【量大强涨股整理】【台积电】大斗ASML！「设备涨价」股价会崩吗？破解晶圆霸主拒绝买单的背后真相！

【台积电】大斗 ASML！「设备涨价」股价会崩吗？破解晶圆霸主拒绝买单的背后真相！

影片中分享给你知道
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再来看一下今天的台股!

加权指数今日开低走高，终场下跌 6.61 点，收在 45624.98，成交量 9008.39 亿。

观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 483.34 亿元，投信买超 85.49 亿元，自营商卖超 33.57 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 431.43 亿元，其中，外资自营商连卖十日，自营商由买转卖，投信则连买十七日共买超 1735.75 亿元。

美股涨跌互见，美国 6 月核心生产者物价指数 PPI 年增 4.7%，低于市场预期，显示通膨压力持续降温，目前利率期货市场仍预估今年降息一次，但时间点已延后至 12 月，进一步缓解市场对联准会货币政策转向的担忧；道琼工业指数，上涨 150 点，那斯达克指数，上涨 162 点，不过半导体族群表现疲弱，费城半导体指数，下跌逾 2%，市场焦点转向中国记忆体产业发展，长鑫存储（CXMT）传出即将上市，并计划透过募资扩大产能，引发市场对全球记忆体供给增加、价格竞争升温及毛利率承压的疑虑，(MU-US) 美光科技，(SKHY-US)SK 海力士，与 (SNDK-US)SanDisk，股价同步重挫逾 8%，拖累整体半导体类股走势；(AAPL-US) 苹果、(MSFT-US) 微软，等大型科技股表现相对稳定，但 (NVDA-US) 辉达、(AMD-US) 超微，等 AI 概念股涨势收敛。

受到美股半导体股回档及亚洲股市走弱影响，台股今日开盘承压，一度重挫超过 600 点，电子权值股全面走低，记忆体、ABF 载板、面板及矽晶圆族群同步回档，包括 (2408-TW) 南亚科，(3037-TW) 欣兴，(8046-TW) 南电，(3481-TW) 群创，(2409-TW) 友达，(6488-TW) 环球晶，及 (3532-TW) 台胜科，盘中表现相对疲弱，不过随着低接买盘进场，指数盘中快速收敛跌幅甚至一度翻红，终场下跌 6.61 点，收在 45624.98，成交量 9008.39 亿，显示市场下档承接力道仍在，多方架构并未遭到破坏，盘面资金则转向具题材与防御性的族群，(6770-TW) 力积电，受惠法说会释出成熟制程价格调涨、毛利率改善等利多，股价逆势走扬，成为半导体族群焦点，另一方面，电信、自行车、高殖利率概念股也获得避险资金青睐，反映市场资金持续轮动，而非全面撤出股市，短线震荡主要来自法说会前市场观望情绪，而非企业基本面出现重大改变，因此整理过后仍有机会重回多头轨道，本周还有多项重要事件牵动市场，包括美国首次申请失业救济人数、6 月零售销售数据及密西根大学消费者信心指数，将进一步影响市场对联准会降息时程的预期，此外 7 月 16 日至 19 日举行的亚洲生技大展，也可望带动生技医疗族群表现，成为盘面另一波资金轮动焦点。

整体而言，目前 AI 长线需求并未改变，企业资本支出仍持续扩大，市场多头基调依旧稳固，受惠 AI 伺服器、高效能运算 HPC 及半导体需求持续升温，上市柜公司 6 月合并营收达 5.83 兆元，月增 6.81%、年增 46.62%，改写单月历史新高，第二季营收 16.73 兆元、上半年累计 31.05 兆元，同步刷新历史纪录，6 月共有 189 家公司营收创新高，153 家公司年增逾倍，显示企业获利动能持续增强，以产业表现来看，电子通路、百货及电子类股年增幅居前三，反映 AI 需求已由晶片扩散至供应链各环节，法人指出台湾出口维持强劲成长，下半年在 AI 资本支出持续扩大、先进制程及 AI 伺服器需求带动下，电子股仍是市场主轴，金融与传产获利也有望同步改善， 操作策略建议维持震荡偏多看法，把握盘中拉回时逢低分批布局 AI、高阶半导体、记忆体、机器人、军工、被动元件及高殖利率等基本面成长族群，避免追价短线涨幅过大的个股，耐心等待法说会后资金重新回流主流电子股。

