别只看5万点！真正会喷的是这几条AI支线

台股多头气势持续升温，期货盘中一度攻上50,097点，虽然终场收在49,949点，尚未正式站稳5万大关，但期货相对现货出现236点正价差，显示市场风险偏好正在回升。从技术面观察，指数突破前波高点后成功回测支撑，近期再度出现价涨量增的红K棒，DMI维持正DI大于负DI、ADX向上的多头排列，KD同步黄金交叉。若后续成交量能维持高档，5万点的意义可能不再只是压力，而有机会逐步转化为新的市场支撑，第四季行情也将从指数创高进一步转向产业与个股轮动。

推升市场信心的另一项关键，在于总经面的压力正在降温。最新非农数据降温，使市场重新修正10月升息预期，短线最大的不确定因素逐渐淡化，资金焦点也开始从「联准会何时升息」，重新回到企业获利与产业成长。美光财报已率先反映AI与记忆体需求仍具支撑，接下来台积电与美国大型科技公司财报将成为第四季最重要的基本面验证。另一方面，资料中心、先进制程、载板等领域资本支出仍持续增加，被动元件、矽晶圆、记忆体等产业也陆续出现涨价预期，显示AI基础建设需求并未因股市位阶升高而降温。

在权值股中，台积电仍是台股能否进一步打开上方空间的核心。市场目前高度聚焦即将登场的法说会，包括2奈米、A14先进制程进度，以及未来资本支出规模，都将牵动半导体族群评价。加上高通2奈米旗舰晶片传出将交由台积电生产，使先进制程竞争优势再次受到关注。联发科则代表另一条高成长主线，随着ASIC市场快速扩张，市场预期其AI ASIC出货量未来两年仍有大幅成长空间，也进一步带动创意、世芯等IC设计族群想像空间。换言之，台积电提供大型权值股的稳定度，联发科与ASIC则提供更高的获利成长弹性。

至于中小型股，第四季的轮动方向仍应围绕AI基础建设扩张。从PCB、铜箔、载板，到半导体设备、CPO与交换器，都有机会受惠规格升级与资本支出增加。近期金居、华新科、臻鼎、欣兴、金像电等供应链陆续转强，设备股则可持续观察台积电建厂、记忆体扩产及CPO设备需求；智邦、嘉泽等则同时具备高速传输、CPO或伺服器升级题材。操作上，指数逼近历史高档后不宜单纯追逐涨幅，而应重新检视明后年获利成长、评价与产业趋势。只要升息疑虑未重新升高、企业获利持续向上，第四季真正值得关注的，将不只是台股能否站上5万点，而是谁能成为5万点之后的新一波领涨主流。

今天台股大涨，你现在回头看，九月是不是该听我的？

九月的时候，我一直叫你们赶快进来卡位，我是真的急啊！

因为我怕的不是行情不来，我怕的是——行情真的来了，你却没有在车上！

现在回头看，该涨的开始涨、该喷的一档接一档喷。

你是不是该跟老师说一声：还好当初有提醒！

但我要告诉你，这波还没完，第四季行情才刚开始！

为什么我敢这样看？

第一，非农降温，市场升息预期明显下降，资金面的压力开始松动。

第二，今天台积电再传大利多——高通 2 奈米旗舰晶片将全面交由台积电生产，市场法人对台积电目标价普遍已经看到 3,000 元以上。

如果台积电继续往上攻，代表什么？

就是台股指数的天花板还有机会继续被撬开！

而当权值股把空间打开，接下来真正有爆发力的，就是那些还在低基期、准备补涨的中小型股票！

所以今天我们手上的股票，已经一档接一档开始表态

【8358 金居】强攻涨停

【6187 万润】早上买进就冲涨停

【2345 智邦】大涨 5.6%

【2454 联发科】大涨 4.34%

接下来就是拚绩效的时候了。

想知道第四季我接下来会操作哪些族群、哪些个股，

赶快加入会员，跟着我一起把握这一波这辈子难得的机会！

服务专线：0800-66-8085

或填表单

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScUWzB8FOET4-8AXBHiU2WtdffgdI6Iby_07TUYs7qsUpf3Fg/viewform?usp=publish-editor

