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台光电(2383)、联茂(6213)、台燿(6274) 谁最会赚?高阶CCL涨价与获利动能一次看!

2026-10-14 17:51:27 网络 阅读(1)

《优分析产业资料库》同业比较

随着AI伺服器运算架构升级,以及800G与1.6T高阶交换器加速渗透,三雄同处AI高阶CCL的价涨期,但赚钱的层次不同:台光电(2383-TW)靠规格领先(M9、载板)拉开差距。台燿(6274-TW)则以M7/M8 最凌厉涨幅卡位交换器与ASIC供应链。联茂(6213-TW)靠中低阶涨价杠杆冲获利弹性。本文带大家一次看三家产品布局。

CCL、高阶铜箔、玻纤布 引发的结构性涨价周期

根据《优分析产业资料库》资料,这波涨价动能主要来自两大推手:一是AI伺服器与ASIC专案对极低介电损耗材料(如M7、M8、M9)的需求呈现爆发式成长;二是上游关键原料包括HVLP高阶铜箔与电子级玻纤布(E-glass)出现严重料源瓶颈。

受惠终端需求强劲,加上原料成本上升,厂商透过调涨售价反映成本,带动平均售价(ASP)与毛利率提高。

台光电:规格世代领先,M9与载板CCL独霸高阶市场

台光电作为全球CCL龙头,高速CCL市占 38.6%(2025 年),高阶HDI材料市占70%以上、SLP材料90%以上。强项在技术领先与产能规模,是Nvidia、Google、AWS的主要供应商。

最赚钱的产品线为M9规格材料与载板CCL。其中法人估M9毛利率40%以上,M9已于2026年下半年进入量产,第三季随GPU客户放量。载板CCL预计2027年初出货,预估毛利率40~50%以上。

接单能见度已延伸至2027年、部分长约产能未来两年接近全数售罄。台光电同时握有原料配额与技术领先,缺货对它是「涨价+份额」双红利。预期第四季不排除针对部分产品再次调涨,M6以下调幅较大。

台燿:卡位800G交换器与ASIC,高阶报价涨幅最凌厉

台燿的M7+ 高速CCL市占20%以上。强项是在800G、1.6T 交换器与ASIC专案。

最具获利潜力的产品线为M7、M8高阶材料,主要对应高速交换器与ASIC需求,M7以上高阶产品营收占比于2026年第二季达39%,预估下半年升至40%~50%。随着ASIC专案(AWS Trainium 3)自2026年第二季放量,加上泰国厂新产能提前开出,预计2027年高阶产品营收占比有望超过50%。

受惠于高阶交换器需求与产品涨价,台燿2026年第二季毛利率升至29.7%。报价方面,台燿于2026年4月底调涨M7、M8高阶产品价格约40%,中低阶产品则调涨10%至20%,第二季整体涨幅约30%。预期2026年下半年,每季仍有10%至15%的调涨空间。

联茂:通用伺服器龙头,中低阶涨价展现获利杠杆弹性

联茂为国内产能第一大CCL厂,优势落在一般型(通用)伺服器市场,AMD平台市占逾6成、Intel约3~4成。强项在通用伺服器换代升级(PCIe Gen 6)。

联茂最赚钱的产品线集中在M7与M8/M9高阶材料。M7材料的毛利率较M6高出3~5个百分点,未来的M9产品毛利率更有机会上看50%。虽然联茂的高阶AI比重低于台光电,但由于其过往产品结构偏向中低阶,当整体产业启动涨价时,中低阶材料涨价带来的获利改善杠杆最为显著。

2026年4月至5月累计涨幅约20%,第二季单季涨幅达30%。随后第三季与第四季预计每季续涨15%~20%,且报价机制已由过往的按季协商改为按月调整。

CCL缺料限制出货,玻纤布、高阶铜箔、同业扩厂一起看

目前CCL三雄面临的共同挑战并非订单不足,而是上游原料供应链陷入瓶颈,稼动率主要卡在E-glass玻纤布与HVLP4铜箔。

整体来看,台光电凭借长约锁定原料配额,受惠最为扎实;而台燿与联茂的稼动率目前受限于70%~75%。主要受限瓶颈和同业扩产资讯,整理如下:

