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"title": "Fed鹰派声浪踩煞车！威廉斯：升息理由还不够",
"shortTitle": "Fed鹰派声浪踩煞车！威廉斯：升息理由还不够",
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"description": "美国联准会(Fed)三把手、纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)周三(2日)表示，近期通膨数据令人鼓舞，随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退，通膨正缓慢下降，目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。",
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"content": "<p>美国联准会(Fed)三把手、纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)周三(2日)表示，近期通膨数据令人鼓舞，随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退，通膨正缓慢下降，目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6595689/l/86c61612d2c2005104c70df0f1b33373.jpg\" alt=\"Fed鹰派声浪踩煞车！威廉斯：升息理由还不够\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>威廉斯接受《CNBC》访问时指出，目前推升物价的主要因素仍是关税，以及中东冲突造成的能源价格上涨，部分服务业通膨也依然偏高。不过，能源成本上升尚未扩散至其他服务项目，Fed也未观察到关税引发第二轮通膨效应，通膨预期仍受到控制。</p>\n\n<p>威廉斯说：「最近的数据令人鼓舞。」随着部分关税影响逐渐成为过去，通膨趋势正缓慢下滑，但目前仍无法确定现行货币政策是否足以确保未来一至两年内让通膨回到目标，或Fed是否必须采取进一步行动。</p>\n\n<p>威廉斯支持联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月维持利率不变的决定，并认为目前利率处于适当位置，足以平衡充分就业与物价稳定的双重使命。不过，他强调Fed仍在搜集大量数据，之后必须重新评估政策立场。</p>\n\n<p>Fed将于9月15日至16日在华盛顿召开利率会议，此前今年已连续5次按兵不动。7月会议有3名具投票权的官员主张升息1码，显示决策官员对政策限制程度看法不一。期货市场一度反映，Fed本月将利率提高1码至3.75%至4%的机率约达三分之二，但威廉斯的谈话显示，升息仍非板上钉钉。</p>\n\n<p>身为Fed决策核心人物，威廉斯的立场通常代表政策辩论中的中间派看法。Fed在会议前还将取得一份最新通膨报告，市场也将关注Fed理事华勒(Christopher Waller)周四(3日)的谈话。</p>\n\n<p>对于近期长期公债殖利率上升，威廉斯认为，主要反映美国经济与成长前景强劲，以及AI、资料中心和科技领域的庞大投资需求，而非通膨失控或市场出现信用疑虑。</p>\n\n<p>他表示，若未来出现持续性的生产力繁荣，确实可能推升不刺激也不抑制经济的中性利率，但目前尚未看到足够证据。威廉斯估计中性利率约为1%，实质利率虽略有上升，幅度仍相当有限。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13768.html\" title=\"日银审议委员高田创释鹰派讯号 暗示加速升息步伐\">日银审议委员高田创释鹰派讯号 暗示加速升息步伐</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13755.html\" title=\"美伊冲突与利率疑虑夹击 比特币跌至7.7万美元 需求转负引发警讯\">美伊冲突与利率疑虑夹击 比特币跌至7.7万美元 需求转负引发警讯</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13802.html\" title=\"AI军备竞赛带来发债潮抢夺资金 加剧全球债市抛售\">AI军备竞赛带来发债潮抢夺资金 加剧全球债市抛售</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13724.html\" title=\"纽西兰央行再度升息1码至2.75% 释放鸽派紧缩讯号 纽元走跌\">纽西兰央行再度升息1码至2.75% 释放鸽派紧缩讯号 纽元走跌</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13810.html\" title=\"〈财报前瞻〉市值蒸发5200亿美元 博通能靠AI财测上演辉达式大涨？\">〈财报前瞻〉市值蒸发5200亿美元 博通能靠AI财测上演辉达式大涨？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13725.html\" title=\"植田和男释放9月升息强烈讯号！日银升息预期近100%、日债殖利率飙近30年高\">植田和男释放9月升息强烈讯号！日银升息预期近100%、日债殖利率飙近30年高</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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