权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，上涨 1.23%，收在 2470 元，于法说会释出乐观展望，董事长魏哲家表示，受惠 AI 需求持续强劲，将 2026 年全年美元营收成长预估由原先的「超过 30%」上修至「略高于 40%」，优于市场预期，魏哲家指出，AI 运算、资料中心及先进制程需求持续升温，来自大型云端服务供应商及终端客户的订单动能依旧强劲，对未来数年 AI 市场成长维持高度信心，此次上调全年财测，反映 AI 加速器、3 奈米、2 奈米及先进封装需求持续超乎预期，也进一步巩固台积电在全球晶圆代工市场的领先地位，市场看好将持续带动半导体供应链受惠。

(2317-TW) 鸿海，上涨 1.46%，收在 242.5 元，第二季营收达 2.51 兆元，季增 19%、年增 40%，创历年同期新高，优于市场预期，显示 AI 伺服器与高附加价值产品持续推升营运动能，法人认为，虽然辉达 Kyber 平台传出延后至 2028 年推出，但不影响 AI 伺服器长期需求展望，另一方面，下半年折叠 iPhone 量产进度、出货规模及初期毛利率，将成为影响获利的重要关键，仍看好 AI 基础建设需求持续成长，预估 2026、2027 年每股盈余将优于市场共识 ；

(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 1.07%，收在 3700 元，6 月营收达 580 亿元，月增 22%、年增 3%，带动第二季营收达 1,520 亿元，季增 2%，优于公司财测及市场预期，主要受惠 AI ASIC 晶片提前放量，推升营收表现优于预估，展望后市，预期第三季营收可望季增约 10%，AI ASIC 仍是主要成长动能，不过，随市场已提前反映 AI 题材，股价评价偏高，联发科第二季获利仍有上修空间，但后续仍须观察 AI ASIC 实际出货速度与营收贡献，是否持续优于市场预期。

2026.5.10 经济日报领先预告 (3374-TW) 精材

(3374-TW) 精材，212.5=>418，领先预告后 +96%，
精材受惠晶圆测试业务持续扩张，2026 年营运展望维持正向，第四季虽受 3D 感测器改版影响部分营收，但测试新产能挹注下，毛利率提升至 32.8%，每股纯益达 1.89 元，优于市场预期，展望今年，测试新厂将持续贡献营收，预计年底测试产能较去年增加约 50%，下半年在旺季效应带动下，毛利率可望优于上半年，虽然大幅扩产将推升折旧费用，但法人仍看好全年获利成长，预估 EPS 达 7.34 元。

2026.5.22 经济日报领先预告 (2484-TW) 希华

石英元件厂 (2484-TW) 希华，48.45=>89.6，领先预告后 +84%，
希华为国内重要石英晶体与石英振荡器供应商，产品广泛应用于通讯设备、网通产品及消费性电子市场，受惠于 AI 伺服器、高速传输及终端电子产品需求回温，公司近期营运表现明显改善，最新单月营收创下近 42 个月新高，展现接单动能回升迹象，市场看好石英元件在高速运算与通讯应用中的需求持续增长，加上法人近期偏多布局，推升股价维持强势表现，随着产业景气逐步复苏及订单能见度提升，市场对希华下半年营收与获利成长抱持乐观期待，吸引资金持续关注。

欢迎免费订阅
股市期皇后庄佳萤

https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

7/16

强势股分享

【上市量大上涨股】

(1517-TW) 利奇

(9921-TW) 巨大

(6243-TW) 迅杰

(2484-TW) 希华

(2434-TW) 统懋

(6141-TW) 柏承

(6937-TW) 天虹

(6505-TW) 台塑化

(8028-TW) 升阳半导体

(3413-TW) 京鼎

(5434-TW) 崇越

(5306-TW) 桂盟

(1515-TW) 力山

(8150-TW) 南茂

(1539-TW) 巨庭

(1232-TW) 大统益

7/16

强势股分享

【上柜量大上涨股】

(2221-TW) 大甲

(4939-TW) 亚电

(3491-TW) 升达科

(3339-TW) 泰谷

(4707-TW) 磐亚

(6175-TW) 立敦

(3264-TW) 欣铨

(3498-TW) 阳程

(3441-TW) 联一光

(4707-TW) 磐亚

庄佳萤分析师:
每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!

