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【旺宏法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/27

2026-10-27 21:02:19 网络 阅读(1)

一、2026 年第三季财务与营运详情

【旺宏法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/27

财务表现:

营收与获利: 第三季营收 242 亿元,季增 27%,较去年同期的 82 亿元成长近 3 倍,创历史新高。毛利率 70.5%,前一季为 64.4%;毛利中含存货回转利益约 7,500 万元。营业费用 41 亿元,季增 24%,增加的部分主要是员工酬劳提列。

营业利益 129 亿元,营业利益率 53.4%,季增 44%,去年同期为亏损。税后净利 109.5 亿元,季增 42%。EPS 5.52 元,前一季为 3.91 元。EBITDA 143 亿元,EBITDA 率 59%。

前三季累计: 营收 538 亿元,年增 155%,已超过 2021 年全年 505 亿元的历史纪录。毛利率 62.6%,年增 47 个百分点;过去的毛利率高点为 48%。营业利益率 44.3%,税后净利 204.7 亿元,EPS 10.34 元,EBITDA 283 亿元。去年全年 EPS 为 -1.77 元。

财务结构: 每股净值 36.95 元,前一季 31.28 元,去年同期 22.8 元。近 12 个月 ROE 35%,净利率 33%,负债比降至 35.5%。总资产 1,137 亿元,首度突破千亿。借款约 200 亿元。去年发行的可转债已在第三季全数转换完毕。

现金流: 现金及约当现金 295 亿元,较上半年增加约 72 亿元。本季营业现金流 133.9 亿元,CapEx 支出 43 亿元,自由现金流约 90 亿元。全年折旧摊销预估约 50~51 亿元。存货季增约 17 亿元,主要是积极投产带来的在制品。

产品组合:

NAND: 营收占比 47%,季增 39%,年增 768%。成长主要来自 eMMC,旺宏约一年前才开始供应 eMMC。
NOR: 营收占比 46%,季增 21%,年增 158%。资料中心对高容量 NOR 的需求持续增加。
ROM 与代工: ROM 逐步淡出,下次法说会起不再单独报告。8 吋厂已转做 NOR,代工业务因此规模受限。

市场展望与需求:

NOR 应用: 资料中心(电脑类)占 NOR 营收 47%,仍是主要动能,公司表示「被客户追着跑」。车用总量仍在增加,但多项应用争夺有限产能,因此车用占比下滑。
高容量趋势: 资料中心 NOR 需求正从 512Mb 转向 1Gb、2Gb。一颗 2Gb 相当于四颗 512Mb。
eMMC: 最大应用为通讯,太空通讯(低轨卫星)需求持续成长。公司自评居优势地位,已有多家业者主动洽谈合作。
成长来源: 产能有限,目前成长全部来自价格提升。公司将产能集中在资料中心、太空通讯、医疗、工控、车用等高品质市场,并强调「旺宏不是 me-too 公司」。

产能扩充规划:

投资规模: 年初规划投资 220 亿元,董事会之后又追加 158 亿元,合计 300 多亿元。
时程: 第一阶段设备今年起陆续进厂,经认证后在 2027 年下半年量产。追加 158 亿元的设备预计 2027 年下半年至年底才进厂,量产时间落在 2028 年。
策略: 不再增加 NOR 产能,新产能主要用在 3D eMMC NAND。

产品技术策略:

3D NOR: 今年 7 月与 10 月推出新设计,过去研发遇到的问题已全部解决,预计 1~2 年内推出 2Gb、4Gb 高容量产品。11 月初将在 Electronica 展出 demo board,主打 2D NOR 做不到的功能。下一步的重点是品质。
3D NAND: 2027 年将以 96 层作为 eMMC NAND 主力制程,良率不错,获利能力明显高于 2D。公司也会逐步精简制程种类。三星等大厂淡出低容量 NAND 后,旺宏预期有取代机会,2027 年营收贡献将进一步扩大。

公司治理与股东回报:

员工酬劳: 公司章程规定获利的 15% 分配给员工,目前已提列在费用中。
股利: 明年的股利配发尚无规划,将由董事会在明年讨论。
长期协议(LTA): 目前未与任何客户签订。董事长表示只签对双方都公平的合约。

二、问答完整清单 (Q&A)

Q1:MLC NAND 报价是否停涨?(投资人)
回答:价格属于公司重要资讯,不予评论。旺宏产能尚未实际增加,新投资要到明年下半年才量产,因此在有限产能下,公司仍有成长空间。

