费半崩跌7.2%、台积电ADR重挫近6%！台股最惨还没到→还有更大的崩跌在后？

上周五美股大跌！费半指数暴跌7.2％，台积电ADR重挫5.95％，辉达跌4.22%，英特尔更惨暴跌近29%。台股黑色星期一显然是逃不过了！看着手中股票一档接一档下跌，帐面获利不断缩水，很难不冒出一个念头：「是不是还有更大的崩跌在后面？要不要先全部砍掉，等真的落底再买回来？」

这个想法很正常，但往往也是最贵的决定。因为市场最会惩罚的，不是买贵的人，而是在恐慌低点把好公司卖掉的人。所以，江江提醒大家：股价下跌，不代表公司变差！现在最重要的不是跟着市场恐慌杀低，而是分清楚短线恐慌与长线趋势。

AI泡沫来了吗？先看企业还有没有赚钱！

这波科技股重挫与市场对AI投资支出、企业获利回报及财测的疑虑有关。这个担忧并非没有道理。AI基础建设投入庞大资金，市场当然会追问：花这么多钱，到底能赚回多少？

但要注意，AI投资报酬率受到质疑，不代表AI需求立即消失，更不代表所有供应链企业的获利都会反转。就像一家排队名店，突然因为暴雨而没人上门，不代表它的招牌菜突然变难吃了。股价反映市场预期，企业能否持续赚钱，才是长线投资的关键。

以台湾供应链来看，台积电就是最明显的例子。它第三季合并营收1兆4,942亿元，年增50.9%；税后净利7,630.6亿元，年增68.7%；EPS 29.43元，前三季累计EPS已达78.75元。这不是靠题材撑起来的公司，而是营收、获利、毛利率都还在高位运转的核心资产。

所以，当台积电ADR因为美股情绪被杀近6%时，你要问的不是「台积电是不是不行了」，而是「全球最先进晶片的供不应求，有没有因为这根K棒消失？」答案很明显：没有。

融资清洗加剧卖压，落底讯号值得观察

市场急跌时，最怕的不只是利空，而是融资杠杆引发的多杀多连锁卖压。股价下跌、维持率降低，部分投资人被迫卖股，进一步压低股价。这就像骨牌一张接一张倒下，短线跌势可能因此加剧。不过，融资减少有利筹码的清洗、多头的反攻！

上周五比较值得注意的讯号，是急跌后可能出现的「低档双背离」：指数创低，但RSI、KD等摆荡指标没有同步破底。这通常代表空方力道正在衰竭，市场的恐慌卖压不像表面那么无止尽。

当然，背离不是「明天必涨」的保证书。它比较像天气预报说暴雨快停了，你不用立刻冲出门，但也不该因为还在下雨，就把雨伞丢掉。接下来更实用的做法，是等「落底四部曲」：

1急跌：利空齐发，把不坚定的融资洗出去。

2盘底：跌完开始震荡，小红小黑交替，把底部磨出来。

3缺口：出现向上跳空缺口，三天内不被回补，代表利空出尽。

4起攻：KD低档黄金交叉、MACD柱状体翻红，确认反攻开始。

急跌盘底先分批买基本部位，缺口和金叉确认后再加码。

5档指标股，看获利不看情绪股价打折下来才有甜蜜点

台积电(2330-TW)：全球先进制程与先进封装核心，第三季EPS 29.43元、获利年增68.7%，先进制程占晶圆销售金额79%。AI晶片与2奈米扩产是长线主轴，拉回反而让估值与筹码更健康。

联发科(2454-TW)：从手机SoC跨入AI ASIC，已传出取得字节跳动客制化晶片订单；第三季获利季增逾一成，EPS 17.5元，并宣布配发上半年度现金股利24.5元。短线受市场情绪压抑，但成长引擎正在切换。

