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避险情绪增 债券配置更显重要 首选推全球复合债基金

2026-09-13 10:43:54 阅读(181)

川普宣布新任联准会主席人选华许(Kevin Warsh)后,华许过往偏向鹰派的态度导致市场降息预期大减,股市与贵金属、加密货币等均出现震荡回调,债市表现相对温和,其中新兴与边境债市仍持续走高。 野村投信表示,无论由谁担任美联储主席,在美国经济表现强韧、通胀受控有望缓降的环境下,美国利率走低是必然的趋势。 随着股市高档震荡机率上升,波动度相对较低的债券配置更显重要,建议选择复合债基金,灵活掌握各类型债券投资机会。
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野村投信投资策略部楼克望副总经理表示,联准会1月份利率会议如市场预期维持利率不变,联准会(FED)本次按兵不动,主要是因评估美国经济展望转强,有鉴于美国经济展望升级,且短期内央行独立性不受影响,虽然让市场下调短期内降息机率,但非投资级债等风险性资产有望因基本面转佳而获得支撑。 另外,特朗普在1月30日宣布新任美联储主席华许后,引起金融市场震荡,美元转强、美债收益率走高。 不过,继任人选确定后,未来货币政策的不确定性下降,加上华许近期曾批评美联储降息太慢,因为他相信源自AI的生产力提升将压低通膨,因此,经济表现仍是决定利率政策方向的关键因素。

楼克望指出,受惠于AI强劲需求带动,不少股市自2026年以来涨势惊人,虽然持续看好AI前景,但因股市估值位于相对高档,预期波动度也会跟着升高。 因此,在投资组合纳入债券资产以降低波动风险变得更加重要。 历经2022-2024年债市震荡后,债券收益率已攀升,面对不确定的市场,投资人可淡定享受孳息,且美国在降息压低短期利率后,庞大的货币市场资金可望重新寻找新收益来源,高收益率的新兴债、非投资等级债最有机会受惠。

野村基金(爱尔兰系列)全球多元收益债券投资团队指出,全球景气维持成长步调,中长期而言风险性资产将大幅上涨,但短期内经济正在降温、风险性资产价格处于历史高点,加上战争尚未停止,资产价格仍可能受影响而波动,因此,看好高殖利率债券,并可搭配积极进攻型债券,另外,保持高流动性与建立避险部位也相当重要。

在债券的配置上,建议可以加码欧洲的金融债、新兴市场债券以及可转换公司债。 近年来金融监管水平提高使银行基本面更加稳健,大型金融机构基本面强、信评佳,适合做为投资组合核心资产; 新兴市场债也是高殖利率债券的另一个优质选择,例如今年刚加入欧元区的保加利亚欧元计价主权债,以及同样具备加入欧盟题材的罗马尼亚主权债,另外也看好在大选结束后政治秩序重回轨道,并且财政赤字逐步扭转、财政纪律提升的南非主权债。 至于可转换债券,和股市具有联动性同时保有债券特性,让固定收益投资者得以参与股市的投资机会,可做为多元化报酬来源的工具。

