【量大强涨股整理】地缘风险再起，台股杀千点失守四万四，台股震荡加剧，这「满地钻石」该怎么捡？

【元创精密】⊕再创新高!【4979 华星光】⊕领先预告! 台股震荡加剧，这「满地钻石」该怎么捡？

影片中分享给你知道
(按赞订阅打开小铃铛)
再来看一下今天的台股!

加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌 1195.97 点，收在 43654.84，成交量 7924.35 亿。

观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 609.50 亿元，投信买超 57.07 亿元，自营商卖超 111.51 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 663.94 亿元，其中，外资、自营商由买转卖，投信则连买二十三日共买超 2429.92 亿元。

美股周四四大指数同步收黑，市场在超级财报周持续消化科技巨头最新业绩，AI 概念股出现获利了结卖压，拖累那斯达克指数重挫逾 2%，费城半导体指数同步回落，标普 500 指数与道琼工业指数亦全面收低，市场主要担忧大型科技企业持续扩大 AI 资本支出，未来获利与自由现金流成长速度能否跟上投资规模仍有待观察，使高评价科技股面临修正压力，不过，(INTC-US) 英特尔，盘后公布第二季财报优于市场预期，每股盈余 EPS 达 0.42 美元、营收 161 亿美元，且第三季财测同步优于市场预估，加上 (AMD-US) 超微，新一代 Helios AI 系统全面量产，预计第三季底开始出货，年底更可望配合 OpenAI 展开大规模部署，(TXN-US) 德州仪器，公布第二季营收与获利亦双双优于市场预期，显示 AI 基础建设需求仍持续推升半导体产业成长动能，另一方面，中东地缘政治风险升温带动国际油价走高，市场再度担忧通膨压力升温，进一步压抑科技股评价，使全球股市避险情绪快速升高。

受到美股回档影响，台股今日同步开低走低，电子权值股普遍承压，重挫逾千点并回测季线，终场下跌 1195.97 点，收在 43654.84，成交量 7924.35 亿，台股今日呈现量缩震荡格局，虽然台股近期呈现上下冲洗的格局，主要在于在美股修正、国际市场风险偏好降温下，外资大举调节电子权值股，导致台股出现补跌走势；反观投信仍持续逢低布局，连续 23 日加码买进，显示内资对中长期基本面仍具信心，后续仍须观察美股能否止跌、外资资金流向，及下周企业法说会与国际政经情势变化，是否有助市场情绪回稳。

然而盘面并非全面转空，矽光子、光通讯、高速传输及部分 AI 伺服器概念股仍逆势吸引买盘，显示市场资金仍聚焦 AI 资料中心升级、高速网路建设及云端运算需求，相关供应链中长期成长趋势并未改变。

从基本面观察，台湾经济仍展现强劲韧性，中研院最新上修今年经济成长率至 10.16%，创下国内主要研究机构最高预估值，同时上市柜公司 6 月营收持续展现亮眼表现，外销订单达 952.6 亿美元，再创历史新高，年增 59%，已连续 17 个月正成长，反映 AI、高效能运算 HPC 及半导体需求依旧强劲，也代表企业接单能见度维持高档，为台股提供坚实基本面支撑。

展望后市，市场将聚焦美国联准会最新利率决议及主席谈话，借此观察后续降息时程与货币政策方向，此外，7 月 29 日将由 (MSFT-US) 微软，及 (META-US)Meta，率先公布财报，7 月 30 日则有 (AAPL-US) 苹果，及 (AMZN-US) 亚马逊，接棒登场，超级财报周结果将持续牵动全球 AI 供应链表现，同时，7 月 30 日至 8 月 1 日登场的 AI WAVE SHOW 全球人工智慧视觉展，也可望成为 AI 产业新技术与新商机的重要观察指标，整体而言，短线台股虽受美股修正与国际情势干扰，波动可能加剧，但 AI 产业长线成长趋势未变，在基本面稳健、企业获利持续成长及资金轮动支撑下，盘势仍以高档震荡偏多看待，操作上建议聚焦 AI 伺服器、半导体、高速传输、光通讯及具订单能见度的绩优族群，把握震荡整理后的布局机会。

