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韩国金融监督院院长李灿镇公开表示，政府先前放行杠杆型基金「过于草率」，导致市场波动放大，引发去杠杆的疑虑，昨日韩国股市的重跌，也导致费半指数大幅拉回，金融市场已经走向泡沫化了吗？

在分析金融市场是否泡沫化，靠的应该是数据而非感觉，之前替投资朋友追踪过，1999 年底那斯达克指数周期性调整本益比高达 44 倍，甚至部分科技股本益比突破 175 倍。而目前那斯达克指数的预估本益比最新数据为 24.52 倍，换句话说那斯达克指数距离泡沫化还相距甚远。

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昨日费半指数的下跌，导致台股今日跳空开低，但投资朋友不用过度担忧，台积电将是台股的定海神针，日前 Aletheia Capital 发布最新报告，大幅上修台积电 2027 年、2028 年的资本支出预估，分别 850 亿美元、940 亿美元。2027 年的资本支出更是较 2026 年大幅增加 52% 至 57%，而支撑台积电高额资本支出的是获利的高幅成长，预估 2027 年、2028 年的 EPS 分别年增 34% 及 44%。

当市场震荡，投资朋友不知道该投资甚么的时候，台积电及台积电供应链将会是首选标的之一。上面提到过美股目前没有泡沫化危机，并且美国 PMI 指数依然在扩张期，美国景气扩张将维持美股多头走势，美国本波的景气扩张是受惠于 AI 产业投资，台厂作为最重要的供应链，尤其台积电将最为受惠，台积电积极扩产新进制程 / 封装，也将带动供应链的成长，如即将量产的 1.6 奈米、晶背供电技术、玻璃基板封装等相关供应链都是可留意的标的。并且更重的的是「台积电将于 7 月中举办法说会」，市场修正反而是卡位「台积电法说会行情」的好时机。

台积电先进制程 / 封装相关供应链：

先进封装：日月光 (3711-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、长兴 (1717-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)

2 奈米及以下：新应材 (4749-TW)、崇越 (5434-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)、翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)

晶背供电：中砂 (1560-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、天虹 (6937-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)

个股详细解析：

旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。

万润 (6187-TW)：点胶机与自动化散热贴合设备供应商，先进封装营收比重高。

崇越 (5434-TW)：2 奈米高阶半导体材料（如光阻剂、矽晶圆、光罩基板）。

闳康 (3587-TW)：半导体检测龙头，提供材料分析、故障分析（FA）与可靠度分析。

翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。

中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。

升阳半 (8028-TW)：再生晶圆代工与晶圆薄化，其承载晶圆（carrier wafer）技术在晶背供电制程中扮演关键角色。

天虹 (6937-TW)：提供原子层沉积（ALD）及物理气相沉积（PVD）机台，此为实现晶背供电导线布建的重要环节。

台股波段多头的趋势不变，而台积电更是台股多头的领头羊，而资金会在台积电与 AI 供应链中轮动，投资朋友不可轻易追高，但当市场拉回的时候，可以留意相对低基期及出现抗跌的绩优股，尤其在新制程、新材料、新技术中，具有领先技术或市站等优势的个股。台股跳空大跌，还有哪些可留意的标的？欢迎加入 Line @

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"韩国金融监督院院长李灿镇公开表示，政府先前放行杠杆型基金「过于草率」，导致市场波动放大，引发去杠杆的疑虑，昨日韩国股市的重跌，也导致费半指数大幅拉回，金融市场已经走向泡沫化了吗？在分析金融市场是否泡沫化，靠的应该是数据而非感觉，之前替投资朋友追踪过，1999 年底那斯达克指数周期性调整本益比高达 44 倍，甚至部分科技股本益比突破 175 倍。而目前那斯达克指数的预估本益比最新数据为 24.52 倍，换句话说那斯达克指数距离泡沫化还相距甚远。更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ LINE@ htt", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6509955/l/3b55efe8cdf017020c1eda418d4ae788.jpg", "content": "韩国金融监督院院长李灿镇公开表示，政府先前放行杠杆型基金「过于草率」，导致市场波动放大，引发去杠杆的疑虑，昨日韩国股市的重跌，也导致费半指数大幅拉回，金融市场已经走向泡沫化了吗？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6509955/l/3b55efe8cdf017020c1eda418d4ae788.jpg\" alt=\"千点拉回免惊，紧抱这产业帮你提前卡位Q3行情！\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n在分析金融市场是否泡沫化，靠的应该是数据而非感觉，之前替投资朋友追踪过，1999 年底那斯达克指数周期性调整本益比高达 44 倍，甚至部分科技股本益比突破 175 倍。而目前那斯达克指数的预估本益比最新数据为 24.52 倍，换句话说那斯达克指数距离泡沫化还相距甚远。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n昨日费半指数的下跌，导致台股今日跳空开低，但投资朋友不用过度担忧，台积电将是台股的定海神针，日前 Aletheia Capital 发布最新报告，大幅上修台积电 2027 年、2028 年的资本支出预估，分别 850 亿美元、940 亿美元。2027 年的资本支出更是较 2026 年大幅增加 52% 至 57%，而支撑台积电高额资本支出的是获利的高幅成长，预估 2027 年、2028 年的 EPS 分别年增 34% 及 44%。\n\n当市场震荡，投资朋友不知道该投资甚么的时候，台积电及台积电供应链将会是首选标的之一。上面提到过美股目前没有泡沫化危机，并且美国 PMI 指数依然在扩张期，美国景气扩张将维持美股多头走势，美国本波的景气扩张是受惠于 AI 产业投资，台厂作为最重要的供应链，尤其台积电将最为受惠，台积电积极扩产新进制程 / 封装，也将带动供应链的成长，如即将量产的 1.6 奈米、晶背供电技术、玻璃基板封装等相关供应链都是可留意的标的。并且更重的的是「台积电将于 7 月中举办法说会」，市场修正反而是卡位「台积电法说会行情」的好时机。\n\n台积电先进制程 / 封装相关供应链：\n\n先进封装：日月光 (3711-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、长兴 (1717-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)\n\n2 奈米及以下：新应材 (4749-TW)、崇越 (5434-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)、翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)\n\n晶背供电：中砂 (1560-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、天虹 (6937-TW)、弘塑 (3131-TW)\n\n个股详细解析：\n\n旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。\n\n万润 (6187-TW)：点胶机与自动化散热贴合设备供应商，先进封装营收比重高。\n\n崇越 (5434-TW)：2 奈米高阶半导体材料（如光阻剂、矽晶圆、光罩基板）。\n\n闳康 (3587-TW)：半导体检测龙头，提供材料分析、故障分析（FA）与可靠度分析。\n\n翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。\n\n中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。\n\n升阳半 (8028-TW)：再生晶圆代工与晶圆薄化，其承载晶圆（carrier wafer）技术在晶背供电制程中扮演关键角色。\n\n天虹 (6937-TW)：提供原子层沉积（ALD）及物理气相沉积（PVD）机台，此为实现晶背供电导线布建的重要环节。\n\n台股波段多头的趋势不变，而台积电更是台股多头的领头羊，而资金会在台积电与 AI 供应链中轮动，投资朋友不可轻易追高，但当市场拉回的时候，可以留意相对低基期及出现抗跌的绩优股，尤其在新制程、新材料、新技术中，具有领先技术或市站等优势的个股。台股跳空大跌，还有哪些可留意的标的？欢迎加入 Line @\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！ \n频道连结：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a> \n务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16449.html\" 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