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一、今日盘势重点

台股开高震荡走高，多头格局延续
- 加权指数终场上涨 893 点，收 47,018 点，稳站 10 日线与月线之上。
- 成交值约 1.3 兆元，量能温和放大，市场买盘持续回流。
- 技术面维持多头排列，短中期趋势仍偏正向。
短线震荡无碍中期多头
- 中东地缘政治风险仍需观察，但冲突降温、荷姆兹海峡恢复通行，有助国际油价回落。
- 油价回降可望舒缓全球通膨压力，降低美债殖利率攀升风险。
- 指数挑战 48,218 点前高过程中，震荡属正常整理，拉回仍可视为布局机会。

二、支撑台股中长线四大利多

1. AI 带动出口与企业获利同步成长

台湾 5 月外销订单创历年同期新高，经济部预估 6 月及下半年仍将维持强劲成长。
多家法人上调 2026 年上市柜企业获利成长率至 40% 以上，AI 仍是最大成长动能。

2. 全球 AI 资本支出持续大爆发

北美大型云端业者（CSP）未来三年 AI 资本支出持续创高。
AI 资料中心、GPU、自研 ASIC 及高功耗伺服器需求持续扩增，台湾完整 AI 供应链将持续受惠。

3. 台积电 (2330-TW) 法说行情可望续发酵

7 月 16 日法说会前，外资持续调高目标价。
市场预期毛利率有机会挑战 69%，先进制程、高阶封装及涨价效益可望带动下半年营运续强。

4. ETF 与内资形成结构性买盘

台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元，内资资金已成市场重要支撑。
即使近年外资持续卖超，台股仍持续创高，市场主导权逐步转向 ETF 及本土资金。

三、后市展望

经济面、产业面、资金面及技术面同步偏多。
AI 产业趋势持续扩散，加上企业获利成长支撑，台股中长线仍有挑战 5 万点，甚至 5.5 万至 6 万点的潜力。
短线若因国际事件或获利了结拉回，仍宜以逢低布局优质主流股为主。

四、盘面主流与投资方向

AI 仍是市场最大主轴

重点聚焦：

ASIC 设计
晶圆代工
CoWoS／先进封装
PCB／CCL／电子材料
ABF 载板
CPO 矽光子
记忆体
被动元件
MOSFET／二极体
封测
半导体设备
自动化设备
低轨卫星

此外，国防无人机采购法案推动，军工产业可望受政策利多带动，具短中期轮动机会。

五、操作策略

暂宜避开

估值偏高之高基期涨高股、或是破线转弱的股票。
譬如记忆体青云 (5386-TW)、广颖 (4973-TW)、华邦电 (2344-TW)、旺宏 (2337-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)、第三代半导体嘉晶 (3016-TW)、汉磊 (3707-TW)、触控面板 GIS-KY(6456-TW)、矽光子联亚 (3081-TW)、上诠 (3363-TW)、波若威 (3163-TW)、讯芯 - KY(6451-TW)、华星光 (4979-TW)、众达 - KY(4977-TW)… 等。

可持续留意

低基期、具转机爆发成长题材、以及有大人哥加持的好股。
譬如 ASIC 设计联发科 (2454-TW)、世芯 - KY(3661-TW)、资料中心纬颖 (6669-TW)、散热奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、被动元件华容 (5328-TW)、信昌电 (6173-TW)、凯美 (2375-TW)、二极体暨 MOSFET 富鼎 (8261-TW)、石英元件安碁 (6174-TW)、希华 (2484-TW)、LED 光鼎 (6226-TW)、特化三晃 (1721-TW)、东联 (1710-TW)、CoPoS 暨自动化设备蔚华科 (3055-TW)、科峤 (4542-TW)、联策 (6658-TW)、长广 (7795-TW)、均豪 (5443-TW)、牧德 (3653-TW)、家登 (3680-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、封测类股日月投 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、南茂 (8150-TW)、精材 (3374-TW)、低轨卫星中美晶 (5483-TW)、同欣电 (6271-TW)、以及军工股雷虎 (8033-TW)、长航太 (2645-TW)、亚航 (2630-TW)、事欣科 (4916-TW)… 等。

