TrendForce：NOR Flash、SLC NAND上半年价格倍增下半年还会涨

研调机构 TrendForce 今 (16) 日公布最新研究，由于记忆体大厂的产能规划持续倾向 HBM、高层数 3D NAND 等高附加价值产品，排挤 NOR Flash、SLC NAND 依赖的成熟制程产能，带动 2026 上半年 NOR Flash、SLC NAND 累积合约价涨幅皆突破 100%，且由于供应商未有大规模扩产计划，预估下半年两项产品的价格将续涨。

TrendForce 说明，NOR Flash 的核心价值为即时执行 (XIP) 能力与高稳定性。在汽车电子领域，随着自动驾驶辅助系统、智慧座舱等功能升级，车载韧体容量快速膨胀，高密度 NOR Flash 已成关键元件。

边缘 AI 装置部分，过去容量仅需数十 MB 的系统程式，因 AI 模型本地化运算需求增加，需求往往倍数成长，带动 256Mb 以上高容量 NOR Flash 需求快速提升。此外，在工控、卫星通讯及航太设备等领域，NOR Flash 的高可靠特性难以由其他技术取代，形成稳定且高毛利的需求基础。

SLC NAND 则因高 P/E 寿命、极低错误率、长期资料保存能力、宽温运作特性，成为许多高可靠度系统的唯一选择。近年智慧工厂、机器人、自主移动设备以及高阶网通交换器等产品大量导入即时推论 (Inference AI) 功能，推升对高可靠度储存系统需求。

企业级伺服器与资料中心则持续使用 SLC NAND 作为作业系统开机碟 (Boot Drive) 及高频写入缓冲区 (Write-intensive Buffer)。在医疗影像设备、军工电子、航太系统等对资料错误几乎零容忍的环境，SLC NAND 更有不可替代的市场地位。

TrendForce 表示，2026 上半年终端对记忆体产品需求逐步恢复，加上 AI 相关应用快速成长，大幅消耗市场有限的供给，NOR Flash 率先出现交期延长与配货 (Allocation) 现象，合约价平均累积涨幅将达 100-120%，高容量产品涨势更显著。

SLC NAND 则因部分国际大厂陆续退出小容量及成熟制程产品，供给明显萎缩，而工控、车用及网通客户又开始建立长期安全库存，导致第二季出现明显的恐慌性备货潮，上半年价格平均累积涨幅将达 130-150%。

分析 2026 下半年价格走势，由于全球主要供应商目前皆以制程微缩、提高良率及优化单位晶圆产出为主，无新增产能计划，预期下半年开始，高度依赖长生命周期产品的车用与工控市场将形成长期缺货风险。其中，高容量 NOR Flash 有车用电子与边缘 AI 需求支撑，预计下半年价格仍有 60-65% 以上的调涨空间。而中低容量 NOR Flash 则可能受中国供应商产能逐步释放影响，价格涨势趋缓，部分产品甚至进入高档盘整阶段。

SLC NAND 虽然多数产品需求未明显增加，供应来源却持续减少，预估 2026 下半年价格涨势虽将收敛，但仍有 70-75% 的上涨空间，工业、车规级产品涨势可能更强。

TrendForce 指出，为避免价格失控冲击合作关系或促使客户寻求替代技术，主要供应商未来更可能透过长期供货合约 (LTA) 与选择性接单策略管理供需，意味未来市场竞争的核心将不再只是价格，而是供货稳定性与客户关系管理能力。

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