  • 玻纤布瓶颈:日商日东纺(Nittobo)之T-Glass产线目前持续满载,其产能扩充预计要到2028年度才能提升至2025年度的3倍;中国巨石与泰山玻纤之新产能,则预计于2026年第四季至2027年第一季陆续开出。

  • 高阶铜箔瓶颈:三井金属HVLP产能排单已一路排至2030年后,依据官方扩产计划,第一阶段预计于2028年将VSP月产能提升至1,200吨,第二阶段于2030年扩增至1,400吨;后续马来西亚新厂预计于2031年起投产,并计划在2033年将VSP月产能一步扩大至2,600吨。

  • 同业扩产动态:南韩斗山集团规划投资9,700亿韩元扩产,配合生益科技与建滔集团同步扩充产能,相关新产能多集中于2028年下半年释出。

本波获利跳升主因之一是涨价,一旦料源松动、同业扩产开出,支撑可能会松动。关注2027年是否成为转折点,成长动能是否由「涨价」转向「规格升级与出货放量」。

※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载,原文出处:原文连结
※ 免责声明:文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考,并非投资建议,投资人应独立判断,审慎评估风险。

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    "content": "<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6630305/o/36c9d193515b6d1bcc93a02be750b2b2.jpg\" alt=\"《优分析产业资料库》同业比较\" /><p data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">随着AI伺服器运算架构升级,以及800G与1.6T高阶交换器加速渗透,三雄同处AI高阶CCL的价涨期,但赚钱的层次不同:台光电(2383-TW)靠规格领先(M9、载板)拉开差距。台燿(6274-TW)则以M7/M8 最凌厉涨幅卡位交换器与ASIC供应链。联茂(6213-TW)靠中低阶涨价杠杆冲获利弹性。本文带大家一次看三家产品布局。</p>\n<h2 data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">CCL、高阶铜箔、玻纤布 引发的结构性涨价周期</h2>\n<p>根据《优分析产业资料库》资料,这波涨价动能主要来自两大推手:一是AI伺服器与ASIC专案对极低介电损耗材料(如M7、M8、M9)的需求呈现爆发式成长;二是上游关键原料包括HVLP高阶铜箔与电子级玻纤布(E-glass)出现严重料源瓶颈。</p>\n<p>受惠终端需求强劲,加上原料成本上升,厂商透过调涨售价反映成本,带动平均售价(ASP)与毛利率提高。</p>\n<h2>台光电:规格世代领先,M9与载板CCL独霸高阶市场</h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"19\">台光电作为全球CCL龙头,高速CCL市占 38.6%(2025 年),高阶HDI材料市占70%以上、SLP材料90%以上。强项在技术领先与产能规模,是Nvidia、Google、AWS的主要供应商。</p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">最赚钱的产品线为M9规格材料与载板CCL。其中法人估M9毛利率40%以上,M9已于2026年下半年进入量产,第三季随GPU客户放量。载板CCL预计2027年初出货,预估毛利率40~50%以上。</p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20\">接单能见度已延伸至2027年、部分长约产能未来两年接近全数售罄。台光电同时握有原料配额与技术领先,缺货对它是「涨价+份额」双红利。预期第四季不排除针对部分产品再次调涨,M6以下调幅较大。</p>\n<h2>台燿:卡位800G交换器与ASIC,高阶报价涨幅最凌厉</h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"23\">台燿的M7+ 高速CCL市占20%以上。强项是在800G、1.6T 交换器与ASIC专案。</p>\n<p data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">最具获利潜力的产品线为M7、M8高阶材料,主要对应高速交换器与ASIC需求,M7以上高阶产品营收占比于2026年第二季达39%,预估下半年升至40%~50%。随着ASIC专案(AWS Trainium 3)自2026年第二季放量,加上泰国厂新产能提前开出,预计2027年高阶产品营收占比有望超过50%。</p>\n<p>受惠于高阶交换器需求与产品涨价,台燿2026年第二季毛利率升至29.7%。报价方面,台燿于2026年4月底调涨M7、M8高阶产品价格约40%,中低阶产品则调涨10%至20%,第二季整体涨幅约30%。预期2026年下半年,每季仍有10%至15%的调涨空间。</p>\n<h2>联茂:通用伺服器龙头,中低阶涨价展现获利杠杆弹性</h2>\n<p id=\"p-rc_8004a969ce5aa3bb-61\" data-path-to-node=\"21\">联茂为国内产能第一大CCL厂,优势落在一般型(通用)伺服器市场,AMD平台市占逾6成、Intel约3~4成。强项在通用伺服器换代升级(PCIe Gen 6)。</p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"22\">联茂最赚钱的产品线集中在M7与M8/M9高阶材料。M7材料的毛利率较M6高出3~5个百分点,未来的M9产品毛利率更有机会上看50%。