权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，下跌 2.29%，收在 2350 元，传出将自 2027 年起调涨晶圆代工价格，先进制程涨幅约 5% 至 10%，高速运算 HPC 晶片订单甚至可能再加收 10% 至 15% 费用，成熟制程最高亦有望调升 10%，以反映材料、设备及海外扩产成本增加，对此，台积电表示不评论价格议题，强调定价采策略导向，持续与客户共同创造价值，在 AI 需求强劲、CoWoS 先进封装产能吃紧下，涨价有助提升获利能力，并支撑长期资本支出与营运成长 ;

(2317-TW) 鸿海，下跌 1.94%，收在 252.5 元，受惠 AI 伺服器需求强劲、云端与网通业务持续成长，第 2 季营收优于市场预期，并预估 8 月法说将释出更乐观展望，随着 AI 伺服器、ASIC 伺服器、LPU 机柜及新一代平台出货放量，外资同步上修 2026、2027 年营收与每股盈余预估，认为高毛利业务占比提升，有助获利能力持续改善，显示对鸿海 AI 布局与长期成长动能深具信心；

(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 3.23%，收在 3750 元，受惠市场传出 Google 积极布局新一代 AI 推论晶片「Frozen v2」，市场关注联发科是否有望再度切入 ASIC 供应链，带动股价跌深反弹，联发科除已参与 Google TPU 相关 I/O die 供应外，明年亦可望受惠 ASIC 晶片代工与后段封测投片需求提升，推升营收成长动能，短线技术面来看，股价出现反弹第一根确认 K 棒，市场气氛改善，后续若能站稳 3936 元 20 日均线并突破 4000 元，且成交量同步放大，有机会进一步挑战波段高点，AI ASIC 布局将成为中长期重要成长引擎。

2026.7.23 股市期皇后领先预告 (4979-TW) 华星光

(4979-TW) 华星光，407.5=>448，领先预告后 +10%，
华星光受惠 AI 资料中心持续扩建与高速光通讯需求升温，公司 400G ZR 模组及 CW Epi 加工业务稳定成长，推升营收与获利表现。展望 2026 至 2027 年，800G ZR 模组预计下半年放量出货，已取得北美大型 CSP 认证，将成为主要成长动能；同时 CW LD 需求受 Scale-Out 架构带动持续攀升，EML 雷射产品亦将于年底投产，形成三大成长引擎。随着 AI 基础建设与资料中心互连需求持续扩大，公司营运成长趋势明确，未来获利动能可望进一步提升。

2026.7.20 股市期皇后领先预告 (3685-TW) 元创精密

(3685-TW) 元创精密，37.65=>41，领先预告后 +9%，
元创精密以车用导光板及金属零组件为核心业务，近年积极布局绿能发电、能源管理与系统整合，朝能源控股方向转型，近期市场看好公司投资国瑞绿能、推动 120MW 绿能案场及自循环发电技术应用，加上单月营收持续成长、首季转亏为盈，带动股价走强，后续可观察绿能并购案、案场开发及大型订单是否如期落实，若相关计划顺利推进，将有助挹注中长期营运。

欢迎免费订阅
股市期皇后庄佳萤

https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

7/24

强势股分享

【上市量大上涨股】

(3669-TW) 圆展

(6969-TW) 成信实业 *- 创

(6243-TW) 迅杰

(2451-TW) 创见

(2634-TW) 汉翔

(6226-TW) 光鼎

(6669-TW) 纬颖

(6166-TW) 凌华

(8081-TW) 致新

(9921-TW) 巨大

(2615-TW) 万海

(4566-TW) 时硕工业

(2425-TW) 承启

(4904-TW) 远传

7/24

强势股分享

【上柜量大上涨股】

(6588-TW) 东典光电

(4707-TW) 磐亚

(3685-TW) 元创精密

(6577-TW) 劲丰

(6461-TW) 益得

(8111-TW) 立碁

(5321-TW) 美而快

(4979-TW) 华星光

(6138-TW) 茂达

(8383-TW) 千附

庄佳萤分析师:
每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!

