华邦电、大立光、友达、七月黑马股谁将接棒？

一、今日盘势重点

1. 台股开高走低，市场追价意愿转趋保守

受美光（Micron）与高通（Qualcomm）财测优于预期激励，台股早盘一度大涨 741 点。
权值股台积电 (2330-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、大立光(3008-TW)、欣兴(3037-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、景硕(3189-TW)、国巨(2327-TW)、兆丰金(2886-TW) 等全面走强。
惟高档获利了结卖压出笼，终场涨幅收敛至 211 点，收 46,255 点。
成交量约 1.3 兆元，较前一日略缩。
OTC 柜买指数下跌 2.25 点，显示中小型股表现相对疲弱。

2. 外资空方动作加剧

外资现货市场连续三日合计卖超约 2,565 亿元。
台指期净空单增至 83,605 口，首度突破 8 万口。
短线市场情绪受到压抑，投资人风险意识升高。

二、为何不必过度悲观？

1. AI 基本面仍是台股最大靠山

5 月工业生产指数 136.65、制造业生产指数 139.12。
年增率分别达 11.78%、12.68%。
连续 27 个月成长并创历史新高。
经济部预估下半年景气将优于上半年。

2. 全球 AI 资本支出持续爆发

北美五大云端业者（Microsoft、AWS、Google、Meta、Oracle）持续扩建 AI 基础设施。
2026 年资本支出估达 8,050 亿美元。
2027 年有机会突破 1.1 兆美元。
台湾拥有晶圆制造、封装测试、材料及系统整合完整供应链，可望持续受惠。

3. ETF 资金形成结构性支撑

台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元。
今年增加逾 3 兆元。
已形成长期稳定买盘来源。
每次拉回均吸引资金进场承接。

三、最新 AI 产业重要利多

1. 美光看好记忆体缺货至 2028 年

AI 伺服器需求强劲推升 HBM 与 DRAM 需求。
公司已签署 16 项长约，锁定未来 3～5 年订单。
预期供需吃紧状况短期难解。

2. 高通积极布局 AI 资料中心

大幅上调 2029 年非手机业务目标。
AI 加速器与资料中心晶片成长潜力庞大。

3. 日月光扩大资本支出

全年同步兴建 15 座新厂。
管理层坦言产能仍供不应求。
显示先进封装需求远超市场预期。

4. 联发科布局太空运算

提出「多重物理量设计」与太空 AI 运算概念。
展现下一世代 AI 晶片发展方向。

5. 辉达机器人商机加速发酵

推出机器人安全平台 Halos。
人形机器人正式进入商业化阶段。
台厂能率、佳能等受惠题材持续升温。

四、后市主流族群

（一）缺货涨价概念股

记忆体：华邦电 (2344-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)
被动元件：国巨 (2327-TW)、华容 (5328-TW)、立隆电 (2472-TW)、九豪 (6127-TW)
MCU、MOSFET、电源管理 IC
导线架、玻纤布与电子材料

（二）AI 高成长产业链

ASIC 客制化晶片
PCB／CCL：联茂 (6213-TW)、腾辉电 (6672-TW)
ABF 载板：欣兴 (3037-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)、景硕 (3189-TW)
CPO 矽光子
第三代半导体
先进封装与设备：汉唐 (2404-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)
晶圆代工与高阶制造

五、投资策略与结论

核心观察

外资偏空与高档震荡属短线干扰。
AI 产业长线成长趋势并未改变。
台湾供应链仍是全球 AI 军备竞赛最大受惠者。

操作建议

坚持「低接不追高」原则。
聚焦 AI、记忆体、先进封装、ABF 载板及 PCB 等主流产业。
利用震荡拉回分批布局。
严格执行资金配置与停损纪律。

结论

短线虽有外资卖超、期货空单攀升与涨多修正压力，但 AI 产业需求爆发、全球云端资本支出持续扩张、ETF 资金稳定流入等三大利多未变，台股中长期多头架构依然稳固，后续仍将维持「指数震荡、个股轮涨」格局，选对产业与个股仍是获利关键。