股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤

LINE 官方帐号
LINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)
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https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

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FB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】

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文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师

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亿元。美股涨", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/3aaa27430f6a8989fbd0f9e7cc7220f8.jpg", "content": "【台积电】大斗 ASML！「设备涨价」股价会崩吗？破解晶圆霸主拒绝买单的背后真相！\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/3aaa27430f6a8989fbd0f9e7cc7220f8.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】【台积电】大斗ASML！「设备涨价」股价会崩吗？破解晶圆霸主拒绝买单的背后真相！\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/7JUywn7Z1wo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n影片中分享给你知道 \n（按赞订阅打开小铃铛） \n再来看一下今天的台股!\n\n加权指数今日开低走高，终场下跌 6.61 点，收在 45624.98，成交量 9008.39 亿。\n\n观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 483.34 亿元，投信买超 85.49 亿元，自营商卖超 33.57 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 431.43 亿元，其中，外资自营商连卖十日，自营商由买转卖，投信则连买十七日共买超 1735.75 亿元。\n\n美股涨跌互见，美国 6 月核心生产者物价指数 PPI 年增 4.7%，低于市场预期，显示通膨压力持续降温，目前利率期货市场仍预估今年降息一次，但时间点已延后至 12 月，进一步缓解市场对联准会货币政策转向的担忧；道琼工业指数，上涨 150 点，那斯达克指数，上涨 162 点，不过半导体族群表现疲弱，费城半导体指数，下跌逾 2%，市场焦点转向中国记忆体产业发展，长鑫存储（CXMT）传出即将上市，并计划透过募资扩大产能，引发市场对全球记忆体供给增加、价格竞争升温及毛利率承压的疑虑，(MU-US) 美光科技，(SKHY-US)SK 海力士，与 (SNDK-US)SanDisk，股价同步重挫逾 8%，拖累整体半导体类股走势；(AAPL-US) 苹果、(MSFT-US) 微软，等大型科技股表现相对稳定，但 (NVDA-US) 辉达、(AMD-US) 超微，等 AI 概念股涨势收敛。\n\n受到美股半导体股回档及亚洲股市走弱影响，台股今日开盘承压，一度重挫超过 600 点，电子权值股全面走低，记忆体、ABF 载板、面板及矽晶圆族群同步回档，包括 (2408-TW) 南亚科，(3037-TW) 欣兴，(8046-TW) 南电，(3481-TW) 群创，(2409-TW) 友达，(6488-TW) 环球晶，及 (3532-TW) 台胜科，盘中表现相对疲弱，不过随着低接买盘进场，指数盘中快速收敛跌幅甚至一度翻红，终场下跌 6.61 点，收在 45624.98，成交量 9008.39 亿，显示市场下档承接力道仍在，多方架构并未遭到破坏，盘面资金则转向具题材与防御性的族群，(6770-TW) 力积电，受惠法说会释出成熟制程价格调涨、毛利率改善等利多，股价逆势走扬，成为半导体族群焦点，另一方面，电信、自行车、高殖利率概念股也获得避险资金青睐，反映市场资金持续轮动，而非全面撤出股市，短线震荡主要来自法说会前市场观望情绪，而非企业基本面出现重大改变，因此整理过后仍有机会重回多头轨道，本周还有多项重要事件牵动市场，包括美国首次申请失业救济人数、6 月零售销售数据及密西根大学消费者信心指数，将进一步影响市场对联准会降息时程的预期，此外 7 月 16 日至 19 日举行的亚洲生技大展，也可望带动生技医疗族群表现，成为盘面另一波资金轮动焦点。\n\n整体而言，目前 AI 长线需求并未改变，企业资本支出仍持续扩大，市场多头基调依旧稳固，受惠 AI 伺服器、高效能运算 HPC 及半导体需求持续升温，上市柜公司 6 月合并营收达 5.83 兆元，月增 6.81%、年增 46.62%，改写单月历史新高，第二季营收 16.73 兆元、上半年累计 31.05 兆元，同步刷新历史纪录，6 月共有 189 家公司营收创新高，153 家公司年增逾倍，显示企业获利动能持续增强，以产业表现来看，电子通路、百货及电子类股年增幅居前三，反映 AI 需求已由晶片扩散至供应链各环节，法人指出台湾出口维持强劲成长，下半年在 AI 资本支出持续扩大、先进制程及 AI 伺服器需求带动下，电子股仍是市场主轴，金融与传产获利也有望同步改善， 操作策略建议维持震荡偏多看法，把握盘中拉回时逢低分批布局 AI、高阶半导体、记忆体、机器人、军工、被动元件及高殖利率等基本面成长族群，避免追价短线涨幅过大的个股，耐心等待法说会后资金重新回流主流电子股。