台股利空钝化怎么布局？看懂结算后筹码指标，轻松掌握选股条件

昨日美伊地缘冲突传出协议曙光，油价回落带动美股强势反弹，尽管谈判仍有变数，行情却未明显回吐，反映市场极度悲观下的利空钝化现象。随着台股顺势展开反弹，后续资金回流能否延续，以及台指期结算后的筹码与融资变化，将成为判断反弹力道与后续行情方向的重要关键。

〈台股利空钝化讯号浮现，台指期结算后留意筹码变化〉

昨日美股受到美伊地缘冲突传出有望达成协议激励，原油价格回落带动指数强势反弹，尽管随后传出谈判仍在进行，局势并未实质转趋乐观，美股却没有明显拉回。这充分反映市场情绪已经陷入极度悲观，行情开始出现利空钝化、积极反映利多的现象。今日台股顺势强弹，早盘一度大涨超过900点，终场收在46887.77点，成交值8331.91亿元。虽然量能仍低于月均量，但配合技术面回测季线支撑，以及选择权46000点防线，大盘具备向上挑战月线的机会。筹码面方面，外资终止连续10个交易日卖超，三大法人合计小幅买超5.68亿元，显示短线卖压略有缓和，但资金回补力道仍待观察。从今日台指期结算与筹码结构来看，台股多头趋势还在，但短线筹码过热仍须提防震荡洗盘。

〈台股强弹留下影线，AI外销订单创高支撑后市〉

美中不足的是，今日台股盘中拉擡过程频频遭遇上方短线解套卖压，导致加权指数涨势收敛并留下上影线，亚股指标韩股午盘涨幅也同步缩小。不过，考量韩股已在此区间横盘筑底约一周，仍有利于短线止跌讯号逐步确立。另一方面，新台币汇率虽然止贬转升，但后续外资回流与资金动能的延续性，仍是观察台股反弹力道的重要指标。回归产业基本面，最新公布的9月外销订单再创单月历史新高，扎实印证智霖老师先前再三强调的观点：台湾AI产业长线需求持续扩张，基本面成长大方向丝毫未变，短线市场震荡并未改变AI供应链的长期发展趋势。

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APP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：https://lihi.cc/zwrii

〈台股反弹主流浮现，封测双雄、光铜传输接棒可期〉

今日台股大盘虽遭遇短线解套卖压、呈现洗盘震荡，但盘面资金流向却给出未来反弹主流的指引。封测指标京元电子(2449-TW)早盘表现平淡，盘中却一路震荡走高，终场大涨约7%、收在高点；同族群力成(6239-TW)也有买盘积极进驻，稳健收于全日高档。在AI先进封装产能供不应求的外溢效应下，封测双雄已展现领涨气势，成为后续反弹行情的领头羊目标。另一方面，相对低基期的光、铜传输概念股，包括网通光交换器指标智邦(2345-TW)与高阶连接线束龙头贸联-KY(3665-TW)，受惠AI伺服器及资料中心高速传输需求持续扩张，长线基本面依然强劲。这类具备产业刚性需求的绩优权值股，若回测年线支撑、出现估值折价，值得从容逢低分批布局。面对台股反弹与产业轮动，投资人应积极检视高档套牢持股，适度调整资金配置，掌握AI新主流的布局先机，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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