怕追高又怕崩盘？「老人与狗」价值回归？AI 绩优股低档与底部起涨清单！

上周博通 (AVGO-US) 因发布不够惊艳的财报与财测，导致股价大跌，并拖累费半指数表现。在美股持续创新高的过程中，市场不断地找寻泡沫的痕迹，或者获利了结的理由，但泡沫出现了吗？

由于担心 2000 年网路泡沫的重演，市场许多人拿 2000 年网路泡沫与现在的 AI 发展作比较：
－Netscape 于 1994 年 12 月 19 日发表，后 875 个交易日，那斯达克指数上涨 144.55%

－ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日发布后 875 个交易日 (2026 年 5 月 28 日)，那斯达克指数上涨 144.77%

－那斯达克指数在 2000 年网路泡沫期间上涨近 600%

更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－
LINE@ https://user225916.pse.is/money668
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投资朋友要注意的一点，股市上涨是价格，而企业获利则是价值，已故的德国投资大师安德烈 · 科斯托兰尼曾说过「老人与狗」的理论。老人是基本面，狗则是股价。不管狗跑前或者落后，最终都会回到老人旁边。而随着 AI 产业大涨，股价真的脱离市场基本面吗？

6/1「戴尔财报爆发，标普 500 获利加速！台股受惠名单大公开！？」已经跟投资朋友追踪标普 500 指数与 Mag 7 财报与财测表现，现在跟投资朋友追踪即将 IPO 的 Anthropico 营收表现，Anthropico 采购算力，而其营收就是下游企业与消费者是否愿意为 AI 买单。

Anthropico 营收与预估表现如下：
－Anthropic 的 2026 年 Q1 年化营收突破 300 亿美元

－市场预计第二季营收达 109 亿美元，并首次实现获利约 5.59 亿美元

－SemiAnalysis 预估 Anthropic 在 2026 年的年化收入超过 440 亿美元

－汇丰银行预估 Anthropic 到 2030 年营收可能达到 2,410 亿美元

1999 年底那斯达克指数周期性调整本益比高达 44 倍，甚至部分科技股本益比突破 175 倍。而目前那斯达克指数的预估本益比为 24.69 倍，且大型科技股的营收、获利与现金流都非常强劲。从本益比与个股基本面来看，目前的美股距离 2000 年网路泡沫的相对位置还很遥远，投资朋友不用担心，狗跑离老人太远。

之前提醒投资朋友，外资有大量的期货空单，慎防外资压低回补，但台股长多格局下，拉回就是切入的机会。相对保守的投资人可等中大型 AI 绩优股，积极的投资朋友可留意低价、相对低位阶或者集团股等，出现底部起涨与回测洗盘买点出现的个股与产业。

IC：创意 (3443-TW)、矽力 - KY(6415-TW)、力智 (6719-TW)、环球晶 (6488-TW)、富鼎 (8261-TW)、强茂 (2481-TW)

AI 绩优股：健策 (3653-TW)、贸联 - KY(3665-TW)、稳得 (6761-TW)、富世达 (6805-TW)

CCL：台光电 (2383-TW)、台燿 (6274-TW)、金居 (8358-TW)、荣科 (4989-TW)、德宏 (5475-TW)

个股详细解析：

力智 (6719-TW)：Vcore 主攻伺服器、资料中心及高阶显示卡，受惠 AI 伺服器功率密度提升。

富鼎 (8261-TW)：鸿海与国巨集团共同合作厂。具备 1200V 以上高压 MOSFET 技术。

强茂 (2481-TW)：布局伺服器与资料中心应用之 SBD 与 FRED 元件，并积极切入 SiC/GaN 领域。

稳得 (6761-TW)：电源大厂的 AI 伺服器 BBU 及超级电容测试。

健策 (3653-TW)：全球均热片龙头，主要客户涵盖超微、英特尔及辉达。GPU 水冷模组。

高力 (8996-TW)：「组件」到「整机柜系统」的完整液冷方案，包含：CDU、CDM / Manifold、RDHx、Sidecar 等。

金居 (8358-TW)：稳定供应高频高速铜箔厂。HVLP4 产品打入新一代 GPU 平台。

荣科 (4989-TW)：高阶 HVLP 产品切入 AI 伺服器与 800G 交换器供应链。

台股创新高的过程中，提醒投资朋友不要过于急躁的追涨，而台股拉回时，同样提醒投资朋友不要悲观。市场资金轮动，指数创新高时，可以留意回档的绩优股。而指数拉回时，则可留意抗跌与逆势上扬股。近期震荡相当剧烈，操作难度高，但台股多头可用之兵多，还有哪些底部起涨与回测洗盘买点出现的个股？欢迎加入 Line @

