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战争、百元油价、美债狂飙三大逆风都扛住 基金经理：新兴市场可承受Fed升息风险

2026-09-15 06:49:39 网络 阅读（1）

尽管今年以来全球面临战争、国际油价突破每桶1百美元及美债殖利率攀升等逆风，新兴市场资产仍展现韧性，投资人普遍认为涨势有望延续。

战争、百元油价、美债狂飙三大逆风都扛住 基金经理：新兴市场可承受Fed升息风险

近期油价再度跳涨，加上美国最新通膨数据强于预期，强化市场对联准会(Fed)本周可能升息的预期，新兴市场资产短线承压。

不过，多位基金经理人仍抱持信心，主要因为新兴市场政策可信度已明显改善，企业获利维持强劲，更重要的是美元大幅反弹的风险有限。历史经验显示，美元走强向来是新兴市场的主要压力来源。

MFS Investment Management高级董事总经理 Benoit Anne说，「我没看到新兴市场亮起任何警报」，并强调Fed升息前景「对新兴市场而言并不是什么大事」，与以往升息周期不同，市场对美国政策可信度的担忧正压制美元走势，「这会减轻新兴市场可能受到的冲击」。

目前，Anne看好南非、哥伦比亚与匈牙利等国的本币债券。

整体而言，尽管短线波动难免，新兴市场基本面与政策环境的改善，使其具备抵御外部紧缩压力的条件，资金配置意愿未见明显消退。

市场普遍预期，Fed本周将开启三年多来的首次升息，但本次利率决议的博弈激烈程度，或许远超投资人押注所反映的情况。

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