野村投信：2026年下半年台股展望 AI驱动基本面续强　留意通膨与地缘政治变数

野村投信指出，2026 年下半年全球市场仍受地缘政治与通膨影响，波动难免，但在企业获利上修与科技需求强劲带动下，台股中长期基本面维持正向，AI 供应链仍为成长核心主轴。

野村投信国内股票投资部主管姚郁如表示，美伊冲突透过油价影响通膨与货币政策，联准会预计维持审慎偏紧缩立场，不排除升息，但市场已逐步消化风险，后续仍将回归基本面。台湾经济方面，2026 年 GDP 成长率上修至约 9.6%，显示在非低基期下仍具成长动能；外销订单稳健，电子与资通讯需求强劲，出口动能延续，加上通膨温和、利率稳定，有利企业与资本市场发展。企业获利预估成长上修至四成以上，成为台股重要支撑。投资策略建议聚焦高门槛与具升级能力企业，逢低布局。

姚郁如进一步指出，产业面则由 AI 领军，AI 伺服器与高效能运算需求持续扩大，云端业者资本支出增加，带动台湾供应链全面成长，并延伸至关键零组件。技术上，散热由气冷转向液冷，提升效率并降低能耗；电源与 MLCC 因高压与新架构需求同步成长。AI 伺服器电源朝 800V 高压发展，2026 年导入、2027 年渗透率提升，推升供应链价值。PCB 与 CCL 朝高阶材料与高速发展，ASIC 成为主要动能之一；记忆体虽受 HBM 需求带动，但能否形成长期结构性成长仍待观察。

至于非科技产业，结构性机会来自 AI 带动电力需求，推升重电与基础建设；2026 年世足赛将带动消费与品牌需求，加上库存回补效应，成衣与制鞋等低基期族群具成长空间。

姚郁如指出，2026 年下半年观察重点，建议聚焦三大方向：第一，地缘政治与油价波动对通膨与货币政策的影响；第二，美国联准会利率政策变化及全球资金流向；第三，AI 资本支出是否延续强劲动能，特别是云端服务商投资计划与产业供应链接单状况。

因此，建议投资应聚焦长期趋势向上产业，科技类股以半导体、AI、高速运算及关键零组件（如散热、电源、电容与 PCB）为核心；非科技产业则建议关注低基期、低库存族群。尽管短期波动仍在，但在产业升级与获利成长支撑下，台股长期仍具上行潜力，建议投资人把握产业成长主轴，在震荡中布局具竞争优势及成长确定性的标的。

本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。

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野村投信
野村投信于 1998 年成立，为日商野村资产管理及香港 Allshores 集团等专业投资团队所组成之合资企业。野村投信为高盛、晋达、野村基金 (爱尔兰系列) 及骏利亨德森系列基金在台湾之总代理。截至 2025 年 12 月底，投信基金、境内全权委托与境外基金总代理在台规模共计新台币 9,638 亿元，居所有台湾资产管理业 (基金) 公司第 8 名。野村投信六度荣获亚洲资产管理杂志台湾区最佳退休基金管理公司 (2018~2020，2024~2026)，以及五度获最佳股票经理公司肯定 (2020~2023，2026)；于 2014、2015、2016 及 2017 连续四年荣获理柏台湾基金奖混合型团体大奖肯定。(资料来源：投信投顾公会 (2025/12)；理柏 (2014~2017)；亚洲资产管理杂志 (2026/01))

本基金经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书。有关基金应负担之费用已揭露于基金公开说明书，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书，投资人亦可至公开资讯观测站中查询。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。
本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。定时定额投资人因不同时间进场，将有不同之投资绩效，过去之绩效亦不代表未来绩效之保证。
文中所提个股仅为事件说明，非为个股推荐。投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。本资料系整理分析各方面资讯之结果，纯属参考性质，本公司不作任何保证或承诺，请勿将本内容视为对个别投资人做基金买卖或其他任何投资之建议或要约。本公司已力求其中资讯之正确与完整，惟不保证本报告绝对正确无误。未经授权不得复制、修改或散发引用。
野村投信为高盛、晋达、野村基金 (爱尔兰系列) 及骏利亨德森系列基金在台湾之总代理。【野村投信独立经营管理】
野村证券投资信托股份有限公司，110615 台北市信义路五段 7 号 30 楼，理财咨询专线 02-8758-1568