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"author": "网络", "description": "台股期货盘中攻上50,097点，终场收49,949点，期现正价差236点，显示风险偏好回升。
非农降温压低10月升息预期，市场焦点转向台积电法说、美光与美国科技财报验证AI需求。
第四季主线看AI基础建设与先进制程，PCB、载板、设备、CPO、联发科与ASIC族群受关注。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621759/l/c42c73d363ba97ee09974172d4806dcb.jpg", "content": "台股多头气势持续升温，期货盘中一度攻上50,097点，虽然终场收在49,949点，尚未正式站稳5万大关，但期货相对现货出现236点正价差，显示市场风险偏好正在回升。从技术面观察，指数突破前波高点后成功回测支撑，近期再度出现价涨量增的红K棒，DMI维持正DI大于负DI、ADX向上的多头排列，KD同步黄金交叉。若后续成交量能维持高档，5万点的意义可能不再只是压力，而有机会逐步转化为新的市场支撑，第四季行情也将从指数创高进一步转向产业与个股轮动。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6621759/l/c42c73d363ba97ee09974172d4806dcb.jpg\" alt=\"别只看5万点！真正会喷的是这几条AI支线\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n推升市场信心的另一项关键，在于总经面的压力正在降温。最新非农数据降温，使市场重新修正10月升息预期，短线最大的不确定因素逐渐淡化，资金焦点也开始从「联准会何时升息」，重新回到企业获利与产业成长。美光财报已率先反映AI与记忆体需求仍具支撑，接下来台积电与美国大型科技公司财报将成为第四季最重要的基本面验证。另一方面，资料中心、先进制程、载板等领域资本支出仍持续增加，被动元件、矽晶圆、记忆体等产业也陆续出现涨价预期，显示AI基础建设需求并未因股市位阶升高而降温。\n\n在权值股中，台积电仍是台股能否进一步打开上方空间的核心。市场目前高度聚焦即将登场的法说会，包括2奈米、A14先进制程进度，以及未来资本支出规模，都将牵动半导体族群评价。加上高通2奈米旗舰晶片传出将交由台积电生产，使先进制程竞争优势再次受到关注。联发科则代表另一条高成长主线，随着ASIC市场快速扩张，市场预期其AI ASIC出货量未来两年仍有大幅成长空间，也进一步带动创意、世芯等IC设计族群想像空间。换言之，台积电提供大型权值股的稳定度，联发科与ASIC则提供更高的获利成长弹性。\n\n至于中小型股，第四季的轮动方向仍应围绕AI基础建设扩张。从PCB、铜箔、载板，到半导体设备、CPO与交换器，都有机会受惠规格升级与资本支出增加。近期金居、华新科、臻鼎、欣兴、金像电等供应链陆续转强，设备股则可持续观察台积电建厂、记忆体扩产及CPO设备需求；智邦、嘉泽等则同时具备高速传输、CPO或伺服器升级题材。操作上，指数逼近历史高档后不宜单纯追逐涨幅，而应重新检视明后年获利成长、评价与产业趋势。只要升息疑虑未重新升高、企业获利持续向上，第四季真正值得关注的，将不只是台股能否站上5万点，而是谁能成为5万点之后的新一波领涨主流。\n\n今天台股大涨，你现在回头看，九月是不是该听我的？\n\n九月的时候，我一直叫你们赶快进来卡位，我是真的急啊！\n\n因为我怕的不是行情不来，我怕的是——行情真的来了，你却没有在车上！\n\n现在回头看，该涨的开始涨、该喷的一档接一档喷。\n\n你是不是该跟老师说一声：还好当初有提醒！\n\n但我要告诉你，这波还没完，第四季行情才刚开始！\n\n为什么我敢这样看？\n\n第一，非农降温，市场升息预期明显下降，资金面的压力开始松动。\n\n第二，今天台积电再传大利多——高通 2 奈米旗舰晶片将全面交由台积电生产，市场法人对台积电目标价普遍已经看到 3,000 元以上。\n\n如果台积电继续往上攻，代表什么？\n\n就是台股指数的天花板还有机会继续被撬开！\n\n而当权值股把空间打开，接下来真正有爆发力的，就是那些还在低基期、准备补涨的中小型股票！\n\n所以今天我们手上的股票，已经一档接一档开始表态\n\n【8358 金居】强攻涨停\n\n【6187 万润】早上买进就冲涨停\n\n【2345 智邦】大涨 5.6%\n\n【2454 联发科】大涨 4.34%\n\n接下来就是拚绩效的时候了。\n\n想知道第四季我接下来会操作哪些族群、哪些个股，\n\n赶快加入会员，跟着我一起把握这一波这辈子难得的机会！\n\n服务专线：0800-66-8085\n\n或填表单\n\n<a href=\"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScUWzB8FOET4-8AXBHiU2WtdffgdI6Iby_07TUYs7qsUpf3Fg/viewform?usp=publish-editor\">https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScUWzB8FOET4-8AXBHiU2WtdffgdI6Iby_07TUYs7qsUpf3Fg/viewform?usp=publish-editor</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-1466.html\" title=\"〈观察〉AI浪潮来袭纺织厂不缺席远东新、新纤双轨并进布局\">〈观察〉AI浪潮来袭纺织厂不缺席远东新、新纤双轨并进布局</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5159.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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