Q2:新产能是否延后?NOR 新产能能否在 2027 年上半年产出?(投资人)
回答:第一阶段设备今年开始进厂,2027 年下半年量产,时程已确定。追加 158 亿元的设备可能要到明年下半年或年底才进厂,量产会落在 2028 年。NOR 产能不会再增加,扩产将集中在 3D eMMC NAND。只要找到对的客户,合约价上涨是必然的。

Q3:NOR 的供需、涨价延续性与产能规划?(投资人)
回答:不会再增加 NOR 产能。公司不以量取胜,而是把有限产能放在太空通讯、资料中心与医疗等最重要的市场。公司的经营方向与其他同业不同。

Q4:NOR 出货量季减 12%,原因是转产能还是需求放缓?(投资人)
回答:不是需求放缓,而是工厂产能有限,部分产能移转给 NAND,所以 NAND 大幅成长。产能配置以对公司长期发展最有利为原则。

Q5:存货季增约 18% 至约 115 亿元的组成?营业费用季增 24% 是否含员工酬劳?(投资人)
回答:营业费用增加主要来自员工酬劳。公司章程规定获利的 15% 分配给员工,已预先提列在费用中。存货增加主要是积极投产带来的在制品(WIP)。公司接单后才生产最终成品。

Q6:存货回转利益主要来自哪项产品?(投资人)
回答:没有刻意区分。eMMC 是新产品,没有存货回转,以往的回转主要来自 NOR。存货去化会按部就班进行,之后可能仍会陆续有回转。

Q7:以出货量计算,资料中心占电脑类比重多少?(投资人)
回答:比重不重要,重点是合作对象。目前缺货,由公司决定出货分配,会优先照顾重要应用与长期客户。半导体生产周期约 5~6 个月,配置不会频繁变动。

Q8:中国厂商扩充 NAND 产能,对 SLC NAND 与 eMMC 有何影响?(投资人)
回答:不针对外部扩产评论。公司会持续支持长期策略市场,包括工控、车用、医疗与太空通讯,不会以降价抢市。

Q9:192 层、300 层以上 TLC/QLC、3D NOR、1.2V NOR 的研发与量产时程是否受影响?(投资人)
回答:不受影响,研发持续聚焦。新技术有不确定性,仍需要学习曲线。旺宏规模小,不与三星、海力士、美光正面竞争,而是以差异化产品为客户创造价值。

Q10:2027 年库存回补是否延续?(投资人)
回答:会延续,但规模不一定与今年相同。产能有限,公司会让出货平均化,之后再由新产能延续业务。另外,公司目前未签任何长期协议(LTA),只签对双方公平的合约。

Q11:明年股息配发率是否有初步规划?(投资人)
回答:目前没有。股利属于董事会职权,明年将与董事讨论。

Q12:3D NOR 新设计的后续进展与贡献?(投资人)
回答:11 月初将在 Electronica 展出 demo board。除了更高容量,3D NOR 还能提供 2D NOR 做不到的功能,目标是做出不可取代的独特解决方案与更高品质。

Q13:低轨卫星、工控、医疗的布局?(投资人)
回答:都已经在进行,具体策略不对外说明。

Q14:各产品线涨价潜力如何排序?ROM 为何淡出?(投资人)
回答:涨价取决于需求,无法排序,公司每项产品都能涨价。关键在于提供有价值的解决方案,客户才会接受价格调升。ROM 淡出是因为资源有限,重心已转向 NOR 与 eMMC,与游戏应用的关联已不大。

Q15:3D NAND 的营收贡献时点与幅度?(投资人)
回答:明年 3D NAND 的营收成长会更明显。大厂淡出低容量 NAND 后,旺宏有很好的机会取代,但仍受产能限制,公司会随时调整。

Q16:3D NAND TLC 48 层、96 层的晶圆产出约为 2D 19 奈米的几倍?(投资人)
回答:没有直接回答倍数。明年 eMMC NAND 将以 96 层为主力,并逐步精简制程。96 层良率不错,获利能力明显优于 2D。

Q17:三星、铠侠、SK海力士的 2D NAND 已 EOL,旺宏扩产能否补足缺口?客户的采购方向或规格是否改变?(投资人)
回答:客户一定会寻找其他方案,旺宏不可能接下所有客户,只会照顾好长期合作客户。另外补充 3D NOR:初期研发因经验不足遇到困难,新版本已一次解决先前的问题,对高容量 NOR 的应用帮助很大,下一步重点是品质。

