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009828频创新高还能追?外资预告PCB未来三年迎最强成长期

2026-10-06 13:38:14 网络 阅读(1)

外资全面看多全球PCB与CCL产业未来三年展望,并认为在AI伺服器、高速交换器及ASIC加速器需求高速成长带动下,PCB与CCL产业正进入新一轮长周期成长阶段。法人表示,随着高阶材料、HDI制程以及高速交换器需求同步爆发,PCB与CCL供应链有望成为未来两至三年科技产业中最具成长潜力的族群之一。

009828频创新高还能追?外资预告PCB未来三年迎最强成长期

在AI资本支出持续上调、ASIC快速崛起,以及高速传输需求不断升温带动下,PCB与CCL产业景气循环已逐步从传统电子周期,转向由AI驱动的长期成长趋势。尽管多档CCL、ABF载板及材料供应商股价屡创新高,但在供不应求与规格升级双重利多支撑下,高阶PCB供应链未来三年仍有望持续受惠产业成长红利。

投资专家认为,PCB供应链涵盖载板、CCL、PCB制造及材料等多个次产业,近期族群轮动明显、涨势不一。与其费心猜测下一档领涨个股,不如透过ETF一次布局整体产业链。例如全台唯一以PCB产业为主题的ETF──中信台日韩PCB(009828-TW),聚焦台湾、日本与韩国PCB供应链龙头企业,由于三国合计市占率居全球领先地位,布局009828等同一次参与全球PCB产业成长契机。

外资分析指出,市场目前普遍聚焦于辉达(NVIDIA)GPU需求,但真正被低估的成长动能来自Google TPU供应链。随着Google持续加大AI基础建设投资,预估TPU出货量将由2026年的360万颗,大幅成长至2028年的1,200万颗,三年间增幅超过三倍。值得注意的是,新一代TPU导入更多逻辑晶片与HBM高频宽记忆体,使单颗TPU所需PCB与CCL用量及价值同步提升,进一步带动整体产业规模快速扩张。

在CCL领域方面,台光电被视为最重要的受惠股之一。外资指出,Google TPU、AWS Trainium及AMD MI500等ASIC平台皆需要高阶M8、M9材料,而台光电正是主要供应商之一。外资更预估,台光电EPS将由2026年的128.7元,大幅成长至2027年的262.9元,并在2028年进一步攀升至403.8元,因此将其目标价上调至10,000元。

此外,包括欣兴、金像电、台光电、台燿等具备高阶PCB与材料技术能力的业者,亦可望受惠于AI相关需求升温。法人分析,AI带动的不只是出货量成长,更重要的是产品规格持续升级。例如PCB层数已由过去20至30层提升至50层以上,而CCL也由M7逐步升级至M8、M9等高阶材料,每一次世代升级都将带动产品平均售价(ASP)明显提升。

外资在供应链调查中进一步发现,由于高阶CCL、铜箔、玻纤布及关键设备供给仍相对紧张,云端服务供应商(CSP)正积极与PCB及CCL厂商洽谈长期供货合约(LTA),甚至透过预付款方式提前锁定产能,情况类似过去记忆体产业景气高峰期间的供货模式。这不仅反映终端客户对未来需求具备高度信心,也有助于供应链提升资本支出意愿、强化获利能力及订单能见度。

中信台日韩PCB ETF经理人叶松炫表示,目前PCB与CCL产业正同时享有出货量增加、规格升级、产品涨价以及长约锁单四大利多,不仅2027、2028年仍有望维持高成长,供需吃紧的状况短期内也难以缓解。尤其AI伺服器、ASIC、交换器及光通讯设备同步升级,将持续带动整体供应链景气向上,PCB产业可望迎来新一轮黄金成长期。

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              "id": 58,
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