股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤

LINE 官方帐号
LINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)
或是点击下方网址加入
https://lin.ee/9cyliMq

Youtube 影音频道精彩解盘影片不容错过!
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FB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】

https://goo.gl/kN2VKT

文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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亿元，投信买超 57.07 亿元，自营商卖超 111.51 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 663.94 亿元，其中，外资、自营商由买转卖，投信则连买二十三日共买", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/33ea7dd5446ba7ee89ff93e1bfdfa004.jpg", "content": "【元创精密】&oplus;再创新高!【4979 华星光】&oplus;领先预告! 台股震荡加剧，这「满地钻石」该怎么捡？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/33ea7dd5446ba7ee89ff93e1bfdfa004.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】地缘风险再起，台股杀千点失守四万四，台股震荡加剧，这「满地钻石」该怎么捡？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/QAk0f3fcLMM\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n影片中分享给你知道 \n(按赞订阅打开小铃铛) \n再来看一下今天的台股!\n\n加权指数今日开低走低，终场下跌 1195.97 点，收在 43654.84，成交量 7924.35 亿。\n\n观察三大法人今天筹码动向，外资卖超 609.50 亿元，投信买超 57.07 亿元，自营商卖超 111.51 亿元，三大法人合计卖超 663.94 亿元，其中，外资、自营商由买转卖，投信则连买二十三日共买超 2429.92 亿元。\n\n美股周四四大指数同步收黑，市场在超级财报周持续消化科技巨头最新业绩，AI 概念股出现获利了结卖压，拖累那斯达克指数重挫逾 2%，费城半导体指数同步回落，标普 500 指数与道琼工业指数亦全面收低，市场主要担忧大型科技企业持续扩大 AI 资本支出，未来获利与自由现金流成长速度能否跟上投资规模仍有待观察，使高评价科技股面临修正压力，不过，(INTC-US) 英特尔，盘后公布第二季财报优于市场预期，每股盈余 EPS 达 0.42 美元、营收 161 亿美元，且第三季财测同步优于市场预估，加上 (AMD-US) 超微，新一代 Helios AI 系统全面量产，预计第三季底开始出货，年底更可望配合 OpenAI 展开大规模部署，(TXN-US) 德州仪器，公布第二季营收与获利亦双双优于市场预期，显示 AI 基础建设需求仍持续推升半导体产业成长动能，另一方面，中东地缘政治风险升温带动国际油价走高，市场再度担忧通膨压力升温，进一步压抑科技股评价，使全球股市避险情绪快速升高。\n\n受到美股回档影响，台股今日同步开低走低，电子权值股普遍承压，重挫逾千点并回测季线，终场下跌 1195.97 点，收在 43654.84，成交量 7924.35 亿，台股今日呈现量缩震荡格局，虽然台股近期呈现上下冲洗的格局，主要在于在美股修正、国际市场风险偏好降温下，外资大举调节电子权值股，导致台股出现补跌走势；反观投信仍持续逢低布局，连续 23 日加码买进，显示内资对中长期基本面仍具信心，后续仍须观察美股能否止跌、外资资金流向，及下周企业法说会与国际政经情势变化，是否有助市场情绪回稳。\n\n然而盘面并非全面转空，矽光子、光通讯、高速传输及部分 AI 伺服器概念股仍逆势吸引买盘，显示市场资金仍聚焦 AI 资料中心升级、高速网路建设及云端运算需求，相关供应链中长期成长趋势并未改变。\n\n从基本面观察，台湾经济仍展现强劲韧性，中研院最新上修今年经济成长率至 10.16%，创下国内主要研究机构最高预估值，同时上市柜公司 6 月营收持续展现亮眼表现，外销订单达 952.6 亿美元，再创历史新高，年增 59%，已连续 17 个月正成长，反映 AI、高效能运算 HPC 及半导体需求依旧强劲，也代表企业接单能见度维持高档，为台股提供坚实基本面支撑。\n\n展望后市，市场将聚焦美国联准会最新利率决议及主席谈话，借此观察后续降息时程与货币政策方向，此外，7 月 29 日将由 (MSFT-US) 微软，及 (META-US)Meta，率先公布财报，7 月 30 日则有 (AAPL-US) 苹果，及 (AMZN-US) 亚马逊，接棒登场，超级财报周结果将持续牵动全球 AI 供应链表现，同时，7 月 30 日至 8 月 1 日登场的 AI WAVE SHOW 全球人工智慧视觉展，也可望成为 AI 产业新技术与新商机的重要观察指标，整体而言，短线台股虽受美股修正与国际情势干扰，波动可能加剧，但 AI 产业长线成长趋势未变，在基本面稳健、企业获利持续成长及资金轮动支撑下，盘势仍以高档震荡偏多看待，操作上建议聚焦 AI 伺服器、半导体、高速传输、光通讯及具订单能见度的绩优族群，把握震荡整理后的布局机会。