\n\n权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，上涨 1.23%，收在 2470 元，于法说会释出乐观展望，董事长魏哲家表示，受惠 AI 需求持续强劲，将 2026 年全年美元营收成长预估由原先的「超过 30%」上修至「略高于 40%」，优于市场预期，魏哲家指出，AI 运算、资料中心及先进制程需求持续升温，来自大型云端服务供应商及终端客户的订单动能依旧强劲，对未来数年 AI 市场成长维持高度信心，此次上调全年财测，反映 AI 加速器、3 奈米、2 奈米及先进封装需求持续超乎预期，也进一步巩固台积电在全球晶圆代工市场的领先地位，市场看好将持续带动半导体供应链受惠。 \n\n(2317-TW) 鸿海，上涨 1.46%，收在 242.5 元，第二季营收达 2.51 兆元，季增 19%、年增 40%，创历年同期新高，优于市场预期，显示 AI 伺服器与高附加价值产品持续推升营运动能，法人认为，虽然辉达 Kyber 平台传出延后至 2028 年推出，但不影响 AI 伺服器长期需求展望，另一方面，下半年折叠 iPhone 量产进度、出货规模及初期毛利率，将成为影响获利的重要关键，仍看好 AI 基础建设需求持续成长，预估 2026、2027 年每股盈余将优于市场共识 ；\n\n(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 1.07%，收在 3700 元，6 月营收达 580 亿元，月增 22%、年增 3%，带动第二季营收达 1,520 亿元，季增 2%，优于公司财测及市场预期，主要受惠 AI ASIC 晶片提前放量，推升营收表现优于预估，展望后市，预期第三季营收可望季增约 10%，AI ASIC 仍是主要成长动能，不过，随市场已提前反映 AI 题材，股价评价偏高，联发科第二季获利仍有上修空间，但后续仍须观察 AI ASIC 实际出货速度与营收贡献，是否持续优于市场预期。 \n\n2026.5.10 经济日报领先预告 (3374-TW) 精材\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"363\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5261707988980717\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/1b0b34ed1780a8958da08808c67e8089.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/1b0b34ed1780a8958da08808c67e8089.jpg\"></figure>\n\n(3374-TW) 精材，212.5=>418，领先预告后 +96%， \n精材受惠晶圆测试业务持续扩张，2026 年营运展望维持正向，第四季虽受 3D 感测器改版影响部分营收，但测试新产能挹注下，毛利率提升至 32.8%，每股纯益达 1.89 元，优于市场预期，展望今年，测试新厂将持续贡献营收，预计年底测试产能较去年增加约 50%，下半年在旺季效应带动下，毛利率可望优于上半年，虽然大幅扩产将推升折旧费用，但法人仍看好全年获利成长，预估 EPS 达 7.34 元。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"368\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5054347826086956\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/ae5791073a0af6dd2bac681a816c0da4.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/ae5791073a0af6dd2bac681a816c0da4.jpg\"></figure>\n\n2026.5.22 经济日报领先预告 (2484-TW) 希华\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"367\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5095367847411445\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/6381581fe7a5d04063c088766148c176.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/6381581fe7a5d04063c088766148c176.jpg\"></figure>\n\n石英元件厂 (2484-TW) 希华，48.45=>89.6，领先预告后 +84%， \n希华为国内重要石英晶体与石英振荡器供应商，产品广泛应用于通讯设备、网通产品及消费性电子市场，受惠于 AI 伺服器、高速传输及终端电子产品需求回温，公司近期营运表现明显改善，最新单月营收创下近 42 个月新高，展现接单动能回升迹象，市场看好石英元件在高速运算与通讯应用中的需求持续增长，加上法人近期偏多布局，推升股价维持强势表现，随着产业景气逐步复苏及订单能见度提升，市场对希华下半年营收与获利成长抱持乐观期待，吸引资金持续关注。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"388\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.4278350515463918\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/510feede55ebe736ef1ee9e75950db11.