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"description": "高盛称标普500 2026年EPS估261美元、实际可达326美元，获利成长主因AI产业爆发。 标普500与那指10月初创高；截至10/28涨约13%、14%，但本益比与远期本益比已回落。 文中指AI云端投资若放缓，恐压抑辉达等供应链成长；爱德万测试上调财测，续看好先进封装需求。",
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"content": "<p><strong>高盛近期的报告显示，按照标普500指数的长期历史趋势，2026年标普500指数的EPS为261美元，但实际预估可达326美元。1995年时，美股企业的净利润率仅约6%，至2026年时高达13%，并且本波美股企业净利润率的高成长，来自于AI产业的爆发。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640477/l/4b2b80f341538578bdb9f232d2426eff.jpg\" alt=\"两大阴影垄罩华尔街！？加权指数上冲下洗！现在是该恐惧还是贪婪？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><strong>标普500指数与那斯达克指数分别在10月初创下历史新高，也基本反应美国企业的获利成长，标普500指数今年至昨日(10/28)涨幅约13%，本益比与远期本益比却从去年底分别28倍及21.3倍，降至25.9倍及19倍。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>根据市场机构统计，AI供应链占标普500指数成分股的权重约50%，占那斯达克指数成分股的权重则超过70%，那斯达克指数今年至昨日(10/28)涨幅约14%，本益比与远期本益比却从去年底分别约35倍及25.4倍，降至约28倍及20倍。那斯达克指数涨幅略高于标普500指数，本益比与远期本益比降幅却高于标普500指数，主因是高速成长的AI产业链于那斯达克指数权重较高。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－<br>\nLINE@</strong> <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><br>\n<strong>频道连结</strong><a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\"><strong>https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</strong></a></p>\n\n<p><strong>如果依照2025年底的本益比计算，标普500指数应该在8300点上下(10/28收7738点)；那斯达克指数应该在31400点上下(10/28收26549点)。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>导致标普500指数与那斯达克指数的报酬率无法反应基本面的两大原因：成长极限、均值回归。</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"244\" data-ratio=\"1.7745901639344261\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640477/m/bc027a51f3fcfb7355ebc8d0e73d0e67.jpg\" data-width=\"433\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6640477/m/bc027a51f3fcfb7355ebc8d0e73d0e67.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p><strong>以辉达(NVDA-US)为例，2027财年Q2毛利率约75%，2028财年毛利率预估72-73%，毛利率来到顶端，辉达未来的高成长仰赖营收持续性的高成长，如果AI云端服务公司投资趋缓，辉达成长性必受影响，甚至会影响毛利率。这也是为何辉达市值突破5.1兆美元，但远期本益比仅18倍，无法完全反应基本面。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>所以，市场担忧新创/独立云端服务商的债务问题，昨日(10/28)Alphabet财报逊于预期，盘后大跌，还有一个原因就是自由现金流量转负。根本原因就是担心AI云端服务公司放缓投资，导致美国企业获利不只遇到成长极限，甚至面临均值回归的风险。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>从Meta、微软及Alphabet接连公布财报，对于未来资本支出看法不变，另外，包含美光、ASML、台积电与爱得万测试等国际大型AI供应链，整个产业链上下游，都持续看好2027年及以后的行情。投资朋友不用过度担忧，反而应该利用市场谨慎时布局。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>半导体测试设备巨擘爱德万测试再度调升财测，先进封装测试的需求强劲，持续看好相关供应链。另外，台股今日出卖压，加权指数再度跌破季线，AI绩优股再度回档，投资朋友可留意相关供应链布局机会。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>台股上下来回震荡，操作难度大增。不知如何进场？不知如何换股？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入</strong><a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><strong>并私讯【金融家】有最新优惠活动！</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>AI</strong><strong>供应链绩优股如下：</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>先进封装：台积电(2303-TW)、世界(5347-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)、力成(6239-TW)、精材(3374-TW)</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>AI</strong><strong>绩优股：鸿海(2317-TW)、嘉泽(3533-TW)、欣兴(3037-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)、国巨(2327-TW)、华新科(2492-TW)</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→<br>\n都在叶老师的 Line @：<br>\nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)</strong></p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><strong> </strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔！</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师</strong></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\"><strong>本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利 投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</strong></p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-19648.html\" title=\"被动元件变「事故」？国巨套在800该停损吗？超马芭乐：只看故事会死！这档「外资狂买」才是真黑马\">被动元件变「事故」？国巨套在800该停损吗？超马芭乐：只看故事会死！这档「外资狂买」才是真黑马</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18173.html\" title=\"3大破兆预算新会期上阵！政院揭10大重点议案聚焦民生经济 社福津贴回溯7/1加码\">3大破兆预算新会期上阵！政院揭10大重点议案聚焦民生经济 社福津贴回溯7/1加码</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14535.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 立隆电(2472)8月营收13.11亿元年增率高达51.19％\">营收速报 - 立隆电(2472)8月营收13.11亿元年增率高达51.19％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13064.html\" title=\"利多齐发台股却攻不动？资金弃高就低！低基期概念正浮现补涨讯号\">利多齐发台股却攻不动？资金弃高就低！低基期概念正浮现补涨讯号</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9209.html\" title=\"〈热门股〉记忆体模组成资金避风港 创见周涨11%\">〈热门股〉记忆体模组成资金避风港 创见周涨11%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-21816.html\" title=\"〈热门股〉中釉凭转型新材料事业力拚转机 周涨12.44%站回所有均线\">〈热门股〉中釉凭转型新材料事业力拚转机 周涨12.44%站回所有均线</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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