光通讯水很深 !? 大立光跨足CPO真能变万金股？美巨头爆「缺货率70%」！法人：不只台积电，还有这几档吃不完！

2026-10-17 21:29:16 网络阅读（2）
光学镜头龙头大立光(3008-TW)日前召开法说会，董事长林恩平丢下一颗震撼弹：旗下光纤阵列（FA）已顺利通过全球大客户验证，预计最快明年正式放量生产！
(图片来源:优分析产业资料库)
消息一出，外资高盛随即出具震撼报告，将大立光目标价狂升至不可思议的 11,000 元，「万金股」传奇似乎近在眼前。然而，在同一场法说会上，当被问及面板厂试图以「Micro LED 搭配多模光纤」抢进共同封装光学（CPO）技术时，林恩平却冷冷抛出一句「不太可能成真、不看好」，直接引发友达、群创及光通讯族群上诠等个股血流成河，被股民调侃为「别人的法会」。
CPO（共同封装光学）到底在夯什么？大立光凭什么敢抢进？光通讯这块大饼究竟谁是赢家？
前资深法人操盘手沈万钧（万钧哥）在优分析节目《股民想知道》中直言：「光通讯是有史以来最容易被误解、也最容易被误导的产业！市场目前只看到冰山一角，美国光通讯巨头甚至已经爆出『70% 的极端缺货率』，这场刚要爆发的世纪商机，根本不是一两家厂商吃得完的！」
一、光通讯水有多深？市场鸡同鸭讲的「三大误区」

为什么说光通讯产业「水很深」？沈万钧指出，就连许多一般法人研究员，如果不够深入，都很容易在光通讯领域「鸡同鸭讲」：
光模块（Transceiver）与 CPO 傻傻分不清：光模块是目前伺服器机柜之间（Server to Server）外接的可插拔光学元件；而 CPO 则是把光学元件直接封装到晶片身边，技术难度完全不在同一个量级。
大 CPO（板级）与晶片端 CPO：光通讯有分 Scale out（机柜间扩展）、Scale up（机柜内扩展）以及最极致的 Scale in（晶片与晶片间）。
电传输撞墙，光进铜退是物理必然：AI 算力爆发后，铜线传输遭遇了无法突破的「物理极限」——讯号衰减严重（Loss）、传输延迟以及极其恐怖的废热。改用光导传输讯号，是全世界半导体与 AI 巨头不可逆的共同终局。
林恩平看衰 Micro LED 方案，并不代表面板厂在说谎，而是光学在不同场景本来就有不同技术路径与取舍。但这场技术辩论恰恰证明了一件事：所有科技巨头都急疯了，不计代价想用光来解决 AI 的传输与散热瓶颈！
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