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【最佳买点快到了?】台股失守季线!本周这两天最关键

2026-09-30 22:55:36 网络 阅读(85)

Intel 第二季营收年增 25%,获利及财测双双优于市场预期,但周五股价依旧下跌 7.8%,拖累科技类股普遍下跌;只有苹果受到 iPhone 折叠机即将上市的预期带动,股价持续挑战新高。四大主要指数周线同步收黑,显示资金仍在高估值科技股与传产、防御型族群之间快速轮动。

【最佳买点快到了?】台股失守季线!本周这两天最关键

然而,美伊战争迟迟无法结束,川普再次威胁将扩大对伊朗的攻击,本周原油价格一度突破百元关卡,黄豆、玉米、小麦等原物料同步上涨,通膨升温疑虑仍高。

本周四美国 Fed 将召开利率会议,市场对升息的预期提高,股市有可能持续修正。加上近期 Google、特斯拉、Intel 等重量级科技大厂公布财报后,无论财报好坏,最终股价都是下跌;下周三星、海力士、微软等重量级科技大厂也将公布财报,股价下跌的机率仍高。

不过,AI 带来的产业趋势并没有改变,中长线股市仍是多头,但短线可能出现明显修正,建议一定要低买、高卖,便宜买好股!

台股上周五开高走低,终场大跌 1195.97 点,收在 43654.84 点,成交金额约 7942 亿元;台积电 (2330-TW) 收在 2350 元,电子权值股与热门主流股同步修正。这波下跌主要受到美国升息预期升高、外资持续撤出台湾,加上融资余额仍高达 5770 亿元影响,盘面筹码仍然过度凌乱。

从技术面来看,月线、季线失守,短线上方卖压沉重,KD 指标也再度向下形成死亡交叉,MACD 更落入零轴多空分界线之下,短线偏向空方修正。特别是美伊战争造成原油价格上涨,本周四美国 Fed 利率会议即使升息机率不高,但若释出鹰派言论,预告未来可能升息,加上同一天又是摩台结算,市场波动恐进一步加剧,可能造成股市出现明显下修。预计周四、周五如果台股出现大跌,可能会是绝佳的长线买点。

个股方面,下周焦点仍是科技巨头财报与 AI 资本支出。Microsoft、Meta、Amazon 若持续扩大资料中心投资,可留意 AI 伺服器与散热供应链,包括鸿海 (2317-TW)、广达 (2382-TW)、纬创 (3231-TW)、纬颖 (6669-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、双鸿 (3324-TW);SK 海力士财报则将牵动 HBM 与记忆体族群,可观察南亚科 (2408-TW)、华邦电 (2344-TW)、群联 (8299-TW)、威刚 (3260-TW)、宜鼎 (5289-TW)。先进制程与封测仍可留意台积电 (2330)、日月光投控 (3711)、京元电子 (2449-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)。但现在不是比谁买得快,而是等待量缩止跌、站回短均线后再分批布局;保留现金不是看空,而是为下一波真正安全的买点做好准备。

➤鼎极操盘手 何基鼎 LINE 粉丝团

https://lin.ee/iuxMCJU

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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