融资爆减424亿+国安基金进场！台积电、联发科、奇𬭎将反攻？8档AI绩优股出列！

上周五，台股经历了一场史诗级震撼教育！盘中一度有500多档股票跌停，连护国神山台积电（2330-TW）都遭到跌停卖压，前瞻本益比更一度下探14倍。融资追缴、断头卖压接连涌现，很多散户眼看帐面获利瞬间蒸发，甚至从获利变成套牢。

但戏剧性的是，台股最后竟然拉出长达2000点的超长下影线！单日融资大减423.6亿元，减幅高达7.4%，整体上市融资维持率（扣除ETF）降至131%，OTC柜买市场更只有123%。紧接着，政府宣布国安基金第10度启动护盘！

这代表什么？市场最恐慌的时刻，可能正在酝酿转机。但江江要提醒你：融资大减不等于立即见底，国安基金进场也不代表行情马上反转。这到底是绝地反攻的曙光，还是另一个反弹陷阱？

一、AI需求真的熄火了吗？别让短期杂音改变长线趋势！

这次美台股市剧烈震荡，市场除了担心美国德州暂缓部分AI资料中心建设，也开始质疑科技巨头动辄数千亿美元的AI资本支出，究竟能不能换回相对应的获利。但大家想一想，科技革命从来不是一路顺风。

19世纪汽车刚问世时，也曾受到传统马车产业质疑；但汽车带来的效率革命，最终改变了整个交通产业。今天的AI也有类似的产业竞争逻辑。辉达、微软、Google等科技巨头，面对的不是单纯要不要投资，而是谁能率先掌握下一代运算平台与AI生态系。

这就是典型的「囚徒困境」：大家都知道AI投资成本高，但谁也不敢轻易停下脚步，因为竞争对手可能趁机超车。所以，江江认为，这波股市修正，不能直接解读成AI产业趋势结束，而要区分「基本面修正」与「市场估值、筹码修正」。AI长线趋势仍值得关注，但不是每一档AI股票都值得无条件买进。

二、融资大逃杀！技术面止跌密码：「有缺口快，没缺口慢」

这次最值得观察的，就是融资单日大减423.6亿元！融资减少，代表杠杆资金正在快速退场，部分投资人因追缴、停损而被迫卖股。短期虽然造成沉重卖压，但也有助于降低市场过度拥挤的筹码结构。

再加上融资维持率逼近130%，以及国安基金正式进场，代表市场已经进入高度恐慌与政策稳定机制启动的阶段。不过，江江提醒，融资降到低档只是观察指标，不能单独当成底部讯号。接下来要看成交量、融资变化、法人买卖超与技术指标能否同步改善。

尤其要记住八个字：「有缺口快，没缺口慢！」

有缺口快：如果大盘与重要龙头股出现强势多头跳空缺口，接下来几天没有被封闭，搭配MACD柱状体收敛、翻红，代表多方攻击力道逐渐增强，反攻行情有机会加速。

没缺口慢：如果反弹没有跳空缺口，成交量也没有明显放大，就要提防只是跌深反弹。市场可能还需要时间整理筹码，投资人切忌看到红K就急着追高。

那么，下周反弹我们该怎么观察大盘是否真正转强？请牢记这句八字口诀：「有缺口快，没缺口慢」！

有缺口快：若大盘与龙头股能出现强有力的多头跳空缺口，且随后几天没有被封闭，搭配 MACD 柱状体收角翻红、指标呈现正斜率，那就代表绝地反攻的快速波段行情正式启动。
没缺口慢：如果没有出现多头缺口，市场就需要时间反复打底洗筹码，节奏就要放慢，切忌盲目追高。

三、操作策略：不开杠杆，锁定「三率三升」错杀绩优股

经历这次融资大逃杀，接下来操作上要注意，负乖离20%以上不代表一定见底，仍须搭配基本面与筹码确认。

江江给大家三个操作原则：

第一，不要再开杠杆！不要融资买股，也不要借钱投资。市场震荡时，最怕的不是股价下跌，而是资金没有余裕，被迫在最低点卖出。

第二，保留现金，逢低分批布局！利用反弹检视持股，技术面严重破线、筹码涣散，又缺乏业绩支撑的弱势股，应趁反弹调整；资金则逐步转向具备竞争优势、获利能力与长线成长性的企业。

