【跨年度做梦行情】友达、联亚、台达电、联发科非首选？这几档才是下一档飙股？

每年的第四季到隔年第一季。这段期间，就是台股一年一度最狂热、最迷人的「跨年度做梦行情」！也就是说第四季台股最迷人的戏码从来不是现在赚多少，而是「未来能赚多久」。

但你要搞清楚，主力与法人大户绝对不是盲目乱做梦。真正能激发出双位数、甚至倍数爆发行情的，一定是「远期技术的无边想像空间」加上「近期业业绩即将放量」的黄金交集！

现在的 AI 晶片，运算速度快到连传统铜线、有机载板与旧电力系统都快「吐血」撑不住。当算力狂飙撞上了实体物理极限，谁能帮辉达等巨头解决这些烧脑瓶颈，谁就是未来两三年股市里最闪耀的巨星！

一、玻璃基板：把「木板桥」换成「钢骨大桥」

传统有机载板（ABF）就像老旧木桥，AI晶片越做越大、HBM堆得越多，热翘曲与讯号损耗就成了硬伤。玻璃基板则像用高强度钢骨加玻璃打造的超平整大桥，耐高温、不变形，讯号传输距离更短、密度更高。

辉达正在积极评估把玻璃基板导入下一代AI晶片封装，目标最快2028年前落地。台湾面板双虎凭借三十年大尺寸玻璃加工与精密布线经验，已经抢先卡位。

友达(2409-TW)与康宁合作，在半导体展展示大尺寸玻璃核心基板技术；群创(3481-TW)的Chip-first封装已进入量产，TGV技术也同步与客户验证。正达(3149-TW)、TPK-KY(3673-TW)、钛升(8027-TW)、东捷(8064-TW)、雷科(6207-TW)等设备与加工厂，都在试产与交机阶段。

二、光通讯与CPO：把「国道塞车」换成「光速高铁」

当传输速率从800G迈向1.6T甚至3.2T，铜线就像尖峰时刻的国道，不仅耗电发热像爆米花，讯号衰减更是无法接受。CPO（共封装光学）的逻辑很直白：把原本插在伺服器门口的光模组，直接搬到算力晶片身边「共封装」。路径变短，损耗大降，功耗直接省掉三成以上。

加上美系大厂对中国供应链的限制升温，转单效应正在发酵。台厂同时迎来「既有800G/1.6T产品放量」与「新架构导入」的重叠成长期。联亚(3081-TW)在矽光子雷射晶片已经进入大量量产；上诠(3363-TW)针对CPO光纤阵列元件积极验证与量产准备；华星光(4979-TW)、泛诠(6830-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、智邦(2345-TW)、光圣(6442-TW)都在订单能见度上看到未来几年的能见度。

三、800V AI供电与BBU：给算力怪兽装上「不断电保险心脏」

你家买了一台一万瓦的超大冷气，还硬插在110V旧插座上，结果会怎样？一开机保证跳电烧熔。AI伺服器现在就是这种吃电怪兽，机柜功率一路往上冲，传统电源架构已经撑不住。

解决方案很明确：升级到800V高压直流供电，同时把电池备援模组（BBU/DBU）从选配变成标准配备。辉达新一代伺服器架构已经把BBU列为必要元件，为的就是防止极端高负载时跳电，让价值连城的训练资料一秒蒸发。

台达电(2308-TW)直接与辉达合作，从中压配电、固态变压器、800V Power Rack到液冷系统，提供完整解决方案，并把庞大订单往上游释放。新盛力(4931-TW)、顺达(3211-TW)、AES-KY(6781-TW)等电池模组厂，则直接受惠于BBU渗透率的陡峭攀升。这不是单一产品升级，而是整条电力链从架构到备援的全面重做。BBU外，还有电源相关的功率元件的台半(5425-TW)、强茂(2481-TW)、富鼎(8261-TW)、德微(3675-TW)也值的特别留意。

