利率影响如期扩散中，银行股、罗素2000先跌先止跌

利率的传导按照顺序，目前是走补跌
先前探讨利率持续飙涨，对股市到底有没有影响，笔者的答案是有，从台股投资人常忽视的非电子股或占比高的指数中，银行类股、罗素2000、道琼指数都在9月惨跌一波，因此当时总结有2条传导路径，1.透过房贷传导已先行反映在上述类股，2.透过AI公司之公司债传导，将在财报季被检视!目前的行情中，后者的传导路径，尤其是CoreWeave等AI融资问题的放大解读，即是血淋淋案例，在这些公司的公司债领先下跌下，也造成相关标的股价的补跌。

先跌先修正的道琼/金融股，随利率止稳是不幸中大幸
银行股止跌有余但上涨亦有反压:

以非高位阶、提前估值修正过的姿态迎战财报法说，10/13、14开启美股财报季的银行股大多都仍能缴出Double beat表现，不过不同业务的强弱明显分歧，银行部门NII大多续创高，不过NIM正在缩窄，在利率不确定性、原物料涨跌来回动荡下，债券、原物料交易收入异常疲弱，同时承销业务也因放缓表现不佳，仅股市交易续旺。

实际银行股财报法说的内容，与延伸分析
就以龙头摩根大通来举例，基本上很能体现整体银行股现况，单季EPS 3年来首次低于预期(miss)，相关费用上升、9月市场修正的交易放缓是主因。而本季存款成本季增 7 bps，NIM小幅下滑，不过核心的存放款业务展望仍稳，展望2026全年虽费用1086 亿美元高于预期6亿，不过NII 1062 亿美元仍高于预期7亿。 2027 年NII预期1070 亿美元，明显高于预期的 1045 亿美元，存放款端的表现，银行看好明年能维持高档表现。

银行高层与法说透露的资讯: 分歧、经济热伴随通膨，高度信用扩张伴随风
◆经济整体仍热，通膨下消费仍具韧性，就算不同产业可能景气冷热交杂，但大行看得是整体，被排挤也无可奈何。贷款和存款增长仍在稳步推进
◆没有见到立即性的违约风险
三大银行均报告不良贷款有所减少，表明消费者和企业目前仍能维持正常还款
◆对总体经济展望保持警惕与担忧，进行风险控管
乌克兰及中东地区等地缘政治的影响持续，富国银行和花旗集团已于本季度提高了信贷备抵呆帐，摩根大通并没有，不过预期其他银行会陆续跟进

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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