虽然联茂的高阶AI比重低于台光电,但由于其过往产品结构偏向中低阶,当整体产业启动涨价时,中低阶材料涨价带来的获利改善杠杆最为显著。</p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"22\">2026年4月至5月累计涨幅约20%,第二季单季涨幅达30%。随后第三季与第四季预计每季续涨15%~20%,且报价机制已由过往的按季协商改为按月调整。</p>\n<h2 data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">CCL缺料限制出货,玻纤布、高阶铜箔、同业扩厂一起看</h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"19\">目前CCL三雄面临的共同挑战并非订单不足,而是上游原料供应链陷入瓶颈,稼动率主要卡在E-glass玻纤布与HVLP4铜箔。</p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"19\">整体来看,台光电凭借长约锁定原料配额,受惠最为扎实;而台燿与联茂的稼动率目前受限于70%~75%。主要受限瓶颈和同业扩产资讯,整理如下:</p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"20\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20,0,0\">玻纤布瓶颈:日商日东纺(Nittobo)之T-Glass产线目前持续满载,其产能扩充预计要到2028年度才能提升至2025年度的3倍;中国巨石与泰山玻纤之新产能,则预计于2026年第四季至2027年第一季陆续开出。</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20,1,0\">高阶铜箔瓶颈:三井金属HVLP产能排单已一路排至2030年后,依据官方扩产计划,第一阶段预计于2028年将VSP月产能提升至1,200吨,第二阶段于2030年扩增至1,400吨;后续马来西亚新厂预计于2031年起投产,并计划在2033年将VSP月产能一步扩大至2,600吨。</p>\n</li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"20,2,0\">同业扩产动态:南韩斗山集团规划投资9,700亿韩元扩产,配合生益科技与建滔集团同步扩充产能,相关新产能多集中于2028年下半年释出。</p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>本波获利跳升主因之一是涨价,一旦料源松动、同业扩产开出,支撑可能会松动。关注2027年是否成为转折点,成长动能是否由「涨价」转向「规格升级与出货放量」。</p><p>※ 本文经「优分析」授权转载,原文出处:<a style=\"color:#A9A9A9\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https://uanalyze.com.tw/articles/4744257063\">原文连结</a>\n            <br>※ 免责声明:文中所提的个股、基金、期货商品内容仅供参考,并非投资建议,投资人应独立判断,审慎评估风险。</p>\n            <p></p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-19326.html\" title=\"〈电子五哥营收〉英业达伺服器表现亮眼 Q3营收2720亿元年增逾5成创单季高\">〈电子五哥营收〉英业达伺服器表现亮眼 Q3营收2720亿元年增逾5成创单季高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-20037.html\" title=\"正文携手高通、gFiber 将边缘AI技术导入Wi-Fi 8宽频闸道器\">正文携手高通、gFiber 将边缘AI技术导入Wi-Fi 8宽频闸道器</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-590.html\" title=\"〈台股盘后〉天量天价冲破4万4 台积电软脚跌破2300元 翻黑收跌119点\">〈台股盘后〉天量天价冲破4万4 台积电软脚跌破2300元 翻黑收跌119点</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-3572.html\" title=\"〈房产〉双贷族疯炒股每月新增逾2000人 专家示警开多重高杠杆追高风险增\">〈房产〉双贷族疯炒股每月新增逾2000人 专家示警开多重高杠杆追高风险增</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10576.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 安普新(6743)7月营收7.92亿元年增率高达50.24%\">营收速报  - 安普新(6743)7月营收7.92亿元年增率高达50.24%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9383.html\" title=\"赖清德:「长照3.0」今年起将失能身心障碍者纳入服务对象\">赖清德:「长照3.0」今年起将失能身心障碍者纳入服务对象</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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