外资期现货大开杀戒

需要担心害怕吗？

很多人看到的是帐面获利缩水

甚至开始怀疑行情是否已结束

但真正的赢家知道：

✔急跌、往往是主力洗盘的过程

✔修正、往往是下一波喷出的起点

✔恐慌、往往是最好的布局时机

回头看看过去几年

当市场害怕时

有人选择卖出

当市场悲观时

有人选择进场

而最后真正赚到大波段的人

往往都是在别人恐惧的时候勇敢布局

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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(2330-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、大立光(3008-TW)、欣兴(3037-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、景硕(3189-TW)、国巨(2327-TW)、兆丰金(2886-TW) 等全面走强。</li>\n<li>惟高档获利了结卖压出笼，终场涨幅收敛至 211 点，收 46,255 点。</li>\n<li>成交量约 1.3 兆元，较前一日略缩。</li>\n<li>OTC 柜买指数下跌 2.25 点，显示中小型股表现相对疲弱。</li>\n</ul>\n\n2. 外资空方动作加剧\n\n<ul>\n<li>外资现货市场连续三日合计卖超约 2,565 亿元。</li>\n<li>台指期净空单增至 83,605 口，首度突破 8 万口。</li>\n<li>短线市场情绪受到压抑，投资人风险意识升高。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、为何不必过度悲观？\n\n1. AI 基本面仍是台股最大靠山\n\n<ul>\n<li>5 月工业生产指数 136.65、制造业生产指数 139.12。</li>\n<li>年增率分别达 11.78%、12.68%。</li>\n<li>连续 27 个月成长并创历史新高。</li>\n<li>经济部预估下半年景气将优于上半年。</li>\n</ul>\n\n2. 全球 AI 资本支出持续爆发\n\n<ul>\n<li>北美五大云端业者（Microsoft、AWS、Google、Meta、Oracle）持续扩建 AI 基础设施。</li>\n<li>2026 年资本支出估达 8,050 亿美元。</li>\n<li>2027 年有机会突破 1.1 兆美元。</li>\n<li>台湾拥有晶圆制造、封装测试、材料及系统整合完整供应链，可望持续受惠。</li>\n</ul>\n\n3. ETF 资金形成结构性支撑\n\n<ul>\n<li>台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元。</li>\n<li>今年增加逾 3 兆元。</li>\n<li>已形成长期稳定买盘来源。</li>\n<li>每次拉回均吸引资金进场承接。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、最新 AI 产业重要利多\n\n1. 美光看好记忆体缺货至 2028 年\n\n<ul>\n<li>AI 伺服器需求强劲推升 HBM 与 DRAM 需求。</li>\n<li>公司已签署 16 项长约，锁定未来 3～5 年订单。</li>\n<li>预期供需吃紧状况短期难解。</li>\n</ul>\n\n2. 高通积极布局 AI 资料中心\n\n<ul>\n<li>大幅上调 2029 年非手机业务目标。</li>\n<li>AI 加速器与资料中心晶片成长潜力庞大。</li>\n</ul>\n\n3. 日月光扩大资本支出\n\n<ul>\n<li>全年同步兴建 15 座新厂。</li>\n<li>管理层坦言产能仍供不应求。</li>\n<li>显示先进封装需求远超市场预期。</li>\n</ul>\n\n4. 联发科布局太空运算\n\n<ul>\n<li>提出「多重物理量设计」与太空 AI 运算概念。</li>\n<li>展现下一世代 AI 晶片发展方向。</li>\n</ul>\n\n5. 辉达机器人商机加速发酵\n\n<ul>\n<li>推出机器人安全平台 Halos。</li>\n<li>人形机器人正式进入商业化阶段。</li>\n<li>台厂能率、佳能等受惠题材持续升温。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、后市主流族群\n\n（一）缺货涨价概念股\n\n<ul>\n<li>记忆体：华邦电 (2344-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)</li>\n<li> 被动元件：国巨 (2327-TW)、华容 (5328-TW)、立隆电 (2472-TW)、九豪 (6127-TW)</li>\n<li>MCU、MOSFET、电源管理 IC</li>\n<li> 导线架、玻纤布与电子材料</li>\n</ul>\n\n（二）AI 高成长产业链\n\n<ul>\n<li>ASIC 客制化晶片</li>\n<li> PCB／CCL：联茂 (6213-TW)、腾辉电 (6672-TW)</li>\n<li>ABF 载板：欣兴 (3037-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)、景硕 (3189-TW)</li>\n<li>CPO 矽光子</li>\n<li>第三代半导体</li>\n<li>先进封装与设备：汉唐 (2404-TW)、亚翔 (6139-TW)</li>\n<li> 晶圆代工与高阶制造</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、投资策略与结论\n\n核心观察\n\n<ul>\n<li>外资偏空与高档震荡属短线干扰。</li>\n<li>AI 产业长线成长趋势并未改变。</li>\n<li>台湾供应链仍是全球 AI 军备竞赛最大受惠者。</li>\n</ul>\n\n操作建议\n\n<ol>\n<li>坚持「低接不追高」原则。</li>\n<li>聚焦 AI、记忆体、先进封装、ABF 载板及 PCB 等主流产业。</li>\n<li>利用震荡拉回分批布局。