46,000点守不住？AI永动机危机？年底前布局还是逃命？

市场传出台积电CoWoS将调涨1至2成，主要的原因在于AI晶片(GPU、CPU、ASIC)需求增加，并且设备交期从3-6个月延长至6-8个月，导致CoWoS产能难以扩充。加上，之前台积电通知客户晶圆代工整体明年1月起涨价3-6%，其中7奈米以下最高涨幅达10%。

价格调涨能稳定台积电毛利率，加上营收维持高成长，台积电不只是今年Q4，2027年获利也将维持高速的成长。依照投资机构对于2027年全年台积电EPS预估，台积电的远期本益比仅15-16倍。

十月份国际AI股遭到调节，台股也受到影响，但台积电的远期本益比低，2400元以下空间有限，将成为台股的定海神针。

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Anthropic于10月26日正式向美国SEC递交IPO申报文件，预计股票代号为「ANT」在那斯达克挂牌上市。市场预估其IPO目标估值高达1.5兆至2兆美元。同时间博通与美国银行、黑石集团、花旗集团与摩根士丹利等正式宣布，一项高达630亿美元的大型融资案，采用博通的XPU AI 加速器与网路设备，再以租赁方式提供给 Anthropic，用以支持Anthropic的算力与晶片部署。

AI股之间的交叉持股或融资的商业循环，被市场戏称为『AI永动机』，这是市场担忧AI泡沫化的重要关键原因之一，因此，市场关注最下游应用端Anthropic与OpenAI的营收成长速度，而AI产业链财务面相对弱势的新创/独立云端服务商则遭到市场调节，CoreWeave(CRWV-US)今年跌约30%；甲骨文(ORCL-US) 今年跌约35%；IREN(IREN-US)今年跌约40%。

市场不乏有悲观言论与情绪，并影响到部分产业个股，甚至大到大盘指数与全球指数的表现。股市为领先指标，难道AI产业将于2027年迎来反转？但从AI产业链的消息来看，订单或扩产计划等，已经看到2028年，甚至2030年。2027年出现反转的机率非常低，因此，悲观导致的市场拉回，就成为投资朋友进场的好机会。

台股今日开高之后拉回，不但未站稳季线，甚至再度下探，投资朋友这时候要保持冷静，不要轻易杀低，反而利用拉回进行低接与换股。先进封装、载板与大型AI绩优股近期来到相对低档位阶附近，是投资朋友可留意的标的。

台股还在4,6000点附近，但许多个股跌幅超过2成以上，操作难度一点也不低，近期很多投资朋友都因此重伤。

不知如何进场？不知如何换股？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】有最新优惠活动！

AI供应链绩优股如下：

先进封装：台积电(2303-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)、力成(6239-TW)、友达(2409-TW)、合晶(6182-TW)

ABF：欣兴(3037-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、景硕(3189-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)

AI绩优股：鸿海(2317-TW)、广达(2382-TW)、台达电(2308-TW)、奇𬭎(3017-TW)、双鸿(3324-TW)、国巨(2327-TW)、南亚科(2408-TW)、力积电(6770-TW)

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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