成本优势,第二季EPS达1.79元,受惠稼动率提升与涨价潮,获利爆发力十足。</p>\n\n<p>钰邦(6449-TW):全球卷绕型固态电容龙头,深耕AI板卡与伺服器供电。切入辉达等供应链,第二季EPS达2.31元,受惠伺服器板卡降噪稳压需求急增,订单能见度极高,获利成长显著。</p>\n\n<p>天二科技(6834-TW):晶片电阻利基型大厂,专精高精密与厚薄膜电阻。受惠工控与车用AI升级带动高规格电阻需求,第二季EPS 1.15元且营收回温,筹码沉淀完毕,具备高毛利与成长弹性。</p>\n\n<p>兴勤(2428-TW):保护元件龙头厂,专攻压敏与热敏电阻。第二季EPS高达5.34元居族群之冠,受惠AI伺服器高功率电源保护规格升级与车用电子复苏,具极强获利护城河与高毛利利基。</p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"424\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.7924528301886793\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/m/7bea5d935bd0ef20e4067ccc5a016e21.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/l/7bea5d935bd0ef20e4067ccc5a016e21.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/l/7bea5d935bd0ef20e4067ccc5a016e21.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/xl/7bea5d935bd0ef20e4067ccc5a016e21.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6620100/xxl/7bea5d935bd0ef20e4067ccc5a016e21.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<p>更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息&rarr;请加入江江Line@:</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a></p>\n\n<p>江江每日解盘影片&rarr;含金量满满,节目内容太精彩+太权威惹!</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/eSlPdJeF0sk\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p>坚持用心制作优质好节目,一定要看到最后!</p>\n\n<p>并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】</p>\n\n<p>文章来源:摩尔投顾-江国中分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2566.html\" title=\"链结东南亚AI枢纽 贸协6/23举办「2026新加坡市场趋势与商机说明会」\">链结东南亚AI枢纽 贸协6/23举办「2026新加坡市场趋势与商机说明会」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18139.html\" title=\"166万人小确幸!0056季配1.72元创新高 预估年化配息率12%\">166万人小确幸!0056季配1.72元创新高 预估年化配息率12%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16752.html\" title=\"中嘉宽频导入全光网路及AI影像辨识服务 扩大智慧城市应用新价值\">中嘉宽频导入全光网路及AI影像辨识服务 扩大智慧城市应用新价值</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12894.html\" title=\"全球用户活动量年增8% Garmin看准多元运动抢攻顶级户外穿戴商机\">全球用户活动量年增8% Garmin看准多元运动抢攻顶级户外穿戴商机</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11267.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:长荣航(2618-TW)EPS预估上修至4.3元,预估目标价为46.25元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:长荣航(2618-TW)EPS预估上修至4.3元,预估目标价为46.25元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16118.html\" title=\"颀邦(6147)从DDIC苦主翻身!毛利率重返30%,矽光子金凸块才是真亮点?\">颀邦(6147)从DDIC苦主翻身!毛利率重返30%,矽光子金凸块才是真亮点?</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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