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 1890, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "怕追高又怕崩盘？「老人与狗」价值回归？AI 绩优股低档与底部起涨清单！", "shortTitle": "怕追高又怕崩盘？「老人与狗」价值回归？AI 绩优股低档与底部", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "上周博通 (AVGO-US) 因发布不够惊艳的财报与财测，导致股价大跌，并拖累费半指数表现。在美股持续创新高的过程中，市场不断地找寻泡沫的痕迹，或者获利了结的理由，但泡沫出现了吗？由于担心 2000 年网路泡沫的重演，市场许多人拿 2000 年网路泡沫与现在的 AI 发展作比较：－Netscape 于 1994 年 12 月 19 日发表，后 875 个交易日，那斯达克指数上涨 144.55% －ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日发布后 875 个交易日 (2026 年 5", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6485621/l/fbc1939d758376f08de333c93888c324.jpg", "content": "上周博通 (AVGO-US) 因发布不够惊艳的财报与财测，导致股价大跌，并拖累费半指数表现。在美股持续创新高的过程中，市场不断地找寻泡沫的痕迹，或者获利了结的理由，但泡沫出现了吗？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6485621/l/fbc1939d758376f08de333c93888c324.jpg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n由于担心 2000 年网路泡沫的重演，市场许多人拿 2000 年网路泡沫与现在的 AI 发展作比较： \n－Netscape 于 1994 年 12 月 19 日发表，后 875 个交易日，那斯达克指数上涨 144.55%\n\n－ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日发布后 875 个交易日 (2026 年 5 月 28 日)，那斯达克指数上涨 144.77%\n\n－那斯达克指数在 2000 年网路泡沫期间上涨近 600%\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n投资朋友要注意的一点，股市上涨是价格，而企业获利则是价值，已故的德国投资大师安德烈 · 科斯托兰尼曾说过「老人与狗」的理论。老人是基本面，狗则是股价。不管狗跑前或者落后，最终都会回到老人旁边。而随着 AI 产业大涨，股价真的脱离市场基本面吗？\n\n6/1「戴尔财报爆发，标普 500 获利加速！台股受惠名单大公开！？」已经跟投资朋友追踪标普 500 指数与 Mag 7 财报与财测表现，现在跟投资朋友追踪即将 IPO 的 Anthropico 营收表现，Anthropico 采购算力，而其营收就是下游企业与消费者是否愿意为 AI 买单。\n\nAnthropico 营收与预估表现如下： \n－Anthropic 的 2026 年 Q1 年化营收突破 300 亿美元\n\n－市场预计第二季营收达 109 亿美元，并首次实现获利约 5.59 亿美元\n\n－SemiAnalysis 预估 Anthropic 在 2026 年的年化收入超过 440 亿美元\n\n－汇丰银行预估 Anthropic 到 2030 年营收可能达到 2,410 亿美元\n\n1999 年底那斯达克指数周期性调整本益比高达 44 倍，甚至部分科技股本益比突破 175 倍。而目前那斯达克指数的预估本益比为 24.69 倍，且大型科技股的营收、获利与现金流都非常强劲。从本益比与个股基本面来看，目前的美股距离 2000 年网路泡沫的相对位置还很遥远，投资朋友不用担心，狗跑离老人太远。\n\n之前提醒投资朋友，外资有大量的期货空单，慎防外资压低回补，但台股长多格局下，拉回就是切入的机会。相对保守的投资人可等中大型 AI 绩优股，积极的投资朋友可留意低价、相对低位阶或者集团股等，出现底部起涨与回测洗盘买点出现的个股与产业。\n\nIC：创意 (3443-TW)、矽力 - KY(6415-TW)、力智 (6719-TW)、环球晶 (6488-TW)、富鼎 (8261-TW)、强茂 (2481-TW)\n\nAI 绩优股：健策 (3653-TW)、贸联 - KY(3665-TW)、稳得 (6761-TW)、富世达 (6805-TW)\n\nCCL：台光电 (2383-TW)、台燿 (6274-TW)、金居 (8358-TW)、荣科 (4989-TW)、德宏 (5475-TW)\n\n个股详细解析：\n\n力智 (6719-TW)：Vcore 主攻伺服器、资料中心及高阶显示卡，受惠 AI 伺服器功率密度提升。\n\n富鼎 (8261-TW)：鸿海与国巨集团共同合作厂。具备 1200V 以上高压 MOSFET 技术。\n\n强茂 (2481-TW)：布局伺服器与资料中心应用之 SBD 与 FRED 元件，并积极切入 SiC/GaN 领域。\n\n稳得 (6761-TW)：电源大厂的 AI 伺服器 BBU 及超级电容测试。\n\n健策 (3653-TW)：全球均热片龙头，主要客户涵盖超微、英特尔及辉达。GPU 水冷模组。\n\n高力 (8996-TW)：「组件」到「整机柜系统」的完整液冷方案，包含：CDU、CDM / Manifold、RDHx、Sidecar 等。\n\n金居 (8358-TW)：稳定供应高频高速铜箔厂。HVLP4 产品打入新一代 GPU 平台。\n\n荣科 (4989-TW)：高阶 HVLP 产品切入 AI 伺服器与 800G 交换器供应链。\n\n台股创新高的过程中，提醒投资朋友不要过于急躁的追涨，而台股拉回时，同样提醒投资朋友不要悲观。市场资金轮动，指数创新高时，可以留意回档的绩优股。而指数拉回时，则可留意抗跌与逆势上扬股。近期震荡相当剧烈，操作难度高，但台股多头可用之兵多，还有哪些底部起涨与回测洗盘买点出现的个股？欢迎加入 Line @\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！ \n频道连结：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a> \n务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5409.html\" title=\"继电器厂松川精密获利走强中 2元股息订7/24除息\">继电器厂松川精密获利走强中 2元股息订7/24除息</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14568.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 稳懋(3105)8月营收19.37亿元年增率高达30.55％\">营收速报 - 稳懋(3105)8月营收19.37亿元年增率高达30.55％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11600.html\" 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