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/510feede55ebe736ef1ee9e75950db11.jpg\"></figure>\n\n欢迎免费订阅 \n股市期皇后庄佳萤\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\n7/16\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上市量大上涨股】\n\n(1517-TW) 利奇\n\n(9921-TW) 巨大\n\n(6243-TW) 迅杰\n\n(2484-TW) 希华\n\n(2434-TW) 统懋\n\n(6141-TW) 柏承\n\n(6937-TW) 天虹\n\n(6505-TW) 台塑化\n\n(8028-TW) 升阳半导体\n\n(3413-TW) 京鼎\n\n(5434-TW) 崇越\n\n(5306-TW) 桂盟\n\n(1515-TW) 力山\n\n(8150-TW) 南茂\n\n(1539-TW) 巨庭\n\n(1232-TW) 大统益\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"498\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.1124497991967872\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/a67b8c0585917a7eba3247e39a230090.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/a67b8c0585917a7eba3247e39a230090.jpg\"></figure>\n\n7/16\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上柜量大上涨股】\n\n(2221-TW) 大甲\n\n(4939-TW) 亚电\n\n(3491-TW) 升达科\n\n(3339-TW) 泰谷\n\n(4707-TW) 磐亚\n\n(6175-TW) 立敦\n\n(3264-TW) 欣铨\n\n(3498-TW) 阳程\n\n(3441-TW) 联一光\n\n(4707-TW) 磐亚\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"498\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.1124497991967872\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/05e0ac37bf4f502f2dc92804232d2bd7.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/05e0ac37bf4f502f2dc92804232d2bd7.jpg\"></figure>\n\n庄佳萤分析师: \n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!\n\n股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤\n\nLINE 官方帐号 \nLINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略) \n或是点击下方网址加入 \n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\nYoutube 影音频道精彩解盘影片不容错过! \n(记得按赞，订阅并打开小铃铛)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/lnLmKx3dlUo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\nFB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】\n\n<a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"361\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4155124653739612\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/m/0afd03f8486888f762984fbf00297ef8.jpg\" data-width=\"511\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536991/l/0afd03f8486888f762984fbf00297ef8.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6198.html\" title=\"〈中联油脂食安风暴〉沙拉油合格也没用？台糖高标准主动全面下架宣布停售封存\">〈中联油脂食安风暴〉沙拉油合格也没用？台糖高标准主动全面下架宣布停售封存</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10683.html\" title=\"威力德受惠检测需求稳健成长上半年获利1.32亿元EPS 2.9元创同期高\">威力德受惠检测需求稳健成长上半年获利1.32亿元EPS 2.9元创同期高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8453.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：台塑(1301-TW)EPS预估上修至2.53元，预估目标价为70元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：台塑(1301-TW)EPS预估上修至2.53元，预估目标价为70元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6119.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 晶心科(6533)6月营收3.72亿元年增率高达247.04％\">营收速报 - 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