操作原则

低接、不追高。
优先布局量增突破且法人、主力同步买超个股。
以 10 日线及月线作为重要防守点，严守停损停利纪律。

整体而言，在 AI 长线成长趋势、企业获利持续上修、台积电法说行情、ETF 资金效应及多头技术架构支撑下，台股中长线偏多格局不变；短线震荡反而有利投资人分批布局具产业趋势与获利成长的主流族群。

有本事！就是事先讲

相信全市场只有大师兄

敢在上周五时事先预告

这是天上掉下来的礼物

本周将会是你

下一波大获利的起手式

不要等股价大涨之后

才后悔没有提早上车

今天师兄持续点石成金

满贯全垒打〝亮五颗灯〞

这就是领先市场的威力

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

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", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/l/ede1ad83f9dbebc0d6922964c6c57cdc.jpg", "content": "一、今日盘势重点\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/l/ede1ad83f9dbebc0d6922964c6c57cdc.jpg\" alt=\"惊为天人赞叹不已、长广⊕、均豪⊕、雷科⊕、中美晶⊕、家登⊕\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>台股开高震荡走高，多头格局延续\n\n<ul>\n<li>加权指数终场上涨 893 点，收 47,018 点，稳站 10 日线与月线之上。</li>\n<li>成交值约 1.3 兆元，量能温和放大，市场买盘持续回流。</li>\n<li>技术面维持多头排列，短中期趋势仍偏正向。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>短线震荡无碍中期多头\n<ul>\n<li>中东地缘政治风险仍需观察，但冲突降温、荷姆兹海峡恢复通行，有助国际油价回落。</li>\n<li>油价回降可望舒缓全球通膨压力，降低美债殖利率攀升风险。</li>\n<li>指数挑战 48,218 点前高过程中，震荡属正常整理，拉回仍可视为布局机会。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、支撑台股中长线四大利多\n\n1. AI 带动出口与企业获利同步成长\n\n<ul>\n<li>台湾 5 月外销订单创历年同期新高，经济部预估 6 月及下半年仍将维持强劲成长。</li>\n<li>多家法人上调 2026 年上市柜企业获利成长率至 40% 以上，AI 仍是最大成长动能。</li>\n</ul>\n\n2. 全球 AI 资本支出持续大爆发\n\n<ul>\n<li>北美大型云端业者（CSP）未来三年 AI 资本支出持续创高。</li>\n<li>AI 资料中心、GPU、自研 ASIC 及高功耗伺服器需求持续扩增，台湾完整 AI 供应链将持续受惠。</li>\n</ul>\n\n3. 台积电 (2330-TW) 法说行情可望续发酵\n\n<ul>\n<li>7 月 16 日法说会前，外资持续调高目标价。</li>\n<li>市场预期毛利率有机会挑战 69%，先进制程、高阶封装及涨价效益可望带动下半年营运续强。</li>\n</ul>\n\n4. ETF 与内资形成结构性买盘\n\n<ul>\n<li>台股 ETF 规模突破 7 兆元，内资资金已成市场重要支撑。</li>\n<li>即使近年外资持续卖超，台股仍持续创高，市场主导权逐步转向 ETF 及本土资金。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、后市展望\n\n<ul>\n<li>经济面、产业面、资金面及技术面同步偏多。</li>\n<li>AI 产业趋势持续扩散，加上企业获利成长支撑，台股中长线仍有挑战 5 万点，甚至 5.5 万至 6 万点的潜力。</li>\n<li>短线若因国际事件或获利了结拉回，仍宜以逢低布局优质主流股为主。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、盘面主流与投资方向\n\nAI 仍是市场最大主轴\n\n重点聚焦：\n\n<ul>\n<li>ASIC 设计</li>\n<li>晶圆代工</li>\n<li> CoWoS／先进封装</li>\n<li> PCB／CCL／电子材料</li>\n<li> ABF 载板</li>\n<li> CPO 矽光子</li>\n<li>记忆体</li>\n<li>被动元件</li>\n<li> MOSFET／二极体</li>\n<li>封测</li>\n<li>半导体设备</li>\n<li>自动化设备</li>\n<li>低轨卫星</li>\n</ul>\n\n此外，国防无人机采购法案推动，军工产业可望受政策利多带动，具短中期轮动机会。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、操作策略\n\n暂宜避开\n\n<ul>\n<li>估值偏高之高基期涨高股、或是破线转弱的股票。</li>\n<li>譬如记忆体青云 (5386-TW)、广颖 (4973-TW)、华邦电 (2344-TW)、旺宏 (2337-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)、第三代半导体嘉晶 (3016-TW)、汉磊 (3707-TW)、触控面板 GIS-KY(6456-TW)、矽光子联亚 (3081-TW)、上诠 (3363-TW)、波若威 (3163-TW)、讯芯 - KY(6451-TW)、华星光 (4979-TW)、众达 - KY(4977-TW)… 等。</li>\n</ul>\n\n可持续留意\n\n<ul>\n<li>低基期、具转机爆发成长题材、以及有大人哥加持的好股。</li>\n<li>譬如 ASIC 设计联发科 (2454-TW)、世芯 - KY(3661-TW)、资料中心纬颖 (6669-TW)、散热奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、被动元件华容 (5328-TW)、信昌电 (6173-TW)、凯美 (2375-TW)、二极体暨 MOSFET 富鼎 (8261-TW)、石英元件安碁 (6174-TW)、希华 (2484-TW)、LED 光鼎 (6226-TW)、特化三晃 (1721-TW)、东联 (1710-TW)、CoPoS 暨自动化设备蔚华科 (3055-TW)、科峤 (4542-TW)、联策 (6658-TW)、长广 (7795-TW)、均豪 (5443-TW)、牧德 (3653-TW)、家登 (3680-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、封测类股日月投 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、南茂 (8150-TW)、精材 (3374-TW)、低轨卫星中美晶 (5483-TW)、同欣电 (6271-TW)、以及军工股雷虎 (8033-TW)、长航太 (2645-TW)、亚航 (2630-TW)、事欣科 (4916-TW)… 等。