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"description": "集邦：AI 激励日韩 MLCC 大厂 BB 值创疫后新高 台厂可望迎外溢转单",
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"content": "<p>研调机构集邦 (TrendForce) 发布最新 MLCC 产业研究指出，AI 高阶 MLCC 激励日韩大厂订单出货比创疫情后新高，不仅导致缺货风险提升，排挤效应已外溢至车用与消费规市场，第三季台系、陆系供应商如国巨 (2327-TW)、华新科 (2492-TW) 与微容科技等，有机会取得外溢的消费规中高容 X5R 订单。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524007/l/84cbe5308d9cc4e082db8955d2c5ea12.jpg\" alt=\"TrendForce：日韩被动元件大厂BB值创疫后新高 台厂可望迎外溢转单\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>TrendForce 表示，AI 伺服器加速换代、云端服务供应商 (CSP) 自研 ASIC 晶片持续放量的双重驱动下，村田制作所 (Murata)、三星电机 (Samsung Electro-Mechanics)、太阳诱电(Taiyo Yuden) 等三大日韩龙头厂商 2026 年 6 月下旬 BB Ratio(订单出货比) 创 COVID-19 疫情后新高，分别达 1.30、1.31、1.25，整体 MLCC 市场 BB Ratio 也同步升至 1.04。</p>\n\n<p>值得留意的是，Murata 的 2026 年第一季财报显示，其 Orders/Backlog Ratio(订单 / 积案比) 已达 1.27，超越 2018 年 MLCC 史上最严重缺货开端的 1.25 峰值，显示订单积压压力正快速积聚，供给短缺风险持续升高。</p>\n\n<p>TrendForce 表示，MLCC 需求维持明显结构分化，高利率环境持续压抑消费者购买力，导致手机、笔电终端需求疲弱。此外，因 Intel、AMD 侧重 CPU 产能给 AI 应用，影响传统 PC 备货，ODM 被迫以急单追料，材料成本不断攀升。反观 AI server 端，由于 Google TPU、AWS Trainium、Meta MTIA 等自研 ASIC 平台持续放量，带动高容值、低电压、小尺寸 MLCC 需求快速升温。</p>\n\n<p>此外，AI 高阶 MLCC 排挤效应已外溢至车用与消费规市场，苹果 (Apple) 供应链备料较往年提前 1-2 个月启动，车用 ODM 亦从以往的 7 月提前至 5 月展开备料，反映出市场对下半年供货短缺的疑虑加剧。中国大陆通路市场自 6 月起对主流消费规 MLCC X5R 启动调涨，平均涨幅达 15% 至 25%，进一步加深市场恐慌情绪。</p>\n\n<p>观察 2026 下半年 MLCC 市况，随着辉达 (NVIDIA)(NVDA-US)、Google、AMD 等新款 AI 晶片平台于第三季陆续进入量产，产能持续由 AI 订单占用，再加上超前备货等双重需求，下半年交期延长、高阶 MLCC 价格走扬机率上升，预料第四季将是观察高阶 MLCC 市场是否正式转向缺货的关键期。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12592.html\" title=\"〈富邦金法说〉韩蔚廷：北富银上半年AI、半导体放款增逾2成 荣景看至明年H1\">〈富邦金法说〉韩蔚廷：北富银上半年AI、半导体放款增逾2成 荣景看至明年H1</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14520.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 欣普罗(6560)8月营收1,110万元年增率高达461.32％\">营收速报 - 欣普罗(6560)8月营收1,110万元年增率高达461.32％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14617.html\" title=\"安谋催生实体AI生态系 慧友跻身合作伙伴抢攻2000亿美元运算商机\">安谋催生实体AI生态系 慧友跻身合作伙伴抢攻2000亿美元运算商机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-22712.html\" title=\"美股乱流引发台股卖压 法人仍看好中长期基本面支撑、留意个股分化趋势\">美股乱流引发台股卖压 法人仍看好中长期基本面支撑、留意个股分化趋势</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-20260.html\" title=\"5万点很快就会来？金像电、建荣、国巨、矽力-ky⊕\">5万点很快就会来？金像电、建荣、国巨、矽力-ky⊕</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4449.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：新日兴(3376-TW)目标价调降至286元，幅度约4.67%\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：新日兴(3376-TW)目标价调降至286元，幅度约4.67%</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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"createdAt": "2026-07-06T09:24:37.000Z",
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