第三，锁定「三率三升」！优先观察毛利率、营业利益率、税后净利率同步改善的公司，再搭配股价季线负乖离过大、近期遭到非理性卖压的标的。

四、8档AI人气指标股！从晶片设计到散热电源，下一波谁先反攻？

这波台股大跌，江江认为，不要只盯着台积电，也不要看到AI股下跌就急着认赔！真正值得研究的，是AI产业链中具备技术门槛、订单优势与获利成长潜力的企业。

台积电（2330-TW）：先进制程与先进封装全球领先，掌握AI晶片制造核心商机。
联发科（2454-TW）：手机晶片复苏，加上ASIC客制化晶片布局，开启AI新成长动能。
创意（3443-TW）： ASIC设计服务大厂，受惠云端巨头自研AI晶片需求。
日月光投控（3711-TW）：全球封测龙头，受惠AI晶片与先进封装、高阶测试需求成长。
健策（3653-TW）： AI伺服器散热与高阶均热片大厂，受惠高功耗晶片规格升级。
奇𬭎（3017-TW）： AI伺服器水冷与散热模组重要供应商，掌握液冷散热成长商机。
辉达（NVDA-US）：全球AI晶片霸主，持续引领GPU与AI运算平台发展。
美光（MU-US）： HBM高频宽记忆体大厂，受惠AI伺服器记忆体需求升级。

不过，江江提醒，好公司不代表任何价格都能买！接下来要进一步观察股价跌幅、筹码变化、获利成长与技术面止跌讯号，找出真正被错杀、具备反攻潜力的标的，而不是盲目追逐热门股。

