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"title": "澳盛银行：关税恐慌+南美供应紧+新能源刚需 铜价2027初恐涨破1.5万美元创历史新高",
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"description": "澳盛银行(ANZ)出具最新研究报告指出，在美国关税预期、南美矿山供应承压以及全球需求韧性的影响下，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜价格今年底恐上看每吨14500美元，明年初挑战15000美元，刷新历史纪录。 LME三个月期铜价格周四(3日)报价约14245美元，逼近今年1月创下的新高，今年累计上涨15%。 核心推力在美国政策预期。市场猜测川普政府或对精炼铜进口加征关税，引发「抢运美国」套利。 美国铜价高于LME基准，贸易商将大量阴极铜输往美国仓库，导致美国保税与交割库存飙升至新高纪录，LME可",
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"content": "<p>澳盛银行(ANZ)出具最新研究报告指出，在美国关税预期、南美矿山供应承压以及全球需求韧性的影响下，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜价格今年底恐上看每吨14500美元，明年初挑战15000美元，刷新历史纪录。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6596557/l/b4357076330598b1a3cec69e3a6bda24.jpg\" alt=\"澳盛银行：关税恐慌+南美供应紧+新能源刚需 铜价2027初恐涨破1.5万美元创历史新高\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>LME三个月期铜价格周四(3日)报价约14245美元，逼近今年1月创下的新高，今年累计上涨15%。</p>\n\n<p>核心推力在美国政策预期。市场猜测川普政府或对精炼铜进口加征关税，引发「抢运美国」套利。</p>\n\n<p>美国铜价高于LME基准，贸易商将大量阴极铜输往美国仓库，导致美国保税与交割库存飙升至新高纪录，LME可流通库存则持续缩减。</p>\n\n<p>ANZ分析师Soni Kumari与Daniel Hynes指出，铜持续流入美国「扰乱全球供需格局」，海外现货趋紧、期货价格高于现货价格幅度进一步扩大。</p>\n\n<p>此外，智利、秘鲁矿山品味下降、社区抗议与水荒导致的限产问题未获解决，新增产能释放慢于预期。</p>\n\n<p>需求方面，电动车、电网、资料中心与风光装置维持高增速，铜杆线消费无断档。</p>\n\n<p>ANZ表示，若关税正式落地，短期内美国内外价差恐进一步撕裂，但若预期落空，库存回流LME则可能导致价格回档，但「绿色基建+AI电力」的中期紧平衡仍支撑着价格上移。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13937.html\" title=\"10年债飙破4.81%！美债市场天翻地覆 五位策略师给出应对之策\">10年债飙破4.81%！美债市场天翻地覆 五位策略师给出应对之策</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13938.html\" title=\"日银有意9月升息1码至1.25% 不排除加快脚步\">日银有意9月升息1码至1.25% 不排除加快脚步</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13974.html\" title=\"日元飞速飙升 日银本次并未大规模干预 空军畏战主动平仓\">日元飞速飙升 日银本次并未大规模干预 空军畏战主动平仓</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-14000.html\" title=\"印度被曝要拆换中国通讯设备 帐单30亿美元\">印度被曝要拆换中国通讯设备 帐单30亿美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13973.html\" title=\"全球债市暴跌暂歇 欧澳公债殖利率自高点回落\">全球债市暴跌暂歇 欧澳公债殖利率自高点回落</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-13986.html\" title=\"黄金期货触及关键技术价位 「对折回档」策略成交易焦点\">黄金期货触及关键技术价位 「对折回档」策略成交易焦点</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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