\n\n权值股方面，(2330-TW) 台积电，下跌 2.29%，收在 2350 元，传出将自 2027 年起调涨晶圆代工价格，先进制程涨幅约 5% 至 10%，高速运算 HPC 晶片订单甚至可能再加收 10% 至 15% 费用，成熟制程最高亦有望调升 10%，以反映材料、设备及海外扩产成本增加，对此，台积电表示不评论价格议题，强调定价采策略导向，持续与客户共同创造价值，在 AI 需求强劲、CoWoS 先进封装产能吃紧下，涨价有助提升获利能力，并支撑长期资本支出与营运成长 ;\n\n(2317-TW) 鸿海，下跌 1.94%，收在 252.5 元，受惠 AI 伺服器需求强劲、云端与网通业务持续成长，第 2 季营收优于市场预期，并预估 8 月法说将释出更乐观展望，随着 AI 伺服器、ASIC 伺服器、LPU 机柜及新一代平台出货放量，外资同步上修 2026、2027 年营收与每股盈余预估，认为高毛利业务占比提升，有助获利能力持续改善，显示对鸿海 AI 布局与长期成长动能深具信心；\n\n(2454-TW) 联发科，下跌 3.23%，收在 3750 元，受惠市场传出 Google 积极布局新一代 AI 推论晶片「Frozen v2」，市场关注联发科是否有望再度切入 ASIC 供应链，带动股价跌深反弹，联发科除已参与 Google TPU 相关 I/O die 供应外，明年亦可望受惠 ASIC 晶片代工与后段封测投片需求提升，推升营收成长动能，短线技术面来看，股价出现反弹第一根确认 K 棒，市场气氛改善，后续若能站稳 3936 元 20 日均线并突破 4000 元，且成交量同步放大，有机会进一步挑战波段高点，AI ASIC 布局将成为中长期重要成长引擎。 \n\n2026.7.23 股市期皇后领先预告 (4979-TW) 华星光\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"278\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.9676258992805755\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/e833f4a9ccf69731199d335e0a58bb50.jpg\" data-width=\"547\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/e833f4a9ccf69731199d335e0a58bb50.jpg\"></figure>\n\n(4979-TW) 华星光，407.5=>448，领先预告后 +10%， \n华星光受惠 AI 资料中心持续扩建与高速光通讯需求升温，公司 400G ZR 模组及 CW Epi 加工业务稳定成长，推升营收与获利表现。展望 2026 至 2027 年，800G ZR 模组预计下半年放量出货，已取得北美大型 CSP 认证，将成为主要成长动能；同时 CW LD 需求受 Scale-Out 架构带动持续攀升，EML 雷射产品亦将于年底投产，形成三大成长引擎。随着 AI 基础建设与资料中心互连需求持续扩大，公司营运成长趋势明确，未来获利动能可望进一步提升。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"294\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.8843537414965987\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/d32e9f65adf89f22b4a214c6f1fafb8e.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/d32e9f65adf89f22b4a214c6f1fafb8e.jpg\"></figure>\n\n2026.7.20 股市期皇后领先预告 (3685-TW) 元创精密\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"363\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5261707988980717\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/124d8c816553301bd7b9569b10b3e010.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/124d8c816553301bd7b9569b10b3e010.jpg\"></figure>\n\n(3685-TW) 元创精密，37.65=>41，领先预告后 +9%， \n元创精密以车用导光板及金属零组件为核心业务，近年积极布局绿能发电、能源管理与系统整合，朝能源控股方向转型，近期市场看好公司投资国瑞绿能、推动 120MW 绿能案场及自循环发电技术应用，加上单月营收持续成长、首季转亏为盈，带动股价走强，后续可观察绿能并购案、案场开发及大型订单是否如期落实，若相关计划顺利推进，将有助挹注中长期营运。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"364\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.521978021978022\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/d7d48fd3ddec55e0b3059bcb5fea2b40.