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〈房产〉房市买气降温牵动人口移动 台中、桃园等都会区迁入人口下滑

2026-10-15 17:50:01 网络 阅读(2)

房市买气冷,连带人口移居也受牵连,房仲业者汇整内政部户政司统计资料显示,过去被视为人口移居热区的桃园市、台中市,今年净迁入人口都出现减少;反观台北市,虽仍是全台净迁出人口最多的县市,但「脱北」状况也有所收敛。

〈房产〉房市买气降温牵动人口移动 台中、桃园等都会区迁入人口下滑

大家房屋企划研究室公关襄理赖志昶分析,近期受央行信用管制及银行房贷审核趋严影响,房市买气受限,使全台人口迁徙状况出现明显变化。

据内政部统计,全台2026年1-9月净迁出6517人,相较去年同期净迁出1万2431人,减少5914人;观察六都状况,其中桃园市今年1-9月净迁入7179人,为全台最多,台中市以5204人居全台第二;至于台北市、高雄市则分别净迁出1万3604及2365人,其中北市迁出人口已相当于台北小巨蛋可收纳的观众量。

赖志昶认为,过去人口迁徙与房市买气息息相关,尤其桃园、台中此类重划区议题较多区域,又有产业议题支撑,往往带动人口集中,不过受央行信用管制与银行贷款限制冲击,使民众购屋意愿大幅下降,进而可能降低区域人口移居数据;台北市1-9月净迁出人口虽居全台之冠,不过相较去年同期,流出人口已缓和,显示房市买气趋缓,也减少脱北者迁徙速度;高雄市过去则受惠于产业与建设题材,带动房价上涨,但市场趋冷,购屋人追价能力有限,加上部分人口因就业机会、薪资等因素而移居,使得人口持续流出。

至于全台 六都以外县市,观察数据,以新竹县表现最为突出,今年至9月净迁入2143人,为六都以外人口净迁入最多县市;另一方面,彰化县则以净迁出5333人,仅次于北市居全台第二。赖志昶分析,新竹县受惠于半导体产业链支撑,带动周边区域住宅需求,即使近年房价攀升,仍有一定就业人口支撑市场;彰化县迁出人口较多,主因是与台中生活圈高度重叠,部分人口可能因就业、就学等因素纷纷移往邻近都会区。

住商不动产企划研究室执行总监徐佳馨提醒,人口迁移人数,向来是观察区域住宅需求的重要指标,但也容易受就业、就学及税务政策等因素影响,未必代表实际购屋需求的增减;未来购屋族除观察人口移入状况外,更应留意区域产业就业机会与住宅供给量,特别是部分高度仰赖外来人口支撑的新兴重划区,若未来移居动能减弱,但大量新屋仍陆续完工交屋,恐面临供给过剩压力,购屋人应审慎评估区域发展,避免过度追逐过去的人口成长热区。


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