鸿海(2317-TW)：AI伺服器组装与垂直整合能力是核心，云端大厂资本支出续强，让其AI伺服器出货动能具备支撑。它不是最性感的题材股，却是AI基建落地时很难绕开的制造要角。

川湖(2059-TW)：AI伺服器高阶滑轨龙头，产品单价与技术门槛高，受惠伺服器机柜密度、重量与散热需求提升。这种关键零组件的逻辑是：只要AI伺服器持续放量，高阶规格需求就会跟着升级。

奇𬭎(3017-TW)：水冷与散热模组供应链要角。AI晶片功耗愈来愈高，散热从「配角」变成「能不能稳定运算」的关键；当算力军备竞赛继续，散热需求就会跟着膨胀。

结论：投资比的是气长与心态。现在最忌讳两种操作：一种是恐慌砍在低点，另一种是看到跌深就一次押满。市场大跌，本来就是好公司在打折特卖。锁定实质获利成长的一线龙头，静待「落底四部曲」的攻击讯号确认，这波拉回，绝对是老天爷送给有准备的上班族最棒的财富重分配礼物！

更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：

https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ

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坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！

并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】

文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"path": "/whhq" }, { "id": 4221, "title": "金秋九月，TMGM平台官网积分商城特别礼品！限量版周琦签名篮球、球衣！", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/06/29/1782715894613_kk5kom.png", "path": "/whhq" } ], "cate": { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 22764, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "费半崩跌7.2%、台积电ADR重挫近6%！台股最惨还没到→还有更大的崩跌在后？", "shortTitle": "费半崩跌7.2%、台积电ADR重挫近6%！台股最惨还没到→还", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "上周五美股大跌！费半指数暴跌7.2％，台积电ADR重挫5.95％，辉达跌4.22%，英特尔更惨暴跌近29%。台股黑色星期一显然是逃不过了！看着手中股票一档接一档下跌，帐面获利不断缩水，很难不冒出一个念头：「是不是还有更大的崩跌在后面？要不要先全部砍掉，等真的落底再买回来？」这个想法很正常，但往往也是最贵的决定。因为市场最会惩罚的，不是买贵的人，而是在恐慌低点把好公司卖掉的人。所以，江江提醒大家：股价下跌，不代表公司变差！现在最重要的不是跟着市场恐慌杀低，而是分清楚短线恐慌与长线趋势。 AI泡沫", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643502/l/8e834dba80656e3212b70a35354888f4.jpg", "content": "上周五美股大跌！费半指数暴跌7.2％，台积电ADR重挫5.95％，辉达跌4.22%，英特尔更惨暴跌近29%。台股黑色星期一显然是逃不过了！看着手中股票一档接一档下跌，帐面获利不断缩水，很难不冒出一个念头：「是不是还有更大的崩跌在后面？要不要先全部砍掉，等真的落底再买回来？」\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6643502/l/8e834dba80656e3212b70a35354888f4.jpg\" alt=\"费半崩跌7.2%、台积电ADR重挫近6%！台股最惨还没到→还有更大的崩跌在后？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n这个想法很正常，但往往也是最贵的决定。因为市场最会惩罚的，不是买贵的人，而是在恐慌低点把好公司卖掉的人。所以，江江提醒大家：股价下跌，不代表公司变差！现在最重要的不是跟着市场恐慌杀低，而是分清楚短线恐慌与长线趋势。\n\nAI泡沫来了吗？