Q18:同业收购台系公司 NOR 产能,如何看待工控与车用利基市场的竞争?(投资人)
回答:不予评论,竞争是好事。旺宏不做 me-too 产品,而是以新想法创造新应用。公司自评是全球最大的医疗用 Flash 供应商。

Q19:eMMC 工规与商规有何差别?(投资人)
回答:两者有一定规格差异,旺宏两种都提供,会确保产品符合客户要求的规格。

Q20:资料中心 NOR 需求是否集中在少数 AI 伺服器客户?是跟着 NVIDIA Blackwell 换代,还是来自一般伺服器?(投资人)
回答:高容量 NOR 大多与最新的资料中心相关。资料中心对品质要求极高,旺宏在这个领域居领先地位。

Q21:明年新增产能的主要成长来自太空还是资料中心?(投资人)

回答:未正面回答,请提问者自行判断产能会放在哪里。

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      "level": 1
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      "id": 36,
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    "description": "一、2026 年第三季财务与营运详情 财务表现: 营收与获利: 第三季营收 242 亿元,季增 27%,较去年同期的 82 亿元成长近 3 倍,创历史新高。毛利率 70.5%,前一季为 64.4%;毛利中含存货回转利益约 7,500 万元。营业费用 41 亿元,季增 24%,增加的部分主要是员工酬劳提列。 营业利益 129 亿元,营业利益率 53.4%,季增 44%,去年同期为亏损。税后净利 109.5 亿元,季增 42%。EPS 5.52 元,前一季为 3.91 元。EBITDA 143 亿元",
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    "content": "<p>一、2026 年第三季财务与营运详情</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6638451/l/cfded4ba9e3adc58b42d52ceff161a07.jpg\" alt=\"【旺宏法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/27\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>财务表现:</p>\n\n<p>营收与获利: 第三季营收 242 亿元,季增 27%,较去年同期的 82 亿元成长近 3 倍,创历史新高。毛利率 70.5%,前一季为 64.4%;毛利中含存货回转利益约 7,500 万元。营业费用 41 亿元,季增 24%,增加的部分主要是员工酬劳提列。</p>\n\n<p>营业利益 129 亿元,营业利益率 53.4%,季增 44%,去年同期为亏损。税后净利 109.5 亿元,季增 42%。EPS 5.52 元,前一季为 3.91 元。EBITDA 143 亿元,EBITDA 率 59%。</p>\n\n<p>前三季累计: 营收 538 亿元,年增 155%,已超过 2021 年全年 505 亿元的历史纪录。毛利率 62.6%,年增 47 个百分点;过去的毛利率高点为 48%。营业利益率 44.3%,税后净利 204.7 亿元,EPS 10.34 元,EBITDA 283 亿元。去年全年 EPS 为 -1.77 元。</p>\n\n<p>财务结构: 每股净值 36.95 元,前一季 31.28 元,去年同期 22.8 元。近 12 个月 ROE 35%,净利率 33%,负债比降至 35.5%。总资产 1,137 亿元,首度突破千亿。借款约 200 亿元。去年发行的可转债已在第三季全数转换完毕。</p>\n\n<p>现金流: 现金及约当现金 295 亿元,较上半年增加约 72 亿元。本季营业现金流 133.9 亿元,CapEx 支出 43 亿元,自由现金流约 90 亿元。全年折旧摊销预估约 50~51 亿元。存货季增约 17 亿元,主要是积极投产带来的在制品。</p>\n\n<p>产品组合:</p>\n\n<p>NAND: 营收占比 47%,季增 39%,年增 768%。成长主要来自 eMMC,旺宏约一年前才开始供应 eMMC。<br>\nNOR: 营收占比 46%,季增 21%,年增 158%。资料中心对高容量 NOR 的需求持续增加。