四、AI ASIC：从「量贩店现成成衣」走向「顶级高级订制服」

过去云端巨头几乎都买辉达通用GPU，价格贵、功耗高，还不一定最契合自家演算法。现在大家纷纷转向开发自己的AI ASIC，就像量身打造的高级订制服，既省电又高效。

联发科(2454-TW)今年第四季正式启动第一个AI ASIC专案量产，目标资料中心相关营收上看二十亿美元以上。一旦第一个专案成功，后续第二代、第三代与新客户将陆续加入，形成「多客户、多世代」的长波段成长。创意(3443-TW)、世芯-KY(3661-TW)、智原(3035-TW)等设计服务与矽智财厂，也同步受惠于这股客制化浪潮。

这类技术升级不是一次出货就结束，而是持续迭代、持续放量的长线故事。所以把四大题材放在一起，你会发现一件非常有意思的事情：

⊙AI算力往上冲 → 封装变大 → 玻璃基板受关注；

⊙资料传输变快 → 铜线遇到瓶颈 → CPO、矽光子升级；

⊙AI机柜功率暴增 → 800V供电＋BBU成为基础建设；

⊙大型CSP追求更高效率 → AI ASIC开始进入量产周期。

这四条线，其实都在做同一件事：帮AI突破下一个物理极限。而这正是第四季到隔年第一季「做梦行情」最值得研究的地方。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