更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：

https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ

江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩+太权威惹！

坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！

并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】

文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 24071, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "融资爆减424亿+国安基金进场！台积电、联发科、奇𬭎将反攻？8档AI绩优股出列！", "shortTitle": "融资爆减424亿+国安基金进场！台积电、联发科、奇𬭎将反攻？", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "上周五，台股经历了一场史诗级震撼教育！盘中一度有500多档股票跌停，连护国神山台积电（2330-TW）都遭到跌停卖压，前瞻本益比更一度下探14倍。融资追缴、断头卖压接连涌现，很多散户眼看帐面获利瞬间蒸发，甚至从获利变成套牢。但戏剧性的是，台股最后竟然拉出长达2000点的超长下影线！单日融资大减423.6亿元，减幅高达7.4%，整体上市融资维持率（扣除ETF）降至131%，OTC柜买市场更只有123%。紧接着，政府宣布国安基金第10度启动护盘！这代表什么？市场最恐慌的时刻，可能正在酝酿转机。但", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/l/eaa9b2fb53f8dbc12e5414251d877895.jpg", "content": "上周五，台股经历了一场史诗级震撼教育！盘中一度有500多档股票跌停，连护国神山台积电（2330-TW）都遭到跌停卖压，前瞻本益比更一度下探14倍。融资追缴、断头卖压接连涌现，很多散户眼看帐面获利瞬间蒸发，甚至从获利变成套牢。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/l/eaa9b2fb53f8dbc12e5414251d877895.jpg\" alt=\"融资爆减424亿+国安基金进场！台积电、联发科、奇𬭎将反攻？8档AI绩优股出列！\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n但戏剧性的是，台股最后竟然拉出长达2000点的超长下影线！单日融资大减423.6亿元，减幅高达7.4%，整体上市融资维持率（扣除ETF）降至131%，OTC柜买市场更只有123%。紧接着，政府宣布国安基金第10度启动护盘！\n\n这代表什么？市场最恐慌的时刻，可能正在酝酿转机。但江江要提醒你：融资大减不等于立即见底，国安基金进场也不代表行情马上反转。这到底是绝地反攻的曙光，还是另一个反弹陷阱？\n\n一、AI需求真的熄火了吗？别让短期杂音改变长线趋势！\n\n这次美台股市剧烈震荡，市场除了担心美国德州暂缓部分AI资料中心建设，也开始质疑科技巨头动辄数千亿美元的AI资本支出，究竟能不能换回相对应的获利。但大家想一想，科技革命从来不是一路顺风。\n\n19世纪汽车刚问世时，也曾受到传统马车产业质疑；但汽车带来的效率革命，最终改变了整个交通产业。今天的AI也有类似的产业竞争逻辑。辉达、微软、Google等科技巨头，面对的不是单纯要不要投资，而是谁能率先掌握下一代运算平台与AI生态系。\n\n这就是典型的「囚徒困境」：大家都知道AI投资成本高，但谁也不敢轻易停下脚步，因为竞争对手可能趁机超车。所以，江江认为，这波股市修正，不能直接解读成AI产业趋势结束，而要区分「基本面修正」与「市场估值、筹码修正」。AI长线趋势仍值得关注，但不是每一档AI股票都值得无条件买进。\n\n二、融资大逃杀！技术面止跌密码：「有缺口快，没缺口慢」\n\n这次最值得观察的，就是融资单日大减423.6亿元！融资减少，代表杠杆资金正在快速退场，部分投资人因追缴、停损而被迫卖股。短期虽然造成沉重卖压，但也有助于降低市场过度拥挤的筹码结构。\n\n再加上融资维持率逼近130%，以及国安基金正式进场，代表市场已经进入高度恐慌与政策稳定机制启动的阶段。不过，江江提醒，融资降到低档只是观察指标，不能单独当成底部讯号。接下来要看成交量、融资变化、法人买卖超与技术指标能否同步改善。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"293\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.8907849829351535\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/m/f4960db216246a1b943846800dd3f984.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/l/f4960db216246a1b943846800dd3f984.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"428\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.7757009345794392\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/m/6aefd34a0151f0f97685a9cfcfcb9e23.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/l/6aefd34a0151f0f97685a9cfcfcb9e23.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/l/6aefd34a0151f0f97685a9cfcfcb9e23.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/xl/6aefd34a0151f0f97685a9cfcfcb9e23.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6652602/xxl/6aefd34a0151f0f97685a9cfcfcb9e23.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n尤其要记住八个字：「有缺口快，没缺口慢！」\n\n有缺口快：如果大盘与重要龙头股出现强势多头跳空缺口，接下来几天没有被封闭，搭配MACD柱状体收敛、翻红，代表多方攻击力道逐渐增强，反攻行情有机会加速。\n\n没缺口慢：如果反弹没有跳空缺口，成交量也没有明显放大，就要提防只是跌深反弹。市场可能还需要时间整理筹码，投资人切忌看到红K就急着追高。\n\n那么，下周反弹我们该怎么观察大盘是否真正转强？请牢记这句八字口诀：「有缺口快，没缺口慢」！\n\n<ol>\n<li>有缺口快：若大盘与龙头股能出现强有力的多头跳空缺口，且随后几天没有被封闭，搭配 MACD 柱状体收角翻红、指标呈现正斜率，那就代表绝地反攻的快速波段行情正式启动。</li>\n<li>没缺口慢：如果没有出现多头缺口，市场就需要时间反复打底洗筹码，节奏就要放慢，切忌盲目追高。</li>\n</ol>\n\n三、操作策略：不开杠杆，锁定「三率三升」错杀绩优股\n\n经历这次融资大逃杀，接下来操作上要注意，负乖离20%以上不代表一定见底，仍须搭配基本面与筹码确认。\n\n江江给大家三个操作原则：\n\n第一，不要再开杠杆！不要融资买股，也不要借钱投资。市场震荡时，最怕的不是股价下跌，而是资金没有余裕，被迫在最低点卖出。\n\n第二，保留现金，逢低分批布局！利用反弹检视持股，技术面严重破线、筹码涣散，又缺乏业绩支撑的弱势股，应趁反弹调整；资金则逐步转向具备竞争优势、获利能力与长线成长性的企业。\n\n第三，锁定「三率三升」！优先观察毛利率、营业利益率、税后净利率同步改善的公司，再搭配股价季线负乖离过大、近期遭到非理性卖压的标的。\n\n四、8档AI人气指标股！从晶片设计到散热电源，下一波谁先反攻？\n\n这波台股大跌，江江认为，不要只盯着台积电，也不要看到AI股下跌就急着认赔！真正值得研究的，是AI产业链中具备技术门槛、订单优势与获利成长潜力的企业。\n\n<ol>\n<li>台积电（2330-TW）：先进制程与先进封装全球领先，掌握AI晶片制造核心商机。</li>\n<li>联发科（2454-TW）：手机晶片复苏，加上ASIC客制化晶片布局，开启AI新成长动能。</li>\n<li>创意（3443-TW）： ASIC设计服务大厂，受惠云端巨头自研AI晶片需求。</li>\n<li>日月光投控（3711-TW）：全球封测龙头，受惠AI晶片与先进封装、高阶测试需求成长。</li>\n<li>健策（3653-TW）： AI伺服器散热与高阶均热片大厂，受惠高功耗晶片规格升级。</li>\n<li>奇𬭎（3017-TW）： AI伺服器水冷与散热模组重要供应商，掌握液冷散热成长商机。</li>\n<li>辉达（NVDA-US）：全球AI晶片霸主，持续引领GPU与AI运算平台发展。</li>\n<li>美光（MU-US）： HBM高频宽记忆体大厂，受惠AI伺服器记忆体需求升级。</li>\n</ol>\n\n不过，江江提醒，好公司不代表任何价格都能买！接下来要进一步观察股价跌幅、筹码变化、获利成长与技术面止跌讯号，找出真正被错杀、具备反攻潜力的标的，而不是盲目追逐热门股。\n\n更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩+太权威惹！\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/vF327HoowGE\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！\n\n并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles 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