<br>\nROM 与代工: ROM 逐步淡出,下次法说会起不再单独报告。8 吋厂已转做 NOR,代工业务因此规模受限。</p>\n\n<p>市场展望与需求:</p>\n\n<p>NOR 应用: 资料中心(电脑类)占 NOR 营收 47%,仍是主要动能,公司表示「被客户追着跑」。车用总量仍在增加,但多项应用争夺有限产能,因此车用占比下滑。<br>\n高容量趋势: 资料中心 NOR 需求正从 512Mb 转向 1Gb、2Gb。一颗 2Gb 相当于四颗 512Mb。<br>\neMMC: 最大应用为通讯,太空通讯(低轨卫星)需求持续成长。公司自评居优势地位,已有多家业者主动洽谈合作。<br>\n成长来源: 产能有限,目前成长全部来自价格提升。公司将产能集中在资料中心、太空通讯、医疗、工控、车用等高品质市场,并强调「旺宏不是 me-too 公司」。</p>\n\n<p>产能扩充规划:</p>\n\n<p>投资规模: 年初规划投资 220 亿元,董事会之后又追加 158 亿元,合计 300 多亿元。<br>\n时程: 第一阶段设备今年起陆续进厂,经认证后在 2027 年下半年量产。追加 158 亿元的设备预计 2027 年下半年至年底才进厂,量产时间落在 2028 年。<br>\n策略: 不再增加 NOR 产能,新产能主要用在 3D eMMC NAND。</p>\n\n<p>产品技术策略:</p>\n\n<p>3D NOR: 今年 7 月与 10 月推出新设计,过去研发遇到的问题已全部解决,预计 1~2 年内推出 2Gb、4Gb 高容量产品。11 月初将在 Electronica 展出 demo board,主打 2D NOR 做不到的功能。下一步的重点是品质。<br>\n3D NAND: 2027 年将以 96 层作为 eMMC NAND 主力制程,良率不错,获利能力明显高于 2D。公司也会逐步精简制程种类。三星等大厂淡出低容量 NAND 后,旺宏预期有取代机会,2027 年营收贡献将进一步扩大。</p>\n\n<p>公司治理与股东回报:</p>\n\n<p>员工酬劳: 公司章程规定获利的 15% 分配给员工,目前已提列在费用中。<br>\n股利: 明年的股利配发尚无规划,将由董事会在明年讨论。<br>\n长期协议(LTA): 目前未与任何客户签订。董事长表示只签对双方都公平的合约。</p>\n\n<p>二、问答完整清单 (Q&A)</p>\n\n<p>Q1:MLC NAND 报价是否停涨?(投资人)<br>\n回答:价格属于公司重要资讯,不予评论。旺宏产能尚未实际增加,新投资要到明年下半年才量产,因此在有限产能下,公司仍有成长空间。</p>\n\n<p>Q2:新产能是否延后?NOR 新产能能否在 2027 年上半年产出?(投资人)<br>\n回答:第一阶段设备今年开始进厂,2027 年下半年量产,时程已确定。追加 158 亿元的设备可能要到明年下半年或年底才进厂,量产会落在 2028 年。NOR 产能不会再增加,扩产将集中在 3D eMMC NAND。只要找到对的客户,合约价上涨是必然的。</p>\n\n<p>Q3:NOR 的供需、涨价延续性与产能规划?(投资人)<br>\n回答:不会再增加 NOR 产能。公司不以量取胜,而是把有限产能放在太空通讯、资料中心与医疗等最重要的市场。公司的经营方向与其他同业不同。</p>\n\n<p>Q4:NOR 出货量季减 12%,原因是转产能还是需求放缓?(投资人)<br>\n回答:不是需求放缓,而是工厂产能有限,部分产能移转给 NAND,所以 NAND 大幅成长。产能配置以对公司长期发展最有利为原则。</p>\n\n<p>Q5:存货季增约 18% 至约 115 亿元的组成?营业费用季增 24% 是否含员工酬劳?(投资人)<br>\n回答:营业费用增加主要来自员工酬劳。公司章程规定获利的 15% 分配给员工,已预先提列在费用中。存货增加主要是积极投产带来的在制品(WIP)。公司接单后才生产最终成品。</p>\n\n<p>Q6:存货回转利益主要来自哪项产品?(投资人)<br>\n回答:没有刻意区分。eMMC 是新产品,没有存货回转,以往的回转主要来自 NOR。存货去化会按部就班进行,之后可能仍会陆续有回转。</p>\n\n<p>Q7:以出货量计算,资料中心占电脑类比重多少?(投资人)<br>\n回答:比重不重要,重点是合作对象。目前缺货,由公司决定出货分配,会优先照顾重要应用与长期客户。半导体生产周期约 5~6 个月,配置不会频繁变动。</p>\n\n<p>Q8:中国厂商扩充 NAND 产能,对 SLC NAND 与 eMMC 有何影响?(投资人)<br>\n回答:不针对外部扩产评论。