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9.6%，显示在非低基期下仍具成长动能；外销订单稳健，电子与资通讯需求强劲，出口动能延续，加上通膨温和、利率稳定，有利企", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521926/l/86d011b89db604ad2ce8600b951c3b8b.jpg", "content": "野村投信指出，2026 年下半年全球市场仍受地缘政治与通膨影响，波动难免，但在企业获利上修与科技需求强劲带动下，台股中长期基本面维持正向，AI 供应链仍为成长核心主轴。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521926/l/86d011b89db604ad2ce8600b951c3b8b.jpg\" alt=\"野村投信：2026年下半年台股展望 AI驱动基本面续强　留意通膨与地缘政治变数\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n野村投信国内股票投资部主管姚郁如表示，美伊冲突透过油价影响通膨与货币政策，联准会预计维持审慎偏紧缩立场，不排除升息，但市场已逐步消化风险，后续仍将回归基本面。台湾经济方面，2026 年 GDP 成长率上修至约 9.6%，显示在非低基期下仍具成长动能；外销订单稳健，电子与资通讯需求强劲，出口动能延续，加上通膨温和、利率稳定，有利企业与资本市场发展。企业获利预估成长上修至四成以上，成为台股重要支撑。投资策略建议聚焦高门槛与具升级能力企业，逢低布局。\n\n姚郁如进一步指出，产业面则由 AI 领军，AI 伺服器与高效能运算需求持续扩大，云端业者资本支出增加，带动台湾供应链全面成长，并延伸至关键零组件。技术上，散热由气冷转向液冷，提升效率并降低能耗；电源与 MLCC 因高压与新架构需求同步成长。AI 伺服器电源朝 800V 高压发展，2026 年导入、2027 年渗透率提升，推升供应链价值。PCB 与 CCL 朝高阶材料与高速发展，ASIC 成为主要动能之一；记忆体虽受 HBM 需求带动，但能否形成长期结构性成长仍待观察。\n\n至于非科技产业，结构性机会来自 AI 带动电力需求，推升重电与基础建设；2026 年世足赛将带动消费与品牌需求，加上库存回补效应，成衣与制鞋等低基期族群具成长空间。\n\n姚郁如指出，2026 年下半年观察重点，建议聚焦三大方向：第一，地缘政治与油价波动对通膨与货币政策的影响；第二，美国联准会利率政策变化及全球资金流向；第三，AI 资本支出是否延续强劲动能，特别是云端服务商投资计划与产业供应链接单状况。\n\n因此，建议投资应聚焦长期趋势向上产业，科技类股以半导体、AI、高速运算及关键零组件（如散热、电源、电容与 PCB）为核心；非科技产业则建议关注低基期、低库存族群。尽管短期波动仍在，但在产业升级与获利成长支撑下，台股长期仍具上行潜力，建议投资人把握产业成长主轴，在震荡中布局具竞争优势及成长确定性的标的。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"503\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.510934393638171\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521926/m/a508174ba8f4953e9add795e9a2d7bcb.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521926/l/a508174ba8f4953e9add795e9a2d7bcb.jpg\"></figure>\n\n本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。\n\n<a href=\"https://money.nomurafunds.com.tw/articles.html?c=8&utm_source=cnYES&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=Campaignsite&utm_content=articles\">阅读更多精彩文章</a>\n\n【野村投信赞助刊登】\n\n野村投信 \n野村投信于 1998 年成立，为日商野村资产管理及香港 Allshores 集团等专业投资团队所组成之合资企业。野村投信为高盛、晋达、野村基金 (爱尔兰系列) 及骏利亨德森系列基金在台湾之总代理。截至 2025 年 12 月底，投信基金、境内全权委托与境外基金总代理在台规模共计新台币 9,638 亿元，居所有台湾资产管理业 (基金) 公司第 8 名。野村投信六度荣获亚洲资产管理杂志台湾区最佳退休基金管理公司 (2018~2020，2024~2026)，以及五度获最佳股票经理公司肯定 (2020~2023，2026)；于 2014、2015、2016 及 2017 连续四年荣获理柏台湾基金奖混合型团体大奖肯定。(资料来源：投信投顾公会 (2025/12)；理柏 (2014~2017)；亚洲资产管理杂志 (2026/01))\n\n本基金经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书。有关基金应负担之费用已揭露于基金公开说明书，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书，投资人亦可至公开资讯观测站中查询。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。 \n本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。定时定额投资人因不同时间进场，将有不同之投资绩效，过去之绩效亦不代表未来绩效之保证。 \n文中所提个股仅为事件说明，非为个股推荐。投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。本资料系整理分析各方面资讯之结果，纯属参考性质，本公司不作任何保证或承诺，请勿将本内容视为对个别投资人做基金买卖或其他任何投资之建议或要约。本公司已力求其中资讯之正确与完整，惟不保证本报告绝对正确无误。未经授权不得复制、修改或散发引用。 \n野村投信为高盛、晋达、野村基金 (爱尔兰系列) 及骏利亨德森系列基金在台湾之总代理。【野村投信独立经营管理】 \n野村证券投资信托股份有限公司，110615 台北市信义路五段 7 号 30 楼，理财咨询专线 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"createdAt": "2026-07-08T05:44:14.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-18T06:58:50.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", 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