跟对人、买对股!!长广⊕、中美晶、世芯⊕

一、今日盘势重点

加权指数开低震荡、守住多头架构
- 受 Meta 传出出售多余 AI 算力、美光及 SanDisk 重挫、费半大跌逾 6% 影响，台股早盘一度下跌逾 1,000 点。
- 终场下跌 274 点，收 46,744 点，成交量约 1 兆元，仍稳守 10 日线及月线之上，显示低接买盘积极承接。
OTC 柜买逆势翻红
- 柜买指数终场上涨 8.28 点，收 439.51 点。
- 成交量约 2,438 亿元，重新站回 10 日线，中小型股表现优于大型权值股。
量缩整理属健康换手
- 大盘量能缩减，市场追价转趋保守，但多头格局尚未遭到破坏。
- 指数震荡主要反映短线国际利空，而非基本面转弱。

二、后市展望

AI 长线成长趋势不变
- 美国科技巨擘持续上修 AI 资本支出，带动全球 AI 供应链需求持续升温。
- 台湾拥有完整半导体、封装、PCB、材料及系统整合供应链，仍是全球 AI 产业最大受惠者。
台积电 (2330-TW) 法说为重要催化剂
- 7 月 16 日法说会市场预期将释出 2 奈米、CoWoS、CoPoS、AI 需求及资本支出等正向展望，有望成为第三季行情的重要推升力量。
资金面持续有利
- 外资长线配置科技权值股需求仍在。
- ETF 定期定额及内资买盘提供下档支撑。
- 法人普遍看好台湾、日本及韩国第三季仍将受惠全球 AI 资金行情。

三、AI 产业最新趋势

全球 AI 资本支出持续爆发
- 北美五大 CSP（微软、AWS、Google、Meta、Oracle）今年资本支出估约 8,050 亿美元。
- 2027 年前可望突破 1.1 兆美元，AI 基础建设进入高速扩张期。
AI 供应链缺货与涨价效应延续
- 法人预估 2026 下半年起，PCB、CCL、IC 载板、WoS 基板、电源管理 IC、高阶光学元件等供应恐持续吃紧。
- 缺货可望带动价格调升，企业获利仍具上修空间。
CoWoS 仍为最大受惠领域
- 野村预估 2027 年辉达将占台积电 CoWoS 产能约 55%，Google TPU 需求同步大幅增加，AI 封装需求仍供不应求。
人形机器人成新成长题材
- 优必选推出新一代人形机器人，市场看好工业与消费应用逐步放量。
- 台湾感测器、马达控制、功率元件及机器人零组件供应链可望同步受惠。

四、族群操作方向

持续看好：

AI ASIC：世芯 (3661-TW)、创意 (3443-TW)。
AI 伺服器：纬颖 (6669-TW)。
散热：奇𬭎 (3017-TW)。
电源管理 IC：茂达 (6138-TW)。
PCB／CCL／高速连接器：联颖 (3550-TW)。
MOSFET 与二极体：富鼎 (8261-TW)、大中 (6435-TW)、强茂 (2481-TW)、台半 (5425-TW)、尼克森 (3317-TW)、捷敏 - KY(6525-TW)。
石英元件：希华 (2484-TW)、晶技 (3042-TW)。
半导体设备。
AI 检测设备。
机器人概念股。
AI 零组件及低基期转机股。

相对保守：

记忆体、被动元件等短线涨幅过大、评价偏高或技术面转弱个股，宜留意获利回吐风险。

五、投资策略

短线震荡仍视为中长期布局机会，重点仍在选股而非指数。
优先布局 AI 主流供应链、具产业竞争力及获利成长明确个股。
严守「低接、不追高」原则，避免追逐短线急涨股。
聚焦「量增突破＋法人、主力同步买超」个股。
以 10 日线及月线作为持股防守依据，做好资金控管。

在 AI 长线趋势、企业获利成长、资金行情及产业竞争优势支撑下，台股中长期多头架构仍未改变，后续仍有机会挑战更高指数区间。

基本面仍是台股最有力靠山
真正的赢家不是跟着情绪跑
而是在恐慌中找到黄金切入点
当强势股出现急跌修正
散户用情绪操作看到的都是恐惧
我看到的是积极抓绝佳进场机会
只要你依然认同
AI 是不可逆的大趋势
台股爆发好公司逢低布局的价值
现在正是资金从旧主流
转向新主流的重要时刻
本周将会是你
下一波大获利的起手式
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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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KY(6525-TW)。</li>\n<li>石英元件：希华 (2484-TW)、晶技 (3042-TW)。</li>\n<li>半导体设备。</li>\n<li>AI 检测设备。</li>\n<li>机器人概念股。</li>\n<li>AI 零组件及低基期转机股。</li>\n</ul>\n\n相对保守：\n\n<ul>\n<li>记忆体、被动元件等短线涨幅过大、评价偏高或技术面转弱个股，宜留意获利回吐风险。</li>\n</ul>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、投资策略\n\n<ol>\n<li>短线震荡仍视为中长期布局机会，重点仍在选股而非指数。</li>\n<li>优先布局 AI 主流供应链、具产业竞争力及获利成长明确个股。</li>\n<li>严守「低接、不追高」原则，避免追逐短线急涨股。</li>\n<li>聚焦「量增突破＋法人、主力同步买超」个股。</li>\n<li>以 10 日线及月线作为持股防守依据，做好资金控管。</li>\n</ol>\n\n在 AI 长线趋势、企业获利成长、资金行情及产业竞争优势支撑下，台股中长期多头架构仍未改变，后续仍有机会挑战更高指数区间。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n基本面仍是台股最有力靠山 \n真正的赢家不是跟着情绪跑 \n而是在恐慌中找到黄金切入点 \n当强势股出现急跌修正 \n散户用情绪操作看到的都是恐惧 \n我看到的是积极抓绝佳进场机会 \n只要你依然认同 \nAI 是不可逆的大趋势 \n台股爆发好公司逢低布局的价值 \n现在正是资金从旧主流 \n转向新主流的重要时刻 \n本周将会是你 \n下一波大获利的起手式 \n不要等股价大涨后 \n才后悔没有提早上车 \n越早卡位获利越惊人 \n我们一起拚找回你的信心 \n举手说这次你也要一起大赚\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78\">https://forms.gle/82PcvrqF61eFWnv78</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"283\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.547703180212014\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/0b263d40255d0140ba8261d34561f8c9.jpg\" data-width=\"438\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/0b263d40255d0140ba8261d34561f8c9.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"286\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.506993006993007\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/f820a457a0139bc33c387a93bfabf876.jpg\" data-width=\"431\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/f820a457a0139bc33c387a93bfabf876.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"308\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3993506493506493\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/c7b255003fbfd38e7f465e9debaca94d.jpg\" data-width=\"431\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/c7b255003fbfd38e7f465e9debaca94d.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"292\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.476027397260274\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/adb564d88ecc3c455850100b307943fb.jpg\" data-width=\"431\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/adb564d88ecc3c455850100b307943fb.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/SJVRL41KXDg\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！ \n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族 \nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a> \nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a> \nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a> \n举手之劳 \n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛 \n让更多人可以看见我们的影片 \n咨询专线 : 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"520\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4615384615384615\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/m/063bbae4da045b696f0c3b3e14ffa842.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6520724/l/063bbae4da045b696f0c3b3e14ffa842.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9012.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - 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