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地缘政治冲突加剧 IEA:2026年全球原油供应缺口将扩大

2026-09-11 21:15:08 网络 阅读(1)

国际能源总署(IEA)周五(11日)发表最新每月石油市场报告指出,由于中东冲突未见停息迹象,波斯湾地区原油正常流量的复苏时程将延后至2027年,导致2026年全球原油供应缺口进一步扩大。

地缘政治冲突加剧 IEA:2026年全球原油供应缺口将扩大

报告显示,IEA 将2026年全球原油供应量的降幅预测大幅上调,预估每日将减少570万桶(约下降6%),高于先前预估的4%降幅。

在需求方面,受到高燃油价格压抑,今年全球原油需求预估每日减少250万桶,较8月预测的160万桶降幅更为剧烈。相对地,石油输出国组织(OPEC)则持不同看法,预估今年全球需求仍将每日成长38万桶,但两大机构皆预期需求将在2027年出现反弹。

受地缘政治袭击与美对伊封锁影响,OPEC+ 的8月原油产量每日减少180万桶至3,880万桶,其中沙乌地阿拉伯供应量每日减少230万桶至600万桶,创下逾30年来最低水准。

此外,红海与荷姆兹海峡等关键航道的运油轮频受袭击,推升国际原油价格攀升至每桶100美元以上,柴油等精炼油品价格更创历史新高。

面对供给加速缩减,全球原油库存正以创纪录速度消耗,8月每日减少310万桶。IEA 在报告中警示:「库存迄今在平衡市场方面发挥了关键作用。然而随着缓冲空间缩小,加上全球炼油系统运作已达极限,解决中东冲突以及已进入第5年的俄乌战争之需求比以往任何时候都更加迫切,以避免市场进一步紧缩与需求破坏。」

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      "shortTitle": "日本8月PPI年增7.6%高于预期 巩固央行9月升息预期",
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      "description": "日本央行最新公布数据显示,日本8月批发物价指数(PPI)持续处于高位,年增率超出市场预期,显示通膨压力居高不下,进一步巩固了日本央行于本月升息的合理性。",
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