别被历史级提款吓傻！外资单日疯砍三千亿回测季线，谁在非理性杀盘中悄悄卡位？

外资单日狂卖创下历史纪录，恐慌情绪席卷市场，但量化数据回测却揭示截然不同的反弹胜率，当指数剧烈震荡回测关键季线，散户犹豫不决之际，市场资金早已锁定供需紧缺的刚性缺口，悄悄展开下一波大行情的长线卡位。

〈外资史上最大卖超后台股止跌反弹！量化统计早已透露关键讯号〉
台股今天开高震荡，盘中一度大涨逾500点，最高来到47520.60点，终场上涨141.39点，成交金额9359.59亿元，约持平月均量水准，台积电(2330-TW)昨日法说会虽未直接带动指数强攻，但半导体权值股已陆续浮现低档承接与初步止稳迹象，昨日外资单日卖超高达3025.55亿元创下历史纪录，但根据智霖老师团队量化模型对历史极端卖超后的回测统计，隔日上涨机率显著提高，后续一周、一个月乃至一季度的正报酬机率也相当可观，今天指数也如期展现反弹韧性，随着大盘回落至季线附近，正是重新检视低估值核心成长股的重要时机。

〈反弹别急着追！融资只减51亿，持股水位这样控管才是关键〉
不过指数反弹不代表筹码风险已经解除，昨日大盘重挫1655.96点，集中市场融资余额却仅减少51.41亿元，显示散户筹码尚未充分清洗，后续仍存在震荡整理压力，新台币汇率持续走贬，外资资金流向短期依旧偏向负面，即使个股估值折价空间逐渐浮现，也不能因此忽略风险，整体持股水位必须维持中性控管，采取逢低分批布局，而非一次重押，在筹码尚未彻底沉淀之前，保留资金弹性，才能掌握后续真正的进攻机会。

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APP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：https://lihi.cc/zwrii

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趁今日盘中再度拉回，我们果断针对具备产业能见度与安全边际的族群逢低布局，重点锁定半导体封测、AI光交换器及载板设备三大方向，AI光交换器指标大厂经历本波系统性修正，股价回测年线附近，技术面与估值面同步浮现左侧布局契机；具备升级利基的载板设备厂，虽然短线跟随大盘震荡，但先进封装载板长期扩产趋势并未改变，回档反而提供更具吸引力的评价空间。

至于先进封测族群，台积电(2330-TW)法说会已明确指出后段先进封装产能紧缺，正积极扩产满足客户需求，当高阶封装与测试需求持续扩大，专业封测供应链将有机会承接订单外溢商机，这就是持续看好产业中长线成长的核心逻辑，资本市场的超额报酬，往往诞生于非理性错杀的时刻，不是盲目猜底，而是在估值合理、产业趋势明确时，敢于逆势分批出手，同时严守资金纪律，才能为下一波主升段提前做好准备，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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