</li>\n<li>严格执行资金配置与停损纪律。</li>\n</ol>\n\n结论\n\n短线虽有外资卖超、期货空单攀升与涨多修正压力，但 AI 产业需求爆发、全球云端资本支出持续扩张、ETF 资金稳定流入等三大利多未变，台股中长期多头架构依然稳固，后续仍将维持「指数震荡、个股轮涨」格局，选对产业与个股仍是获利关键。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n外资期现货大开杀戒\n\n需要担心害怕吗？\n\n很多人看到的是帐面获利缩水\n\n甚至开始怀疑行情是否已结束\n\n但真正的赢家知道：\n\n✔急跌、往往是主力洗盘的过程\n\n✔修正、往往是下一波喷出的起点\n\n✔恐慌、往往是最好的布局时机\n\n回头看看过去几年\n\n当市场害怕时\n\n有人选择卖出\n\n当市场悲观时\n\n有人选择进场\n\n而最后真正赚到大波段的人\n\n往往都是在别人恐惧的时候勇敢布局\n\n如果你想知道：\n\n✔哪些股票可续抱？\n\n✔哪些股票该汰弱留强？\n\n✔七月黑马股谁将接棒？\n\n大师兄已提前规划好下一阶段的布局方向\n\n如果你希望在这波 AI 大行情中\n\n少走冤枉路、多赚关键财富\n\n欢迎加入我们的行列\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/6NjQmcKZ9uXHwWLL8\">https://forms.gle/6NjQmcKZ9uXHwWLL8</a>\n\n再者如果你有股票套牢了\n\n不晓得如何来处理或调整\n\n欢迎加 LINE 私讯大师兄\n\n留下你的姓名及连络电话\n\n大师兄情义相挺来助你一臂之力\n\n带你赢在起跑点上\n\n一个转念就可以改变你的一生\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"307\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3127035830618892\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/9cc22c96a58bf54511154371797f0174.jpg\" data-width=\"403\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/9cc22c96a58bf54511154371797f0174.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"288\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3993055555555556\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/c2aa21f82a50d29b7b9a9f9ca9d575cc.jpg\" data-width=\"403\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/c2aa21f82a50d29b7b9a9f9ca9d575cc.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"553\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.3743218806509945\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/1741689e93678fab03568f3682d6f1df.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/l/1741689e93678fab03568f3682d6f1df.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"277\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4693140794223827\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/6a2d1321678a282649e367e12f10a2c1.jpg\" data-width=\"407\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/6a2d1321678a282649e367e12f10a2c1.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/onHIPnoBGHs\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳\n\n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"541\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4048059149722736\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/m/04941f4e95807a70ad82624c21dc1cad.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6512240/l/04941f4e95807a70ad82624c21dc1cad.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4788.html\" title=\"强茂(2481-TW)、德微(3675-TW)、台半(5425-TW)三家台厂功率半导体IDM月营收怎么不同步，原来不是都只受惠转单效应\">强茂(2481-TW)、德微(3675-TW)、台半(5425-TW)三家台厂功率半导体IDM月营收怎么不同步，原来不是都只受惠转单效应</a></li>\n <li><a 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