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台股暴跌3000点是危险还是机会?ASML与台积电指引半导体大趋势,必看『关键供应链』名单!

2026-10-19 09:23:34 网络 阅读(1)

ASML上周公布财报与财测,这边为投资朋友重点整理如下:

台股暴跌3000点是危险还是机会?ASML与台积电指引半导体大趋势,必看『关键供应链』名单!

1.获利能力超预期,全面调升2026指引

Q3数据超预期:Q3毛利率高达57.5%(预期56.1%)、EPS 12.95欧元(预期的 10.7 欧元)

Q4预测优于预期:Q4营收预测142~152亿欧元(预期139.7亿欧元)、Q4毛利率高达57%(预期56.4%)

2026 全年展望上修:营收区间上移至440~450亿欧元(预期437.8亿欧元);全年毛利率上修至56%(预期54.9%)

2.订单能见度直达2030年,产能供不应求

产能大扩张:2027年及2028年EUV产能将连续两年每年提升30%

定价红利将至:与主要客户的定价谈判已完成,部分光刻机产品涨价

3. 三大巨头 High NA 导入时程确立

英特尔:目前已持续运行中

三星:将于 2028 年使用 High NA

台积电:将于2030年前后将 High NA 导入 HVM,并同步引进12吋光罩

更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在-

LINE@ https://user225916.pse.is/money668

频道连结https://www.youtube.com/@money66868

台积电法说会上,基本面也如同ASML一样强劲成长,预估第 4 季美元营收介于 523 亿至 543 亿美元,全年美元营收成长目标由略高于40%上修至约44%。2 奈米量产进展顺利,并规划3奈米扩产。2026年资本支出维持600亿至640亿美元的规划,并预期2026至2028年的资本支出将较过去三年显著成长。

费半指数十月份偏向弱势的表现,影响台股表现,但美光、ASML与台积电不管财报与财测都维持高成长,甚至原本的高的扩产计划还不足已满足市场需求。投资朋友可留意ASML及台积电相关供应链。另外,先进制程以外,先进封装同样供不应求,可留意封测厂、封测材料(矽中介层、玻璃基板)、载板等。下面提供相关供应链绩优股给投资朋友参考。

台股十月份上半场,自高点回测逾3000点,但依然相对国际股市抗跌,加权指数目标5万点以上,回测就是新的进场机会,现在该关注那些产业?有哪些个股在低基期?不知如何进场吗?让我帮助你,加入我的行列,可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】

有最新优惠活动!

AI供应链绩优股如下:

半导体供应链:帆宣(6196-TW)、瑞耘(6532-TW)、新应材(4749-TW)、升阳半(8028-TW)、中砂(1560-TW)、崇越(5434-TW)、华立(3010-TW)

先进封装:日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)、联电(2303-TW)、世界(5347-TW)、群创(3481-TW)、友达(2409-TW)

PCB:欣兴(3037-TW)、景硕(3189-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)、联茂(6213-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)、台玻(1802-TW)、德宏(5475-TW)

更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→

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LINE@ID:@money668 (@要记得加)

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文章来源:摩尔投顾-叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险

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