</li>\n</ul>\n\n操作原则\n\n<ol>\n<li>低接、不追高。</li>\n<li>优先布局量增突破且法人、主力同步买超个股。</li>\n<li>以 10 日线及月线作为重要防守点，严守停损停利纪律。</li>\n</ol>\n\n整体而言，在 AI 长线成长趋势、企业获利持续上修、台积电法说行情、ETF 资金效应及多头技术架构支撑下，台股中长线偏多格局不变；短线震荡反而有利投资人分批布局具产业趋势与获利成长的主流族群。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n有本事！就是事先讲\n\n相信全市场只有大师兄\n\n敢在上周五时事先预告\n\n这是天上掉下来的礼物\n\n本周将会是你\n\n下一波大获利的起手式\n\n不要等股价大涨之后\n\n才后悔没有提早上车\n\n今天师兄持续点石成金\n\n满贯全垒打〝亮五颗灯〞\n\n这就是领先市场的威力\n\n下一档【神奇宝贝】请跟上\n\n越早卡位获利越惊人\n\n我们一起拚找回你的信心\n\n举手说这次你也要一起大赚\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78\">https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"308\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4155844155844155\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/cec4985b5fa8a1e2ebd7113323345f44.jpg\" data-width=\"436\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/cec4985b5fa8a1e2ebd7113323345f44.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"285\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4807017543859649\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/d0aaa584249a4fea0a3f4e6d54c4109b.jpg\" data-width=\"422\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/d0aaa584249a4fea0a3f4e6d54c4109b.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"299\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4046822742474916\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/88236d9a706f41a6a9b5dfba612e0121.jpg\" data-width=\"420\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/88236d9a706f41a6a9b5dfba612e0121.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"305\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.3737704918032787\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/f11d35924c755e14adc43a75d6d268c2.jpg\" data-width=\"419\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/f11d35924c755e14adc43a75d6d268c2.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"322\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.313664596273292\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/3210791bfc04db4f5fc40c3ecab08831.jpg\" data-width=\"423\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/3210791bfc04db4f5fc40c3ecab08831.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/nDoKh65tcKs\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳\n\n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"252\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4722222222222223\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/5619ff3b6918289684560713aeff6c1c.jpg\" data-width=\"371\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6519256/m/5619ff3b6918289684560713aeff6c1c.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12852.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - 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