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"【跨年度做梦行情】友达、联亚、台达电、联发科非首选？这几档才", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "第四季至隔年第一季台股进入「跨年度做梦行情」，主打AI相关长线题材与未来成长想像。
玻璃基板、CPO/矽光子、800V供电与BBU、AI ASIC成为四大焦点，分别对应封装、传输、电力与客制化晶片升级。
台厂如友达、群创、联亚、台达电、联发科等被点名受惠，相关设备、光通讯与电池模组链也同步受关注。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621551/l/ae330cafc4d527ecf8ae850a82059fc9.jpg", "content": "每年的第四季到隔年第一季。这段期间，就是台股一年一度最狂热、最迷人的「跨年度做梦行情」！也就是说第四季台股最迷人的戏码从来不是现在赚多少，而是「未来能赚多久」。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621551/l/ae330cafc4d527ecf8ae850a82059fc9.jpg\" alt=\"【跨年度做梦行情】友达、联亚、台达电、联发科非首选？这几档才是下一档飙股？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n但你要搞清楚，主力与法人大户绝对不是盲目乱做梦。真正能激发出双位数、甚至倍数爆发行情的，一定是「远期技术的无边想像空间」加上「近期业业绩即将放量」的黄金交集！\n\n现在的 AI 晶片，运算速度快到连传统铜线、有机载板与旧电力系统都快「吐血」撑不住。当算力狂飙撞上了实体物理极限，谁能帮辉达等巨头解决这些烧脑瓶颈，谁就是未来两三年股市里最闪耀的巨星！\n\n一、玻璃基板：把「木板桥」换成「钢骨大桥」\n\n传统有机载板（ABF）就像老旧木桥，AI晶片越做越大、HBM堆得越多，热翘曲与讯号损耗就成了硬伤。玻璃基板则像用高强度钢骨加玻璃打造的超平整大桥，耐高温、不变形，讯号传输距离更短、密度更高。\n\n辉达正在积极评估把玻璃基板导入下一代AI晶片封装，目标最快2028年前落地。台湾面板双虎凭借三十年大尺寸玻璃加工与精密布线经验，已经抢先卡位。\n\n友达(2409-TW)与康宁合作，在半导体展展示大尺寸玻璃核心基板技术；群创(3481-TW)的Chip-first封装已进入量产，TGV技术也同步与客户验证。正达(3149-TW)、TPK-KY(3673-TW)、钛升(8027-TW)、东捷(8064-TW)、雷科(6207-TW)等设备与加工厂，都在试产与交机阶段。\n\n二、光通讯与CPO：把「国道塞车」换成「光速高铁」\n\n当传输速率从800G迈向1.6T甚至3.2T，铜线就像尖峰时刻的国道，不仅耗电发热像爆米花，讯号衰减更是无法接受。CPO（共封装光学）的逻辑很直白：把原本插在伺服器门口的光模组，直接搬到算力晶片身边「共封装」。路径变短，损耗大降，功耗直接省掉三成以上。\n\n加上美系大厂对中国供应链的限制升温，转单效应正在发酵。台厂同时迎来「既有800G/1.6T产品放量」与「新架构导入」的重叠成长期。联亚(3081-TW)在矽光子雷射晶片已经进入大量量产；上诠(3363-TW)针对CPO光纤阵列元件积极验证与量产准备；华星光(4979-TW)、泛诠(6830-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、智邦(2345-TW)、光圣(6442-TW)都在订单能见度上看到未来几年的能见度。\n\n三、800V AI供电与BBU：给算力怪兽装上「不断电保险心脏」\n\n你家买了一台一万瓦的超大冷气，还硬插在110V旧插座上，结果会怎样？一开机保证跳电烧熔。AI伺服器现在就是这种吃电怪兽，机柜功率一路往上冲，传统电源架构已经撑不住。\n\n解决方案很明确：升级到800V高压直流供电，同时把电池备援模组（BBU/DBU）从选配变成标准配备。辉达新一代伺服器架构已经把BBU列为必要元件，为的就是防止极端高负载时跳电，让价值连城的训练资料一秒蒸发。\n\n台达电(2308-TW)直接与辉达合作，从中压配电、固态变压器、800V Power Rack到液冷系统，提供完整解决方案，并把庞大订单往上游释放。新盛力(4931-TW)、顺达(3211-TW)、AES-KY(6781-TW)等电池模组厂，则直接受惠于BBU渗透率的陡峭攀升。这不是单一产品升级，而是整条电力链从架构到备援的全面重做。BBU外，还有电源相关的功率元件的台半(5425-TW)、强茂(2481-TW)、富鼎(8261-TW)、德微(3675-TW)也值的特别留意。\n\n四、AI ASIC：从「量贩店现成成衣」走向「顶级高级订制服」\n\n过去云端巨头几乎都买辉达通用GPU，价格贵、功耗高，还不一定最契合自家演算法。现在大家纷纷转向开发自己的AI ASIC，就像量身打造的高级订制服，既省电又高效。\n\n联发科(2454-TW)今年第四季正式启动第一个AI ASIC专案量产，目标资料中心相关营收上看二十亿美元以上。一旦第一个专案成功，后续第二代、第三代与新客户将陆续加入，形成「多客户、多世代」的长波段成长。创意(3443-TW)、世芯-KY(3661-TW)、智原(3035-TW)等设计服务与矽智财厂，也同步受惠于这股客制化浪潮。\n\n这类技术升级不是一次出货就结束，而是持续迭代、持续放量的长线故事。所以把四大题材放在一起，你会发现一件非常有意思的事情：\n\n⊙AI算力往上冲 → 封装变大 → 玻璃基板受关注；\n\n⊙资料传输变快 → 铜线遇到瓶颈 → CPO、矽光子升级；\n\n⊙AI机柜功率暴增 → 800V供电＋BBU成为基础建设；\n\n⊙大型CSP追求更高效率 → AI ASIC开始进入量产周期。\n\n这四条线，其实都在做同一件事：帮AI突破下一个物理极限。而这正是第四季到隔年第一季「做梦行情」最值得研究的地方。\n\n更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩+太权威惹！\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/Yp3J1EdEWN0\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-954.html\" title=\"童子贤：台湾股市本益比落在22至28倍不算过热\">童子贤：台湾股市本益比落在22至28倍不算过热</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11611.html\" title=\"指数高档遇解套卖压，财报利多反成出货陷阱？跟着主流资金大举转向卡位下半场！\">指数高档遇解套卖压，财报利多反成出货陷阱？跟着主流资金大举转向卡位下半场！</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10432.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 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