公司会持续支持长期策略市场,包括工控、车用、医疗与太空通讯,不会以降价抢市。</p>\n\n<p>Q9:192 层、300 层以上 TLC/QLC、3D NOR、1.2V NOR 的研发与量产时程是否受影响?(投资人)<br>\n回答:不受影响,研发持续聚焦。新技术有不确定性,仍需要学习曲线。旺宏规模小,不与三星、海力士、美光正面竞争,而是以差异化产品为客户创造价值。</p>\n\n<p>Q10:2027 年库存回补是否延续?(投资人)<br>\n回答:会延续,但规模不一定与今年相同。产能有限,公司会让出货平均化,之后再由新产能延续业务。另外,公司目前未签任何长期协议(LTA),只签对双方公平的合约。</p>\n\n<p>Q11:明年股息配发率是否有初步规划?(投资人)<br>\n回答:目前没有。股利属于董事会职权,明年将与董事讨论。</p>\n\n<p>Q12:3D NOR 新设计的后续进展与贡献?(投资人)<br>\n回答:11 月初将在 Electronica 展出 demo board。除了更高容量,3D NOR 还能提供 2D NOR 做不到的功能,目标是做出不可取代的独特解决方案与更高品质。</p>\n\n<p>Q13:低轨卫星、工控、医疗的布局?(投资人)<br>\n回答:都已经在进行,具体策略不对外说明。</p>\n\n<p>Q14:各产品线涨价潜力如何排序?ROM 为何淡出?(投资人)<br>\n回答:涨价取决于需求,无法排序,公司每项产品都能涨价。关键在于提供有价值的解决方案,客户才会接受价格调升。ROM 淡出是因为资源有限,重心已转向 NOR 与 eMMC,与游戏应用的关联已不大。</p>\n\n<p>Q15:3D NAND 的营收贡献时点与幅度?(投资人)<br>\n回答:明年 3D NAND 的营收成长会更明显。大厂淡出低容量 NAND 后,旺宏有很好的机会取代,但仍受产能限制,公司会随时调整。</p>\n\n<p>Q16:3D NAND TLC 48 层、96 层的晶圆产出约为 2D 19 奈米的几倍?(投资人)<br>\n回答:没有直接回答倍数。明年 eMMC NAND 将以 96 层为主力,并逐步精简制程。96 层良率不错,获利能力明显优于 2D。</p>\n\n<p>Q17:三星、铠侠、SK海力士的 2D NAND 已 EOL,旺宏扩产能否补足缺口?客户的采购方向或规格是否改变?(投资人)<br>\n回答:客户一定会寻找其他方案,旺宏不可能接下所有客户,只会照顾好长期合作客户。另外补充 3D NOR:初期研发因经验不足遇到困难,新版本已一次解决先前的问题,对高容量 NOR 的应用帮助很大,下一步重点是品质。</p>\n\n<p>Q18:同业收购台系公司 NOR 产能,如何看待工控与车用利基市场的竞争?(投资人)<br>\n回答:不予评论,竞争是好事。旺宏不做 me-too 产品,而是以新想法创造新应用。公司自评是全球最大的医疗用 Flash 供应商。</p>\n\n<p>Q19:eMMC 工规与商规有何差别?(投资人)<br>\n回答:两者有一定规格差异,旺宏两种都提供,会确保产品符合客户要求的规格。</p>\n\n<p>Q20:资料中心 NOR 需求是否集中在少数 AI 伺服器客户?是跟着 NVIDIA Blackwell 换代,还是来自一般伺服器?(投资人)<br>\n回答:高容量 NOR 大多与最新的资料中心相关。资料中心对品质要求极高,旺宏在这个领域居领先地位。</p>\n\n<p>Q21:明年新增产能的主要成长来自太空还是资料中心?(投资人)</p>\n\n<p>回答:未正面回答,请提问者自行判断产能会放在哪里。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6005.html\" title=\"AI辅导团交成绩单!从螺帽厂到早餐店逾9千家导入 拚2028年产值500亿\">AI辅导团交成绩单!从螺帽厂到早餐店逾9千家导入 拚2028年产值500亿</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10563.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 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    "createdAt": "2026-10-27T12:17:39.000Z",
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