先看企业还有没有赚钱！\n\n这波科技股重挫与市场对AI投资支出、企业获利回报及财测的疑虑有关。这个担忧并非没有道理。AI基础建设投入庞大资金，市场当然会追问：花这么多钱，到底能赚回多少？\n\n但要注意，AI投资报酬率受到质疑，不代表AI需求立即消失，更不代表所有供应链企业的获利都会反转。就像一家排队名店，突然因为暴雨而没人上门，不代表它的招牌菜突然变难吃了。股价反映市场预期，企业能否持续赚钱，才是长线投资的关键。\n\n以台湾供应链来看，台积电就是最明显的例子。它第三季合并营收1兆4,942亿元，年增50.9%；税后净利7,630.6亿元，年增68.7%；EPS 29.43元，前三季累计EPS已达78.75元。这不是靠题材撑起来的公司，而是营收、获利、毛利率都还在高位运转的核心资产。\n\n所以，当台积电ADR因为美股情绪被杀近6%时，你要问的不是「台积电是不是不行了」，而是「全球最先进晶片的供不应求，有没有因为这根K棒消失？」答案很明显：没有。\n\n融资清洗加剧卖压，落底讯号值得观察\n\n市场急跌时，最怕的不只是利空，而是融资杠杆引发的多杀多连锁卖压。股价下跌、维持率降低，部分投资人被迫卖股，进一步压低股价。这就像骨牌一张接一张倒下，短线跌势可能因此加剧。不过，融资减少有利筹码的清洗、多头的反攻！\n\n上周五比较值得注意的讯号，是急跌后可能出现的「低档双背离」：指数创低，但RSI、KD等摆荡指标没有同步破底。这通常代表空方力道正在衰竭，市场的恐慌卖压不像表面那么无止尽。\n\n当然，背离不是「明天必涨」的保证书。它比较像天气预报说暴雨快停了，你不用立刻冲出门，但也不该因为还在下雨，就把雨伞丢掉。接下来更实用的做法，是等「落底四部曲」：\n\n1急跌：利空齐发，把不坚定的融资洗出去。\n\n2盘底：跌完开始震荡，小红小黑交替，把底部磨出来。\n\n3缺口：出现向上跳空缺口，三天内不被回补，代表利空出尽。\n\n4起攻：KD低档黄金交叉、MACD柱状体翻红，确认反攻开始。\n\n急跌盘底先分批买基本部位，缺口和金叉确认后再加码。\n\n5档指标股，看获利不看情绪股价打折下来才有甜蜜点\n\n台积电(2330-TW)：全球先进制程与先进封装核心，第三季EPS 29.43元、获利年增68.7%，先进制程占晶圆销售金额79%。AI晶片与2奈米扩产是长线主轴，拉回反而让估值与筹码更健康。\n\n联发科(2454-TW)：从手机SoC跨入AI ASIC，已传出取得字节跳动客制化晶片订单；第三季获利季增逾一成，EPS 17.5元，并宣布配发上半年度现金股利24.5元。短线受市场情绪压抑，但成长引擎正在切换。\n\n鸿海(2317-TW)：AI伺服器组装与垂直整合能力是核心，云端大厂资本支出续强，让其AI伺服器出货动能具备支撑。它不是最性感的题材股，却是AI基建落地时很难绕开的制造要角。\n\n川湖(2059-TW)：AI伺服器高阶滑轨龙头，产品单价与技术门槛高，受惠伺服器机柜密度、重量与散热需求提升。这种关键零组件的逻辑是：只要AI伺服器持续放量，高阶规格需求就会跟着升级。\n\n奇𬭎(3017-TW)：水冷与散热模组供应链要角。AI晶片功耗愈来愈高，散热从「配角」变成「能不能稳定运算」的关键；当算力军备竞赛继续，散热需求就会跟着膨胀。\n\n结论：投资比的是气长与心态。现在最忌讳两种操作：一种是恐慌砍在低点，另一种是看到跌深就一次押满。市场大跌，本来就是好公司在打折特卖。锁定实质获利成长的一线龙头，静待「落底四部曲」的攻击讯号确认，这波拉回，绝对是老天爷送给有准备的上班族最棒的财富重分配礼物！\n\n更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩+太权威惹！\n\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPHmuUJoFM\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPHmuUJoFM</a>\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！\n\n并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13181.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉营邦除息秀先蹲后跳涨逾半根停板完成填息\">〈焦点股〉营邦除息秀先蹲后跳涨逾半根停板完成填息</a></li>\n <li><a 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