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/d7d48fd3ddec55e0b3059bcb5fea2b40.jpg\"></figure>\n\n欢迎免费订阅 \n股市期皇后庄佳萤\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\n7/24\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上市量大上涨股】\n\n(3669-TW) 圆展\n\n(6969-TW) 成信实业 *- 创\n\n(6243-TW) 迅杰\n\n(2451-TW) 创见\n\n(2634-TW) 汉翔\n\n(6226-TW) 光鼎\n\n(6669-TW) 纬颖\n\n(6166-TW) 凌华\n\n(8081-TW) 致新\n\n(9921-TW) 巨大\n\n(2615-TW) 万海\n\n(4566-TW) 时硕工业\n\n(2425-TW) 承启\n\n(4904-TW) 远传\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"499\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.1102204408817635\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/feba4aff5bd0bd0fedaf2e5c960d90d2.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/feba4aff5bd0bd0fedaf2e5c960d90d2.jpg\"></figure>\n\n7/24\n\n强势股分享\n\n【上柜量大上涨股】\n\n(6588-TW) 东典光电\n\n(4707-TW) 磐亚\n\n(3685-TW) 元创精密\n\n(6577-TW) 劲丰\n\n(6461-TW) 益得\n\n(8111-TW) 立碁\n\n(5321-TW) 美而快\n\n(4979-TW) 华星光\n\n(6138-TW) 茂达\n\n(8383-TW) 千附\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"501\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.1057884231536925\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/1ef1a1e789a88f56f3377a29d1a08ce5.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/1ef1a1e789a88f56f3377a29d1a08ce5.jpg\"></figure>\n\n庄佳萤分析师: \n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股，让投资朋友轻松追踪 2025 年年台股操作方向，相关详细内容请加入 Line@索取，免费提供给您!\n\n股市期皇后证期双分析师庄佳萤\n\nLINE 官方帐号 \nLINE ID 搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略) \n或是点击下方网址加入 \n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a>\n\nYoutube 影音频道精彩解盘影片不容错过! \n(记得按赞，订阅并打开小铃铛)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/lnLmKx3dlUo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n \nFB 粉丝团:【股市期皇后】\n\n\n<a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"361\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4155124653739612\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/m/47b885e6d62608ea9cb1f4353c960775.jpg\" data-width=\"511\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545152/l/47b885e6d62608ea9cb1f4353c960775.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源: 摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10079.html\" title=\"能率亚洲IPO 以来首发拟发行1.6万张办现增股募集5.76亿元\">能率亚洲IPO 以来首发拟发行1.6万张办现增股募集5.76亿元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6338.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 全达(8068)6月营收1.52亿元年增率高达181.71％\">营收速报 - 全达(8068)6月营收1.52亿元年增率高达181.71％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6011.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 久元(6261)6月营收3.90亿元年增率高达33.71％\">营收速报 - 久元(6261)6月营收3.90亿元年增率高达33.71％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11771.html\" title=\"强茂交期拉长至52周，数据透露功率半导体供需失衡，下半年营收有机会大成长吗?\">强茂交期拉长至52周，数据透露功率半导体供需失衡，下半年营收有机会大成长吗?</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10696.html\" 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