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font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: initial; display: block; color: rgb(144, 144, 144); max-width: 100%; width: 650px; text-align: start;\"><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\">图片来源:shutterstock</span></figcaption></figure></div>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, \"Noto Sans TC\", \"Pingfang TC\", \"Microsoft Jhenghei\", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: initial; display: block; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\">\n<p _msthash=\"52\" _msttexthash=\"14315388581\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\">     野村投信投资策略部楼克望副总经理表示,联准会1月份利率会议如市场预期维持利率不变,联准会(FED)本次按兵不动,主要是因评估美国经济展望转强,有鉴于美国经济展望升级,且短期内央行独立性不受影响,虽然让市场下调短期内降息机率,但非投资级债等风险性资产有望因基本面转佳而获得支撑。 另外,特朗普在1月30日宣布新任美联储主席华许后,引起金融市场震荡,美元转强、美债收益率走高。 不过,继任人选确定后,未来货币政策的不确定性下降,加上华许近期曾批评美联储降息太慢,因为他相信源自AI的生产力提升将压低通膨,因此,经济表现仍是决定利率政策方向的关键因素。</span></p>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, \"Noto Sans TC\", \"Pingfang TC\", \"Microsoft Jhenghei\", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: initial; display: block; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\">\n<p _msthash=\"54\" _msttexthash=\"7658395329\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\">     楼克望指出,受惠于AI强劲需求带动,不少股市自2026年以来涨势惊人,虽然持续看好AI前景,但因股市估值位于相对高档,预期波动度也会跟着升高。 因此,在投资组合纳入债券资产以降低波动风险变得更加重要。 历经2022-2024年债市震荡后,债券收益率已攀升,面对不确定的市场,投资人可淡定享受孳息,且美国在降息压低短期利率后,庞大的货币市场资金可望重新寻找新收益来源,高收益率的新兴债、非投资等级债最有机会受惠。</span></p></section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, \"Noto Sans TC\", \"Pingfang TC\", \"Microsoft Jhenghei\", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: initial; display: block; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\">\n<p _msthash=\"55\" _msttexthash=\"4539858102\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\">     野村基金(爱尔兰系列)全球多元收益债券投资团队指出,全球景气维持成长步调,中长期而言风险性资产将大幅上涨,但短期内经济正在降温、风险性资产价格处于历史高点,加上战争尚未停止,资产价格仍可能受影响而波动,因此,看好高殖利率债券,并可搭配积极进攻型债券,另外,保持高流动性与建立避险部位也相当重要。</span></p></section>\n<section style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variant-emoji: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.7; font-family: Lato, \"Noto Sans TC\", \"Pingfang TC\", \"Microsoft Jhenghei\", Arial, VideoJS, sans-serif; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: initial; display: block; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: justify; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;\">\n<p _msthash=\"56\" _msttexthash=\"12129368069\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial;\"><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\">     在债券的配置上,建议可以加码欧洲的金融债、新兴市场债券以及可转换公司债。 近年来金融监管水平提高使银行基本面更加稳健,大型金融机构基本面强、信评佳,适合做为投资组合核心资产; 新兴市场债也是高殖利率债券的另一个优质选择,例如今年刚加入<a _istranslated=\"1\" href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial; color: rgb(0, 129, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;\">欧元</a>区的保加利亚<a _istranslated=\"1\" href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: initial; color: rgb(0, 129, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;\">欧元</a>计价主权债,以及同样具备加入欧盟题材的罗马尼亚主权债,另外也看好在大选结束后政治秩序重回轨道,并且财政赤字逐步扭转、财政纪律提升的南非主权债。 至于可转换债券,和股市具有联动性同时保有债券特性,让固定收益投资者得以参与股市的投资机会,可做为多元化报酬来源的工具。</span></p></section></section><span style=\"font-family:宋体;\"> </span></body></html><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2273.html\" title=\"玉山投信首档ETF首创严选票息7.5%以上高息债券8成聚焦美国企业\">玉山投信首档ETF首创严选票息7.5%以上高息债券8成聚焦美国企业</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2277.html\" title=\"你适合买基金还是买股票?基金和股票有什么不同\">你适合买基金还是买股票?基金和股票有什么不同</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2272.html\" title=\"对冲基金买进亚股规模创10年新高作多力道8.4倍碾压空单\">对冲基金买进亚股规模创10年新高作多力道8.4倍碾压空单</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2269.html\" title=\"奶粉罐里藏黄金寄出?一场“投资”差点让她血本无归\">奶粉罐里藏黄金寄出?一场“投资”差点让她血本无归</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2270.html\" title=\"黄金投资骗局盯上退休族 这六个信号就是陷阱标记\">黄金投资骗局盯上退休族 这六个信号就是陷阱标记</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/home/jijin/jjrm/article-2271.html\" title=\"美期中选举倒数基金专家:2026多元配置稳中求胜\">美期中选举倒数基金专家:2026多元配置稳中求胜</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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